KBC Group Sanford Bernstein Conference Merrill Lynch Conference 28 September 2005 - 5 October 2005 Web site: www.kbc.com.

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Presentation transcript:

KBC Group Sanford Bernstein Conference Merrill Lynch Conference 28 September October 2005 Web site:

2 This presentation is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security KBC believes that this presentation is reliable, although some information may be condensed or incomplete This presentation contains forward-looking statements with respect to our earnings development involving assumptions and uncertainties. The risk exists that these statements may not be fulfilled and that future results differ materially. By receiving this presentation, each investor is deemed to represent that it possesses sufficient expertise to understand the risks involved Important information

3 Introduction: strategic framework The strategic framework entails: Focused business scope:  Retail-, bancassurance- and wealth-management-oriented  Geographical focus on Belgium and CEE and selected Western European markets Standalone basis:  no M&A ambitions (neither domestic, nor cross-border - neither as acquirer, nor as target)  however, opportunistic operational alliances possible in certain areas to generate cost advantages through scale (‘industralization’ of operations) Solid level of financial strength/solvency Attractive shareholder return, including steady dividend growth

4 Introduction: business mix KBC is a top bancassurer and asset manager in Belgium and has successfully expanded its operations in CEE-5, its 2nd home market Recently, private banking has become more of a key focus. The PB business was expanded to include a Western European network. Revenu - geographical breakdown (1H 2005) Belgium : - retail bancassurance - asset management - private banking - commercial banking (SME/corporate) CEE : - retail bancassurance - asset management - private banking - commercial banking (SME/corporate) Selected other markets (mostly in W. Europe): - private banking - commercial banking (SME/corporate) - capital markets

5 Business mix: growth profile Main facts: 70% of gross income is realized in markets with leading market positions (i.e. Belgium and most CEE countries) An increasing share of income (currently 30%) is generated in high-growth markets (CEE) Key strategic topics: Topic 1: securing growth trend in (mature) Belgian market, given its size Topic 2: further increasing share in high-growth markets, inter alia, by boosting market power in countries where KBC has sub-optimal scale (mainly Poland) LOW Market growth potential LOWHIGH Private banking Belgium Retail Belgium Commercial banking Belgium Slovenia Czech Rep. Hungary Poland HIGH Slovakia Market share International commercial banking European private banking Based on KBC estimates

6 Business mix: value profile LOW Allocated capital LOWHIGH Private banking Belgium Retail bancassurance Belgium Commerial banking Belgium Bancassurance CEE HIGH Retun on allocated capital International commercial banking European private banking Based on selective 1H2005 data, adjusted for one-offs Main facts: 85% of capital employed is allocated to businesses yielding 20% or more (roughly twice the cost of capital) – no activity is value-destroying On the other hand: 15% of total capital base (2.3 bn) is ‘immediate free surplus’ capital Key strategic topics: Topic 3: shifting European private banking into much higher gear Topic 4: adequately employing excess capital

7 Do not underestimate market potential: KBC Group is well positioned: Savings ratio amongst highest in the world (every year, ca. 15% of GDP flows into fin. assets) Market highly receptive to cross-selling of AM & insurance, fueling strong growth trend in AM and life insurance business Strong mortgage growth trend (ca. 10% per year) expected to continue, as residential property price levels are still below other European markets After a temporary surge of price competition (late 2004/early 2005), epecially for interest-bearing products, pricing rationality is tending to be restored Fee rates for retail banking services only 50% of European average (gradual increase expected) Top-3 market position, esp. strong in Northern region (one of the wealthiest regions in the EU) Innovative product offering in retail AM (steadily increasing market share over the past 10 yrs.) Still high cross-selling potential for insurance products and well-performing bancassurance distribution model Well-diversified revenue structure (50% fee income) and further increase in fee income targeted (e.g. in SME/corporate) Of the top players, level of customer satisfaction is high(est) Topic 1: drivers for growth, Belgium

8 Mid-term financial outlook, Belgium Gross incomeC/I, bankingLLRNet profit Retail5% CAGRLow 60s< 0.25%>10% CAGR Business customers >2% on RWA< 43%< 0.35%>10% CAGR

9 Strong market-growth momentum: KBC Group is well positioned: Topic 2: growth drivers in CEE  Nom. GDP growth in at 6.5% yearly, outgrowing EMU by 3-3.5%  Ongoing catch-up in product penetration (currently, on avg., only 45% of the population has a bank account and 5% a mortgage loan)  Mortgage volumes growing at double-digit pace (up by 32%, annualized, in 1H05)  Financial sector could grow five-fold if financial assets to GDP were to reach current levels of S. Europe  Solid market position in retail and corporate businesses with nationwide branch networks  Competitive advantage in enhancing cross-selling of asset management and insurance products and well positioned in HNWI and private banking through epb know-how Availability of capital within the Group for: buy-out of third-party interests or selective bolt-on M&A more aggressive organic growth in Poland since immediate M&A opportunies are not expected Potential entrance into Romanian market

10 Bancassurance fueling CEE earnings KBC Cross-sell rates 2004 CZHUPLSKBE Consumer loan X Life 83%50%100%94%67% Mortgage loan X Life 45%50%100%75%67% Mortgage loan X Property insurance 54%71%42%30%50% Now the model is in place: Transfer of know-how and streamlining of business processes and IT systems Implementation of KBC’s distribution model and setting up of sales incentives and adequate sales approach Unified management responsibility (joint management committee of bank and insurance) = competitive advantage relative to other CEE players Cross-selling results are encouraging:

11 Growth in AM fueling CEE earnings KBC is well positioned: Strong appetite for ‘risk-free’ investments in the market, fully in line with KBC’s core competencies and successful track record in Belgium for capital-guaranteed funds Cost/AUM below average (around 15 bps vs. 20 bps for Europe) = competitive advantage relative to other CEE players Results are encouraging: AUM grew in 1H05 by 40%, annualized. Continued high growth expected in coming years Via the funds business, new customers are being recruited. Existing customers who use deposits to buy funds replenish their deposit accounts after one year Market share H05Trend CZ19%22%26%+++ HU8%9%11%++ SK6%7%8%+ SLO-8%10%++ PL3%4% +

12 Mid-term financial outlook, CEE RWA CAGR Net profit CAGR Loan-loss ratio Cost/Income ratio Banking10% – 15% < 0.50%< 60% Premium income CAGR Net profit CAGR Combined ratio Insurance15% – 25%25% - 35%95% AUM growth, mutual funds AUM growth, pension producs AM15% – 20%10% - 20%

13 Topic 3 : value drivers in private banking Dual brand strategy: network-led vs. ‘independent boutique’ Growth drivers: network trade-up, extension of product offering and hiring of private bankers Business model: integrated private banking business in selected European markets focusing on clients with >€1m of investable assets. The network has been built over the past few years via separate acquisitions. Operations need to be further integrated. Total assets currently amount to 76 bn (Sep-05) Integrated network of local pure-play private banking brands (boutique style) Priority of reducing costs by creating synergies within a central ‘hub’ Growth drivers: increased share of wallets, hiring of PB managers and opportunistic M&A Low-growth market, focus on profitability (leveraging the hub) If possible, steer repatriated assets to KBC onshore Small today, but strong market growth expected (>15% p.a.) Strengthening a network-led model, leveraging Belgian experience BelgiumW. Europe onshoreW. Europe offshoreCEE AUM expected to growth at 9% CAGR on an organic basis. Opportunistic acquisitions may imply investments of m per year AUM 28 bn AUM 27 bn AUM 18 bn AUM 3 bn

14 €m * Synergy benefits defined as peak recurring annual increase in pre-tax bottom-line result ( peak level) Cross sales New business Optimi- zation Pro- cure- ment People Source of benefits* Costs avoided Total The KBC-Almanij merger enables synergies to be achieved via cost-cutting and cross-selling. The total benefit amounts to 75 m euros (pre-tax) per year (50% will already be realized as of 2006) Merger synergies in private banking

15 The private banking hub Centralized global custody services, processing/settlement of international payments and processing of financial market transactions (for all major asset classes i.e., Cash, Bonds, Equities, Funds, Structured Products) Full harmonization of major IT tools Front-office support: product sourcing and design capability and ‘Centres of Excellence’ Back office: great majority of local back-office costs eliminated Dealing rooms: a minimum level of local market activities will remain IT: only local IT support will remain Significant reduction in other overheads Organizational impact Our endgame vision of the hub Cost/income ratio to be improved from 67% (2004) to 55%

16 Mid-term financial outlook, private banking AUM growthNet profitCost/Income Private Banking9% CAGR *10% CAGR< 55% *14% Belgium, 15% CEE, 0% offshore and 10% W. Eur. onshore

17 Topic 4: valuing excess capital Capital position Available capital 1 Surplus capital 2 Immediate free surplus 3 Total14.7 bn4.3 bn2.3 bn Internal capital budget requirements Deleveraging of the holding company0.4 – 0.6 bn Buy-out of 3 rd parties in CEE0.8 – 1.3 bn External growth in CEE1.0 – 2.0 bn Total2.2 – 3.9 bn 1 Regulatory capital under Basel I/Solvency I (incl. hybrids and minority interests, after elimination of intangibles and goodwill), based on capital position as at 30/03/ Difference between available capital and internal minimum level 3 Surplus capital excl. expected adverse IFRS impact on Tier-1 banking as of 2006 (ca. 0.6 bn), unrealized gains on tied-up assets (insurance, 0.8 bn) and value of Agfa-Gevaert Immediate free surplus capital amounts to 2.3 bn, primarily to be spend in CEE KBC currently conducting ‘due diligence’ for BCR in Romania. Outcome expected to be known in the coming months

18 Conclusion: growth and value proposition LOW Market growth LOWHIGH Private banking Belgium Retail Belgium Commercial banking Belgium Slovenia Czech Rep. Hungary Poland HIGH Slovakia Market share International commercial banking European private banking Based on KBC estimates Selective approach Efficiency enhancement Third-party buy-outs Acceleration of bancassurance/AM Assessment of entrance into Romania (by end 2005) Higher share of wallet Higher margin products Organic growth acceleration M&A (mid-term) Attractive growth and value proposal within current franchises. Main focus is on execution - shift to completely new markets/business lines unlikely Use of excess capital highly dependent on outcome of privatization round in Romania

19 Conclusion: growth and value proposition The ‘growth and value’ outlook is reflected in ambitious mid-term financial targets: Outlook for 2005: On the basis of the solid 1H 05 earnings and the prevailing view regarding the relevant economic and financial parameters, KBC’s 2005 net profit is expected to exceed the10% growth level, amounting to more than 2 bn euros Efficiency:Cost/income, banking Combined ratio, non-life max. 58% max. 95% Financial strength:Tier-1, banking Solvency margin, insurance min. 8% min. 200% Value creation:Adjusted ROE EPS growth (CAGR) min. 16% min. 10%

Appendices Foto gebouw

21 Market cap ranking in Euroland 1 BSCH (63 bn) 2 BNP Paribas (53 bn) 3 BBVA (47 bn) 4 Deutsche Bank (39 bn) 5 Société Générale (39 bn) 6 ABN AMRO (37 bn) 7 Crédit Agricole (33 bn) 8 Fortis (31 bn) 9 Unicredit (29 bn) 10 KBC (25 bn) 11 Intesa BCI (23 bn) 12 Dexia (20bn) 13 San Paolo IMI (18 bn) 14 HVB (17 bn) 15 Allied Irish Banks (16 bn) 16 Bank Austria (13 bn) 17 Commerzbank (13bn) 18 Mediobanca (12 bn) 19 Bank of Ireland (12 bn) 20 Bco Popular (12 bn) August 2005 DJ Euro Stoxx Banks constituents

22 Shareholder structure CERA/Almancora 27.1% (own shares: 2.3%, including ESOP hedge) Other committed shareholders 11.7% MRBB 11.6% Free float 47.3% KBC is majority-owned by a group of committed shareholders, thereby providing continuity for the pursuit of long- term strategic goals Core shareholders include the Cera/Almancora Group (co-operative investment company), a farmers’ association (MRBB) and a syndicate of industrialist families Situation as at 30 June 2005

H1 25% KBC’s presence in CEE CEE profit contribution to KBC Group Retail 57% Other 22% SME/Corp 21% Share of business segments in gross income, CEE Banking Profit contribution, CZ + SK m162 m Czech Republic Total assets, bank: 18 bn EUR Market share, bank: 21% (No. 2) Market share, life: 8% (No. 5) Market share, non-life: 4% (No. 6) Profit contribution, Poland m25 m Total assets, bank: 5 bn EUR Market share, bank: 5% (No. 8) Market share, life: 3% (No. 7) Market share, non-life: 11% (No. 2) Profit contribution, Hungary m31 m Total assets, bank: 7 bn EUR Market share, bank: 11% (No. 2) Market share, life: 4% (No. 7) Market share, non-life: 4% (No. 6) Slovakia Total assets, bank: 2 bn EUR Market share, bank: 6% (No. 4) Market share, life: 4% (No. 8) Market share, non-life: 2% (No. 7) Profit contribution, Slovenia m26 m Minority stake (34%) Market share, bank: 41% (No. 1) Market share, life: 6% (No. 5)

24 Group income statement, 1H 2005 (in m euros)BankingInsuranceAM KBL epb GevaertHoldingGroup Net interest income Gross earned premium, insurance Dividend income Net gains from FI at FV Net realised gains from AFS assets Net fee and commission income Other income Gross income Operating expenses Impairments - o/w on loans and receivables - o/w on AFS assets Gross technical charges, insurance Ceded reinsurance result Share in results, associated companies Profit before taxes Income tax expense Minority interests Net profit Excl. intrasegment eliminations

25 Areas of activity overview, 1H 2005 (in m euros)RetailCEESME/ Corp. MarketsKBL epbGevaertTotal Banking and AM Gross income Operating expenses Impairments Income tax expense Minority interests Net profit – group share Insurance Gross income (- tech. chg.) Operating expenses Impairments Income tax expense Minority interests Net profit – group share Holding Co Net profit – group share 633 Group total Net profit – Group share Share in group result ROAC % 29% % 54% % 20% 106 8% 28% 94 8% 16% 63 5% 11% % Excl. non-allocated results

26 Valuation weighted P/E unweighted P/E CEE banks CEE-exposed banks Euro-zone banks KBC BEL banks Key figures: Share price: 66.6 euros Net asset value: 40.0 euros 1H 2005 EPS: 3.50 euros Analysts’ estimates: EPS consensus: 5.97 (+33% y/y) 2006 EPS consensus: 6.24 (+4% y/y) P/E: 10.9 Recommendations: Positive: 42% Neutral: 42% Negative: 16% Valuation relative to peer group: Weighted and unweighted averages of IBES data : 2 OTP, Komercni, Pekao, BPH PBK, BRE 3 BA-CA, Erste, Unicredit, Soc. Gen., Intesa BCI 4 Top-20 DJ Euro Stoxx Banks 5 Fortis, Dexia Situation as at 18 August Smart consensus collected by KBC (18 estimates)

27 Contact information Investor Relations Office Luc Cool Nele Kindt Marina Kanamori Surf to for the latest update.