The educational attainment phenotype Matt McGue Department of Psychology University of Minnesota Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Global Working Group University of Chicago

Father Mother Offspring #1 Offspring #2 Initially Assessed in Adolescence Offspring Types: Monozygotic (MZ) Twins Dizygotic (DZ) Twins Biological Siblings Adopted Siblings MCTFR: Sampling unit

The educational attainment phenotype: Aggregates strongly in families for environmental as well as genetic reasons With intergenerational mobility associated with gender, cohort and hard and soft skills Environmental transmission within families may not be due skill building

College graduation patterns in MTFS both typical and atypical of the US WomenMen Parent Generation 25.4% (N=1372) 27.7% (N=1369) Offspring Generation 50.7% (N=1283) 35.5% (N=1121) Based on census data analyzed by Population Reference Bureau

... and educational attainment aggregates strongly in families MZDZ Mother- Offspring Father- Offspring Mother- Father Correlation.83 (.78,.88).73 (.63,.81).46 (.40,.51).50 (.45,.56).69 (.63,.74)

... due to both genetic and shared environmental factors SourceDescription Percentage variance accounted for Additive GeneticHeritability33% Shared Environment Environmental factors that differ among families 39% Non-shared Environment Environmental factors that distinguish among relatives in the same family 17% Gene-environment Covariance Correlation between additive genetic and shared environmental factors 12%

The educational attainment phenotype: Aggregates strongly in families for environmental as well as genetic reasons With intergenerational mobility associated with gender, cohort and hard and soft skills Environmental transmission within families may not be due skill building

Individual-level predictors of offspring academic success Age-17 PredictorDescription Hard Skill General Cognitive Ability (GCA) 4 Weschler subtests: Vocabulary & Information Block Design & Picture Arrangement Soft Skills Academic Motivation (rated by parent) Sample Items: Is motivated to earn good grades Turns in homework on time Positive Emotionality MPQ Primary Scales: Well Being, Social Closeness Achievement & Social Potency Negative Emotionality MPQ Primary Scales: Aggression, Alienation & Stress Reactivity Control MPQ Control scale Externalizing Sum of symptoms of: Antisocial behavior & substance abuse

All are associated with college graduation Unadjusted OR General Cognitive Ability 2.02 (1.83, 2.22) Academic Motivation 2.50 (2.23, 2.80) Positive Emotionality 1.42 (1.29, 1.56) Negative Emotionality 0.73 (0.67, 0.80) Control 1.83 (1.67, 2.01) Externalizing 0.54 (0.50, 0.60) Sex 1.84 (1.52, 2.22)

... even when adjusting for all other factors Unadjusted ORAdjusted OR General Cognitive Ability 2.02 (1.83, 2.22) 1.75 (1.55, 1.97) Academic Motivation 2.50 (2.23, 2.80) 2.02 (1.76, 2.01) Positive Emotionality 1.42 (1.29, 1.56) 1.21 (1.08, 1.37) Negative Emotionality 0.73 (0.67, 0.80) 0.85 (0.76, 0.96) Control 1.83 (1.67, 2.01) 1.22 (1.07, 1.38) Externalizing 0.54 (0.50, 0.60) 0.82 (0.72, 0.93) Sex 1.84 (1.52, 2.22) 1.53 (1.21, 1.93)

Educational mobility in the MTFS Offspring Gender StabilityChange Non-CollegeCollege Upward Mobility Downward Mobility Women (N=1289) 39.3%28.7%22.1%10.0% Men (N=1117) 46.5%20.5%15.1%17.9%

Intergenerational mobility associated with: cognitive ability, externalizing & control

The educational attainment phenotype: Aggregates strongly in families for environmental as well as genetic reasons With intergenerational mobility associated with gender, cohort and hard and soft skills Environmental transmission within families may not be due skill building

College educated parents are more likely to have college educated offspring, in both adoptive and biological families

But adoptive parents effect doesn’t appear to be attributable to skill building

... but adoptive family income really helps

Conclusions Unlike many behavioral genetic traits, there may be strong shared environmental influences on social achievements Intergenerational mobility is driven by hard and soft skill differentials Yet the family environmental influences may more reflect opportunities created by socioeconomic advantage than skill building

Thank You!