From Logs to Mining: Political settlements and capabilities in Solomon Islands Doug Porter Session on Land, Resources and State Formation Thursday 19 June

No strong pacting, between economic and political elites – major cleavages, weak, and ephemeral deals Co-production arrangements- selectively guarantee functionality, but don’t lead to more commitment from locals Consequently: Weak grasp Weak reach Not oriented to investing capabilities in Regulating market transactions Secure urban rights/tenure, etc Equitable wealth redistribution …… Durable, but no-one believes public authority is capable, so its crisis prone

Logging and outlook 70% exports, most revenue, most cash jobs Single most reliable predictor of village conflicts: social order, ‘social disintegration’ (public authority) Projected 8%/year decline “log supply constraints”. Surge in interest in mining: Choisuel, Guadalcanal, Vella Levalla, New Georgia Outlook

Logging/Mining: key features of similarity and difference The nature of the industry: Logging: numerous, dispersed, small area, short duration Mining: few, concentrated, large footprint, capital intensive, long duration More potential sites of contest, higher stakes, over longer period, by more politically savvy operators

Nature of public authority in relation to mining Competition intensifies: multiple local sites, island, province, national State more involved in ‘community’ – as owner of mineral assets Investor more involved in ‘state’ – in security, service, dispute regulation Centripetal: concentrates political contest around central ‘grasping’ Centrifugal: fragmentation of claimants for provisioning New ‘forms’ of organisation/identity: kastom, state, hybrid That are both fragmented & coalescing, and violent & generative

Around what functions of public authority are contests likely to occur? OR Where are both ‘grasping’ and ‘reaching’ capabilities most likely to be needed? 1.Landowner identification and representation in deal making (us/them; you/me) 2.Capturing wealth generated, dealing with volatility, intergenerational equity (now/later) 3.Wealth distribution: ‘direct’ vs. ’indirect’; intergovernmental fiscal sharing (‘derivation’ vs. ‘equalization’)

Under what conditions might these capabilities be created? “A fragmented, layered political settlement, durable, but crisis prone”. Massive coproduction of capability, through external-national ‘partnerships’. …. One condition would be Expose the fiction of ‘capacity’ building in situ (mining ministry, finance/economic governance, inter-govt relations) – Cross country alliances (PNG/Bville, Timor, West Africa – CSO, g7+, etc) – Supra-national regulatory capacity? (tax/transfer pricing, corporate performance, courts) Metropolitan neighbors: Getting from “liability” to “obligation”