Region and sector specific HFC scenarios and effects of MP proposals (RIVM) The Netherlands Region and sector specific HFC scenarios and effects of MP proposals Guus Velders (PhD) RIVM, NL David Fahey (PhD) NOAA, USA John Daniel (PhD) NOAA, USA Stephen Andersen (PhD) IGSD, USA Mack McFarland (PhD) Dupont/ Chemours, USA Bangkok, OEWG35, April 22, 2015

Take home message New HFC scenarios: 11 regions, 13 sectors, 10 HFCs Business-as-usual emissions 4.1-5.5 GtCO2-eq/yr 2050 9-31% of increase in annual CO2 emissions from 2010 to 2050 Mainly in developing countries in refrigeration and stationary AC Regulations in EU, USA and Japan reduce their national 2050 emissions by 45-75% Montreal Protocol Amendment proposals reduce 2050 emissions by 50-90% Global adoption of technologies required to meet national regulations are sufficient meet North American proposal by 50% or more for most countries by 2050 Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

New HFC scenarios Starting point: Need for consistent and robust data Large growth rates in observed mixing ratios of most HFCs Growth in HCFC consumption (UNEP) HCFC phase-out in Montreal Protocol Expected growth in demand for HFCs for refrigeration, AC, etc. National regulation: EU, USA, Japan, etc. Montreal Protocol amendment proposals Need for consistent and robust data Communicate in support of decision making process Scenarios (1990-2050) Business-as-usual scenarios Effects of national regulations Effects of proposed amendments CO2-eq consumption and emissions, Radiative forcing Montzka et al. (2015) Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

Building blocks of the HFC scenarios Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

Details of the business-as-usual scenarios Historical consumption developed countries UNFCCC/CRF: Emissions and stocks per country, sector, HFCs, year  consumption data and emission factors “Complete” for all refrigeration and air conditioning sectors Limited information for foams, aerosols, fire extinguishing, solvents Historical consumption developing countries Published consumption data for China All countries: Additional HFC consumption for mobile AC, domestic refrigeration Historical HCFC consumption from UNEP Replacement of HCFCs with HFCs and not-in-kind alternatives Refrigeration and AC: HCFC-22  R-404A, R-410A, NIK (10%) Foams: HCFC-141b  HFC-245fa/365mfc, NIK (50%) HCFC-142b  HFC-134a, NIK (50%) Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

Details of the business-as-usual scenarios (2) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) Framework for assessing impacts, adaptation and mitigation of climate change Forms the underlying layer of IPCC/RCP scenarios Five storylines Data for 32 regions Developed countries: HFC demand grows with population Developing countries: HFC demand grows with Gross Domestic Product GDP Saturation of consumption Per capita use in developing countries assumed to not exceed per capita use in USA Applied per sector Export of HFCs contained in equipment taken into account Consumption constrained by observed mixing ratios Global mean data of HFC-32, HFC-125, HFC-134a, HFC-143a Used mainly for refrigeration and air conditioning Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

Emissions inferred from observations Robust information Inferred from observed global mean mixing ratios Bottom-up emission Calculated from consumption data and emission factors About 50% from reported UNFCCC data in developed countries Significant contributions from developing countries in recent years Consumption adjusted In new scenarios the gap is closed by adjusting the consumption Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

HFC scenarios: CO2-eq emissions Main contributions from HCFC replacements Projections of HFCs emissions in 2050: ~20% from historical HFCs in developed countries ~17% from historical HFCs in developing countries ~63% from replacements of HCFCs in developing countries Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

HFC scenarios: CO2-eq emissions (2) Main contributions from HCFC replacements Projections of HFCs emissions in 2050: ~20% from historical HFCs in developed countries ~17% from historical HFCs in developing countries ~63% from replacements of HCFCs in developing countries Saturation limits emissions past 2025 Consumption per capita in developing countries limited Limits reduce A5 emissions from 4.3-8.1 GtCO2-eq/yr to 3.3-4.5 GtCO2-eq/yr in 2050 Non-A5 emissions are 0.9-1.0 GtCO2-eq/yr in 2050 Total emissions 4.1-5.5 GtCO2-eq/yr in 2050 Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

Business-as-usual emissions for each region Major 2050 emissions from developing countries Historical emissions mainly from USA and EU China is projected to be largest emitter in 2020 Major regions in 2050 China (31%) Other Asian countries (16%) USA (11%), Middle East - N. Africa (11%) Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

Business-as-usual consumption Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

Business-as-usual emissions per region CO2-eq emissions Main non-A5 regions: USA, EU Main A5 regions: China, other Asian countries Main sectors: ICR: Industrial and commercial refrigeration SAC: Stationary AC MAC: Mobile AC (only for non-A5) Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

Comparison with other scenarios Velders et al. (2009) Differences in growth rates IPCC/SRES and SSPs Now specific data for 32 regions Region specific data yield earlier saturation in consumption for regions RCP (2011)/IPCC scenarios Business-as-usual and strong mitigation Based on older information HFC baseline vs CO2 RCP6-RCP8.5 scenarios 6-12% of annual CO2 emissions in 2050 9-31% of increase in annual CO2 emissions from 2010-2050 6-9% of CO2 RF in 2050 12-23% of increase in CO2 RF from 2010-2050 Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

National/regional regulations Regulations in force or proposed EU: Revised F-gas regulation + MAC directive USA: Proposed changes to SNAP list Japan: F-gas controls Also discussion in Canada, Australia Some assumption were made on how much HFC use in sector is covered by these regulations Effects of the national regulation on the local emissions National regulation will drive global technological changes Effects of the national regulation on emissions in developed and developing countries Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

Emissions from the EU Revised EU F-gas regulation + MAC directive Bans on high-GWP HFC use for Domestic and commercial refrigeration Stationary AC Mobile AC Foams, aerosols Phase-down to 21% of base level in 2030 Reductions in 2050 emissions: 17% from MAC 48% from bans in other sectors 10% from phasedown Total 75% or 0.10-0.13 GtCO2-eq/yr Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

Emissions from the USA Proposed changes to SNAP list USA Bans on high-GWP HFC use for: Commercial refrigeration Mobile AC Foams, aerosols Reductions in 2050 emissions: 20% from MAC 27% from other sectors Total 47% or 0.22-0.29 GtCO2-eq/yr Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

Emissions from Japan F-gas controls Japan Limits on average GWP of HFCs for: Domestic and commercial refrigeration Stationary AC Mobile AC Foams, aerosols Reductions in 2050 emissions: 15% from MAC 38% from other sectors Total 53% or 0.04 GtCO2-eq/yr Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

Montreal Protocol amendment proposals North American countries (2015) Non-A5 parties: phasedown from 90% in 2019 to 15% of base level in 2036 A5 parties: freeze in 2021, phasedown to 15% of base level in 2046 India (2015) Non-A5 parties: freeze in 2016, phasedown to 15% in 2035 A5 parties: freeze in 2031, phasedown to 15% in 2050 EU (2015) Non-A5 parties: phasedown from 85% in 2019 to 15% of base level in 2034 A5 parties: production: freeze in 2019, phasedown to 15% of base level in 2045 consumption: freeze of the combined HFC + HCFC consumption as of 2019 Federated Stated of Micronesia (2014) Non-A5 parties: phasedown from 85% in 2017 to 10% of base level in 2035 No base level and phasedown schedule defined for A5 parties Assumption made here for base level: 100% of HCFCs 2014-2016, 100% of HCFC+HFCs 2014-2016 Assumption made here for phasedown: delay by 5, 10, 15 years relative to non-A5 parties Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

Emission reductions following MP proposals Amendment proposals reduce 2050 emissions by 50-90% All HFCs in a sector scaled down; replaced by substance/technology with GWP of 10 Proposals have similar effects for non-A5 parties Differences in proposals for A5 parties: Controls not formulated for all proposals Assumptions made in the scenarios Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

Emission reductions following MP proposals Amendment proposals reduce 2050 emissions by 50-90% All HFCs in a sector scaled down; replaced by substance/technology with GWP of 10 Proposals have similar effects for non-A5 parties Differences in proposals for A5 parties: Controls not formulated for all proposals Assumptions made in the scenarios Radiative forcing projected to decrease after 2035, or after 2050 Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

Regional impacts of regulations vs MP proposals Reductions in national emissions bridge the gap in part EU: Regulations sufficient to reduce emissions to MP targets USA: Proposed SNAP change reduces emissions to about half the MP proposals No limits for stationary AC Japan: Regulations reduce emissions by about two-thirds of the MP proposals Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

Global impacts of national regulations New technologies being developed to meet national regulations Global adoption of technologies required to meet national regulations is likely Developing countries assumed to follow developed countries after 5 years Comparison with North American MP amendment proposal Consumption and emissions more or less stabilize Radiative forcing continues to increase Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

Proposals to MP met in part by regulations Global effects of technologies National regulations applied globally (5 years later for A5 parties) Effects on reductions in cumulative consumption (2015-2050) relative to North American proposal Reductions meet North American proposal by 50% or more for most countries by 2050 Following current/proposed regulations alone Differences between countries due to differences in HFC use in sectors and regulations Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

Conclusions New HFC scenarios for 11 regions, 13 sectors, 10 HFCs Business-as-usual emissions 4.1-5.5 GtCO2-eq/yr 2050 9-31% of annual increases in CO2 emissions from 2010 to 2050 Main regions: China (31%), rest of Asia (23%) in 2050, USA (11%) Main sectors: refrigeration (36-59%), stationary AC (21-35%) Regulations in EU, USA and Japan reduce national 2050 emissions by 45-75% Montreal Protocol Amendment proposals reduce 2050 emissions by 50-90% Global adoption of technologies required to meet national regulations are sufficient meet NA proposal by 50% or more for most countries by 2050 Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

Thank you Questions or request? Status of this work: “to be published” The effects of other regulations and Montreal Protocol proposals can be estimated Thank you Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

Business-as-usual emissions: non-A5 countries CO2-eq emissions Small increases due to HCFC phase-out Past 2020 growth following population Main regions: USA, EU Main sectors: ICR: Industrial and commercial refrigeration SAC: Stationary AC; MAC: Mobile AC Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

Business-as-usual emissions: A5 countries CO2-eq emissions Growth proportional to GDP Differences between regions: Economic growth (GDP) Saturation for some sectors Main regions: China, other Asian countries Main sectors: ICR, stationary AC Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

Business-as-usual consumption: non-A5 countries CO2-eq consumption Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

Business-as-usual consumption: A5 countries CO2-eq consumption Guus Velders, April 22, 2015