Have I been doing Behavioural OR for the Last 20 Years? Stewart Robinson Professor of Management Science Associate Dean Research School of Business and.

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Presentation transcript:

Have I been doing Behavioural OR for the Last 20 Years? Stewart Robinson Professor of Management Science Associate Dean Research School of Business and Economics

Outline To develop a better understanding of behavioural OR.  My research  Examples of modelling behaviour  Examples of understanding behaviour with models  Some key elements of BOR

My Research Simulation practice Simulation conceptual modelling Simulation output analysis Facilitated modelling with simulation Comparison of DES and SD Agent-based simulation Verification and validation of simulation models The quality of operational research interventions Modelling human decision- making and interaction

A Lorry Loading Bay Problem Modelling Behaviour Part I: 1995

A Lorry Loading Bay Problem: Decision tree derived from example cases using a simulation model Modelling Behaviour Part I: 1995

Investigation of the operations system Understanding the process and the decision- making required Elicit knowledge Decisions taken under scenarios (data sets held for each decision-maker) Trains Represent the decision-making strategy of each decision-maker Provide input to the VIS in place of the decision-makers Generate decision- making scenarios Predict performance of decision-making strategies Seek improvements VIS model AI model Data sets Stage 1 Stage 5 Stage 4 Stage 3 Stage 2 Modelling Behaviour Part II: Knowledge Based Improvement

Axelrod Culture Model: Diffusion of Ideas _CDD2_CDD3_CDD4_CDD5_EBA6_CDD7_CDD8_CDD9_CDD10_CDD 211_CDD12_CDD13_CDD14_CDD15_EBA16_CDD17_CDD18_CDD19_FEE20_CDD 321_CDD22_CDD23_CDD24_EBA25_EBA26_CDD27_CDD28_CDD29_FEE30_CDD 431_CDD32_CDD33_CDD34_CDD35_EBA36_AFC37_AFC38_CDD39_FEE40_FEE 5 41_CDD42_CDD43_CDD44_CDD45_CDD46_CDD47_AFC48_AFC49_FEE50_FEE 651_CDD52_CDD53_CDD54_CDD55_CDD56_CDD57_AFC58_AFC59_FEE60_CDD 761_CDD62_CDD63_CDD64_CDD65_CDD66_CDD67_CDD68_AFC69_CDD70_CDD 871_CDD72_CDD73_CDD74_CDD75_CDD76_CDD77_CDD78_CDD79_CDD80_CDD 981_CDD82_CDD83_CDD84_CDD85_CDD86_CDD87_CDD88_CDD89_CDD90_CDD 1091_CDD92_CDD93_CDD94_CDD95_CDD96_CDD97_CDD98_CDD99_CDD100_CDD Modelling Behaviour Part III: Agent Based Modelling

Agent Based Simulation of Supply Chains Material Funds Information Supplier Retailer Market demand w(q) w q Min{q,D} p D Modelling Behaviour Part III: Agent Based Modelling

Efficiency scores Suppliers Retailers F1F2F1F2 RET 1 RET 2 RET 3 RET 4 RET OPT SUP (0.001)0.527 (0.006)0.397 (0.003)0.375 (0.003)0.320 (0.001) SUP (0.002)0.778 (0.008)0.636 (0.005)0.461 (0.005)0.644 (0.005) SUP (0.005)0.968 (0.012)0.851 (0.009)0.585 (0.008)0.849 (0.008) SUP OPT (0.003)0.878 (0.010)0.734 (0.007)0.507 (0.006)0.741 (0.006) Modelling Behaviour Part III: Agent Based Modelling

Behaviour with Models Part I: Model Building

Behaviour with Models Part II: Model Using

Behaviour with Models Part III: Managers, Decision-Making and Models

Have I been doing Behavioural OR for the Last 20 Years? Eliciting and modelling human behaviour Agent-based modelling Understanding model building Understanding model use Understanding how decisions are made based on models Modelling Behaviour Behaviour with Models