1 Ch. 15 Managing Service Projects

2 常見的專案問題 1. 畢專：開學前完成計畫書（ Gantt 圖） 2. 畢旅，或系學會規劃運管營及交通盃 3. 借鏡：訪談本系主辦運輸年會之經驗，老 師提國科會計畫案 4. 包括哪些 activity ？ Critical path ？

3 Learning Objectives 1. the nature of project management (PM) 2. project network and critical path analysis 3. activity crashing: Cost-time Tradeoff 4. incorporating uncertainty in activity times

4 1. The Nature of PM zCharacteristics purpose, life cycle, interdependencies, uniqueness, and conflict. zProcess planning (work breakdown structure, WBS), scheduling, and controlling. zSelecting the Project Manager credibility, sensitivity, ability to handle stress, and leadership.

5 1. The Nature of PM zBuilding the Project Team Forming, Storming, Norming, and Performing. zPrinciples of Effective PM direct people individually and as a team, reinforce excitement, keep everyone informed, manage healthy conflict, empower team, encourage risk taking and creativity. zProject Metrics Cost, Time, Performance

6 1. PM Questions (4W1H) zWhat activities are required to complete a project and in what sequence? zWhen should each activity be scheduled to begin and end? zWhich activities are critical to completing the project on time? zWhat is the probability of meeting the project completion due date? zHow should resources be allocated to activities?

7 2. Techniques for PM 1. Gantt chart 2. Project network

8 2. Tennis Tournament Activities ID Activity Description Network Immediate Duration Node Predecessor (days) 1 Negotiate for Location A Contact Seeded Players B Plan Promotion C Locate Officials D Send RSVP Invitations E Sign Player Contracts F 2,3 4 7 Purchase Balls and Trophies G Negotiate Catering H 5,6 1 9 Prepare Location I 5, Tournament J 8,9 2

9 Notation for Critical Path Analysis Item Symbol Definition Activity duration t The expected duration of an activity Early start ES The earliest time an activity can begin if all previous activities are begun at their earliest times Early finish EF The earliest time an activity can be completed if it is started at its early start time Late start LS The latest time an activity can begin without delaying the completion of the project Late finish LF The latest time an activity can be completed if it is started at its latest start time Total slack TS The amount of time an activity can be delayed without delaying the completion of the project

10 Scheduling Formulas ES = EFpredecessor (max) (1) EF = ES + t (2) LF = LSsuccessor (min) (3) LS = LF - t (4) TS = LF - EF (5) TS = LS - ES (6) or

11 Activity on Node Diagram J2J2 B8B8 START A2A2 C3C3 D2D2 G4G4 E 10 I3I3 F4F4 H1H1 TS ESEF LSLF

12 Early Start Gantt Chart ID Activity Days Day of Project Schedule A Negotiate for 2 Location B Contact Seeded 8 Players C Plan Promotion 3 D Locate Officials 2 E Send RSVP 10 Invitations F Sign Player 4 Contracts G Purchase Balls 4 and Trophies H Negotiate 1 Catering I Prepare Location 3 J Tournament 2 Personnel Required Critical Path Activities Activities with Slack

13 Resource Leveled Schedule ID Activity Days Day of Project Schedule A Negotiate for 2 Location B Contact Seeded 8 Players C Plan Promotion 3 D Locate Officials 2 E Send RSVP 10 Invitations F Sign Player 4 Contracts G Purchase Balls 4 and Trophies H Negotiate 1 Catering I Prepare Location 3 J Tournament 2 Personnel Required Critical Path Activities Activities with Slack

14 3. Costs for Hypothetical Project Cost (0,0) Schedule with Minimum Total Cost Duration of Project Total Cost Indirect Cost Opportunity Cost Direct Cost

15 Cost-Time Estimates Time Estimate Direct Cost Expedite Cost Activity Normal Crash Normal Crash Slope A B C D E F G H － I J Total 115

16 Activity Cost-time Tradeoff C C*C* D*D* D Activity Duration (Days) Normal Crash Slope is cost to expedite per day Cost

17 Progressive Crashing Project Activity Direct Indirect Opportunity Total Duration Crashed Cost Cost Cost Cost 20 Normal Normal Duration After Crashing Activity Project Paths Duration A-C-D-G-I-J 16 A-C-E-I-J 20 A-C-E-H-J 18 A-C-F-H-J 12 B-F-H-J 15

18 4. Incorporating Uncertainty in Activity times A M D B F(D) P(D<A) =.01 P(D>B) =.01 optimistic most pessimistic likely TIME

19 Formulas for Beta Distribution of Activity Duration 1. Expected Duration 2. Variance Note: (B - A )= Range or

20 Activity Means and Variances Activity A M B D V A B C D E F G H I J 2 2 2

21 Uncertainly Analysis Assumptions 1. Use of Beta Distribution and Formulas For D and V 2. Activities Statistically Independent 3. Central Limit Theorem Applies ( Use “student t” if less than 30 activities on CP) 4. Use of Critical Path Activities Leading Into Event Node Result Project Completion Time Distribution is Normal With: For Critical Path Activities

22 Completion Time Distribution Critical Path Activities D V A 2 4/36 C 3 4/36 E /36 I 3 36/36 J 2 0 = /36 = 5.2 =

23 Question What is the probability of an overrun if a 24 day completion time is promised? 24 P (Time > 24) = =.04 or 4% Days

24 Discussion: Applying Theory of Constraints (TOC) to PM zWhy does activity safety time exist and is subsequently lost? 1. The “student syndrome” procrastination phenomena. 2. Multi-tasking muddles priorities. 3. Dependencies between activities cause delays to accumulate. zBuffer: Reduce by ½ all activity durations > 3 days to eliminate safety time zSoftware: Project 2000

25 Exercise Prepare a work breakdown structure (WBS) for a homecoming dance.