HFIP Regional Ensemble Call Audio = 1-866-764-4240 Passcode = 2370326# 16 September 2011 1800 UTC.

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Presentation transcript:

HFIP Regional Ensemble Call Audio = Passcode = # 16 September UTC

Tools for measuring overall NWP improvement, forecast skill of HFIP regional ensemble output.  Accuracy of ensemble mean track  Accuracy of ensemble mean intensity  Correlation of ensemble track spread to ensemble mean track error  Correlation of ensemble intensity spread to ensemble mean intensity error  Reliability of probabilistic intensity forecasts (Talagrand)?  Continuous Rank Probability Score (CRPS) for intensity forecasts?  Area under the ROC curve for intensity forecasts?  Structure (Veren et. al.)? HFIP Regional Ensemble Metrics

Tools for measuring goodness of ensemble for use in data assimilation.  Ratio of ensemble variance to ensemble forecast error variance (how big is alpha, re: need for inflation?)  Size of radius of influence (is it 2-3x the forecast error scales?)  Estimate sampling error (how to do this?) Tools for measuring impact on forecasters from HFIP regional ensemble output.  Number of mentions in NHC discussions HFIP Regional Ensemble Metrics

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