Company Confidential/Proprietary A Regional Prototype System for a National Problem Chesapeake Inundation Prediction System Bridging the Gap from Forecast to Impact Presented to: MARACOOS Annual Meeting 15 December 2011

What Emergency Managers Get Now Current Text Storm Surge Forecast

What Emergency Managers Want Where will it flood? When will it flood? How deep will it be? How long will it last? What is the uncertainty in the forecast? Forecast Impact

From Forecast … To Impact MATURING TECHNOLOGY Regional scale atmospheric wind forecast model Very high-resolution hydrodynamic models with land flooding Very high-resolution land elevation data (LIDAR) Emerging GIS and visualization capabilities for integrated, high- resolution pictures and products Bridging the Gap

Company Confidential/Proprietary Project Management: Chesapeake Bay Observing System (CBOS)/Old Dominion University Chesapeake Research Consortium Atmospheric Modeling and Validation: NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices –Wakefield, VA; Sterling, VA; Mt. Holly, NJ WeatherFlow, Inc. Hydrodynamic and Hydrologic Modeling and Validation: Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William & Mary University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science (UMCES) Horn Point Laboratory NOAA NWS Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center Overland Inundation Validation: USGS Water Science Centers in VA and MD USGS Office of Surface Water, Reston, VA Visualization and Validation: Noblis, Inc. Economic Valuation and User Engagement: UMCES Chesapeake Bay Laboratory CBOS/Old Dominion University Data Management and Communications: NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office Project Management: Chesapeake Bay Observing System (CBOS)/Old Dominion University Chesapeake Research Consortium Atmospheric Modeling and Validation: NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices –Wakefield, VA; Sterling, VA; Mt. Holly, NJ WeatherFlow, Inc. Hydrodynamic and Hydrologic Modeling and Validation: Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William & Mary University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science (UMCES) Horn Point Laboratory NOAA NWS Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center Overland Inundation Validation: USGS Water Science Centers in VA and MD USGS Office of Surface Water, Reston, VA Visualization and Validation: Noblis, Inc. Economic Valuation and User Engagement: UMCES Chesapeake Bay Laboratory CBOS/Old Dominion University Data Management and Communications: NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office Chesapeake Inundation Prediction System (CIPS) Partners Chesapeake Inundation Prediction System (CIPS) Partners

CIPS Components Forecast wind fields Forecast major river discharge Forecast on-land flooding Forecast on-land flooding Visualize on-land flooding NWS Weather Forecast Office NWS offices WeatherFlow Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center VIMS UMCES Noblis Guidance to brief emergency management Data Management System – NOAA CBO, ASA Transmit forecast Retrieve wind field and river discharge forecasts Transmit flooding forecast Retrieve flooding forecast Transmit visualized flooding forecast Retrieve visualized flooding forecast Validate land flooding USGS Economic Evaluation - UMCES

Alexandria Richmond Norfolk Annapolis Washington Hampton Baltimore CIPS Forecast Demonstration Veteran’s Day Nor’easter November 2009 Veteran’s Day Nor’easter November 2009 Potomac River James River Chesapeake Bay Delaware Bay Susquehanna River

Nor’Ida Storm Tide - NOAA CO-OPS Data Nov 10-13, 2009 Nor’Ida Storm Tide - NOAA CO-OPS Data Nov 10-13, 2009 Watch Issued Warning Issued Minor Moderate Major Tue Wed Thu Fri

Coastal Flood Watch Issued 4 AM Tue Nov 10, AM EST TUE NOV COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A COMBINATION OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH AND REMNANTS OF IDA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WILL ALLOW AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. THE APPROACHING NEW PHASE OF THE MOON...IN TANDEM WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW...WILL LEAD TO INCREASING TIDAL ANOMALIES OF AROUND 2 TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL... BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE IN THE WEEK. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY. 408 AM EST TUE NOV COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A COMBINATION OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH AND REMNANTS OF IDA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WILL ALLOW AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. THE APPROACHING NEW PHASE OF THE MOON...IN TANDEM WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW...WILL LEAD TO INCREASING TIDAL ANOMALIES OF AROUND 2 TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL... BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE IN THE WEEK. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY.

Company Confidential/Proprietary Forecast Impact 10 Flooded Area All three forecasts Two of three forecasts One of three forecasts Hampton Newport News Norfolk Virginia Beach James River Poquoson Portsmouth Langley AFB Chesapeake Hampton Roads Chesapeake Bay Bridge-Tunnel Chesapeake Bay Atlantic Ocean Naval Base Norfolk Nor’Ida Maximum Flooding

Company Confidential/Proprietary Forecast Validation 11 Poquoson Flooded Area All three forecasts Two of three forecasts One of three forecasts

Company Confidential/Proprietary Flooding Forecast with Uncertainty 12 Flooded Area All three forecasts Two of three forecasts One of three forecasts Langley AFB

Company Confidential/Proprietary Flooding Forecast with Uncertainty 13 Flooded Area All three forecasts Two of three forecasts One of three forecasts

Company Confidential/Proprietary Flooding Forecast with Uncertainty 14 Flooded Area All three forecasts Two of three forecasts One of three forecasts Poquoson Hampton Newport News

Company Confidential/Proprietary Flooding Forecast with Uncertainty 15 Flooded Area All three forecasts Two of three forecasts One of three forecasts

Company Confidential/Proprietary Flooding Forecast with Uncertainty 16 Flooded Area All three forecasts Two of three forecasts One of three forecasts

Company Confidential/Proprietary Flooding Forecast with Uncertainty 17 Flooded Area All three forecasts Two of three forecasts One of three forecasts

Company Confidential/Proprietary Flooding Forecast with Uncertainty 18 Flooded Area All three forecasts Two of three forecasts One of three forecasts Where Jay Titlow Lives

Jay’s Home Poquoson High School Public Works Dept Police Dept Fire Dept Public Works Dept Fire Dept

Company Confidential/Proprietary Flooding Forecast with Uncertainty 20 Jay’s Home Public Works Dept Fire Dept Police Dept Poquoson High School Flooded Area All three forecasts Two of three forecasts One of three forecasts

Company Confidential/Proprietary Flooding Forecast with Uncertainty 21 Jay’s Home Public Works Dept Fire Dept Police Dept Poquoson High School Flooded Area All three forecasts Two of three forecasts One of three forecasts

From Forecast… To Impact Bridged the Gap