Climate Change Vulnerability and Health: understanding local community vulnerability to aid adaptation planning 气候变化脆弱性与健康 : 了解地区共同体的脆 弱性以完善适应性规划 Professor Scott Baum Scott Baum 教授 Principle Research Fellow 城市规划项目中的核心课题 Urban Research Program

Outline of talk 讲座要点  The importance of local approaches  局部方法的重要性  Developing indicators of local community vulnerability  地区共同体脆弱性的发展指标  Spatial/ socio-economic indices and GIS approaches  空间 / 社会经济指标和地理信息系统方法  Local community indicators and adaptation planning  地区共同体与适应性计划

The importance of local approaches 局部方法的重要性 When dealing with issues such as human health or urban planning and management we must understand adaptation issues from a local level perspective 当处理诸如人类健康, 城市规划和管理等 问题时, 我们应该从局部的视角来理解适 应性的问题 Vulnerability continuum

The importance of local approaches 局部方法的重要性

When dealing with issues such as human health or urban planning and management we must understand adaptation issues from a local level perspective 当处理诸如人类健康, 城市规划和管理等问题时, 我们应该从局部的视角来理解适应性的问题 This calls for a local or community level approach to measuring vulnerability and developing and understanding adaptation issues 这就要求从局部和共同体出发来衡量脆弱性, 发展, 同时更好地理解适应性的问题. Vulnerability continuum

Integrated assessment approach 综合评价法 Initial and ongoing stakeholder engagement 最初的和持续的利益 相关者的参与 Regional/ aggregate vulnerability assessment 区域 / 总脆弱性评估 Local spatial vulnerability assessment 局部空间脆弱性评估 Locally focused stakeholder scenario workshops: Vulnerabilities Risks Opportunities 当地为重点的利 益相关者的情况讲习班： 漏洞 风险 机会 Adaptation plans and approaches 适应性计划和方法 Multiple methods and approaches 多种方法和途径

Local spatial vulnerability assessment 局部空间脆弱性评估  Hazards of place or place vulnerability approach  场所的危害或者说场所脆弱性的方法  Interplay between bio-physical geography and social geography  生物物理地理和社会地理的相互影响  Several alternative methods  一些替代的方法  Index development  发展指标  Using GIS to create data layers  利用地理信息系统创建数据层  Outcomes are the same → indicators of vulnerability hot spots  结果是相同的 → 脆弱性的热点指标 –Hot spot analysis used in several stages of the vulnerability assessment and development of adaptation issues – 热点分析用于脆弱性评估和适应性问题发展的不同阶段

Local spatial vulnerability assessment 局部空间脆弱性评估 Exposure 风险 Sensitivity 敏感度 Potential impact 潜在影响 Adaptive capacity 适应能力 Vulnerability 脆弱性

Local spatial vulnerability assessment 局部空间脆弱性评估 Exposure 风险 Sensitivity 敏感度 Potential impact 潜在影响 Adaptive capacity 适应能力 Vulnerability 脆弱性 The exposure of a system of interest to stimuli that act on that system 利益系统的风险在 于刺激其作用于该 系统 The responsiveness of a system to climate hazards 系统对于气候灾害 的反应 The ability of a system to change in a way that makes it better able to cope with potential impact 一个系统自我改善以 更好适应潜在影响的 能力

Local spatial vulnerability assessment 局部空间脆弱性评估 Exposure 风险 Sensitivity 敏感度 Potential impact 潜在影响 Adaptive capacity 适应能力 Vulnerability 脆弱性 The exposure of a system of interest to stimuli that act on that system 利益系统的风险在 于刺激其作用于该 系统 The responsiveness of a system to climate hazards 系统对于气候灾害 的反应 The ability of a system to change in a way that makes it better able to cope with potential impact 一个系统自我改善以 更好适应潜在影响的 能力

 Need to operationalise measures with reference to wider information/stakeholders 参考更广的信息和参与者，需要 operationalise 的 措施  Quite often stakeholders have important information that can be beneficial to the development of the indicators 很多时候，参与者能够提供许多有利于指标开发的 重要信息  Future versus current 将来与当前 Local spatial vulnerability assessment 局部空间脆弱性评估

 Data issues/availability are an important consideration  数据的可得到性需要重点考虑  Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity all need to be measured at the ‘local level’  曝光度, 敏感度以及适应能力都必须在当地水平下进 行衡量  The diversity of data sources, formats, and spatial scales can require reconciliation to a common spatial reference before data can be integrated  在数据整合之前，需要对数据来源、形式以及空间尺 度的多样化进行协调，以形成一个共同的空间参照 Local spatial vulnerability assessment 局部空间脆弱性评估

Index building approach 指标建立方法 Small scale spatial Index accounting for degrees of relative vulnerability 衡量脆弱性的小规模地区 指标

Exposure a necessary but not sufficient condition driving vulnerability 在必要但不充分的条件下衡量 的脆弱性 The sum of the social factors 社会因素之和 Index building approach

Map layers approach 图形演示 Uses Geographic Information Systems to build up layers of interest 应用地理图形信息 系统建立重要信 息层

Map layers approach 图表演示

Local spatial vulnerability assessment 局部空间脆弱性评估

Local community indicators and adaptation planning 局部地区指标及适应性规划  Use local vulnerability maps to:  应用本地区脆弱性示意图 :  Drill down to areas of ‘interest’  深入研究重点区域  Identify case study localities  区别研究不同地区个案  Develop broader at risk community profiles  更广泛的发展风险共同 体  Develop local scenarios  建立地区性方案

 The vulnerability map can also become another information layer:  本地区脆弱性示意图所 支持的其他信息层 :  On-line decision support systems  即时决策支持系统  Part of the on-going disaster management risk assessment program and updated as needed  灾难即时处理系统及 其更新的必要部分 Local community indicators and adaptation planning 局部地区指标及适应性规划

 Stakeholder workshops  相关工厂  Designed to identify risks, vulnerabilities and opportunities  为明确风险、脆弱性以及机会而设计  Indicators of local vulnerability assessment become an integral tool of adaptation planning workshops  地区脆弱性评估指标是制定完整的适应性计划的 有力工具 Local community indicators and adaptation planning 局部地区指标及适应性规划

End of Talk 结 束