Households' Risks from a Danish Financial Stability Perspective Tue Mathiasen Danmarks Nationalbank.

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Presentation transcript:

Households' Risks from a Danish Financial Stability Perspective Tue Mathiasen Danmarks Nationalbank

DANMARKS NATIONALBANK2 Agenda  Aspects of the latest period of growth and recession  Households’ debt and wealth  financial  non-financial  Households’ debt service issues  at the macro level  at the micro level  Way forward

DANMARKS NATIONALBANK3 Growth and recession - net borrowing / net lending

DANMARKS NATIONALBANK4 Growth and recession - Changes in household balances

DANMARKS NATIONALBANK5 Households’ debt and wealth - Real economy spill-over

DANMARKS NATIONALBANK6 Households’ debt and wealth - Real economy spill-over

DANMARKS NATIONALBANK7 Households’ debt and wealth - Financial wealth

DANMARKS NATIONALBANK8 Households’ debt and wealth - Total wealth

DANMARKS NATIONALBANK9 Households’ debt and wealth - Property estimations  Lack of official statistics  High quality data sources  Register of all Danish property (buildings and land)  Continuous valuation of all Danish property  for tax purposes  Property price statistics  By Statistics Denmark  Property price index  By Association of Danish Mortgage Banks  Quarterly data on average square metre prices from open market transactions

DANMARKS NATIONALBANK10 Households’ debt and wealth - Property estimations (cont.)  Estimations within Danish NCB  Method  Combination of stock (register data) by owner sector and transaction prices (mortgage bank info.)  Stratification by groups of municipalities with similar degrees of urbanisation  Possibility of selection bias (actual traded property)  Not a full usage of all available high quality data sources

DANMARKS NATIONALBANK11 Households’ debt and wealth - Across Nordic countries

DANMARKS NATIONALBANK12 Households’ debt and wealth - Gross debt

DANMARKS NATIONALBANK13 Households’ debt service issues - macro level

DANMARKS NATIONALBANK14 Households’ debt service issues - composition of mortgage-credit

DANMARKS NATIONALBANK15 Households’ debt service issues - composition by mortgaging ratio

DANMARKS NATIONALBANK16 Households’ debt service issues - composition by income

DANMARKS NATIONALBANK17 Households’ debt service issues -exposure to interest rate changes

DANMARKS NATIONALBANK18 Way forward  In general, a growing demand for official statistics supporting financial stability analysis  Examples of specific issues  Real property  Micro-macro link