1 February 2009 Analysis of capacity on double-track railway lines Olov Lindfeldt February 2008

2 February 2009 Disposition Introduction – freight capacity question TVEM (model) Infrastructure modeling Application - Three-pattern case Conclusions

3 February 2009 Freight capacity question What is the capacity for freight traffic on existing lines if high speed lines are constructed? It depends on the timetable! Ways to find the timetable for 2050: -Assume one -Make more general assumptions an generate a large number of timetables Develop an algorithm that generates timetables and evaluate freight capacity as a distribution… Disregard disturbances (delays)

4 February 2009 Freight capacity question What is the capacity for freight traffic on existing lines if high speed lines are constructed? It depends on the timetable! Ways to find the timetable for 2050: -Assume one -Make more general assumptions an generate a large number of timetables Develop an algorithm that generates timetables and evaluate freight capacity as a distribution… Disregard disturbances (delays)

5 February 2009 Freight capacity question What is the capacity for freight traffic on existing lines if high speed lines are constructed? It depends on the timetable! Ways to find the timetable for 2050: -Assume one -Make more general assumptions and generate a large number of timetables Develop an algorithm that generates timetables and evaluate freight capacity as a distribution… Disregard disturbances (delays)

6 February 2009 Freight capacity question What is the capacity for freight traffic on existing lines if high speed lines are constructed? It depends on the timetable! Ways to find the timetable for 2050: -Assume one -Make more general assumptions and generate a large number of timetables Develop an algorithm that generates timetables and evaluate freight capacity as a distribution… Disregard disturbances (delays)

7 February 2009 Research view Aim How do the infrastructure and the timetable affect capacity? Method Combinatorial analysis of infrastructure designs and timetable structures.  TVEM: Timetable Variant Evaluation Model

8 February 2009 TVEM: Assumptions Passenger traffic operated with a periodic timetable Train patterns All patterns are scheduled according to a priority order. A train with higher priority is never given scheduled delay for a train with lower priority.

9 February 2009 TVEM: Structure

10 February 2009 TVEM: Variables Run times between overtaking stations (infrastructure + vehicle) Deceleration and acceleration supplements (for overtaking situations) Regular stops Track dispositions at stations Frequency of service Scheduling order

11 February 2009 TVEM: Calculation scheme Periodic timetable  train patterns Scheduling order for train patterns Time step: 1 minute Last pattern: as many freight trains as possible

12 February 2009 Infrastructure modelling (1/2) Real distribution for inter- station distance. Fitted Weibull distribution (M-L). Mean: 22,7 km Std: 109 km 2.

13 February 2009 Effect of additional overtaking stations? Halve the greatest distance repeatedly.  relationship between parameters Infrastructure modelling (2/2)

14 February 2009 Application: Three-pattern case High-speed, regional and freight trains Mean number of trains (capacity): Two speed combinations - 160/115 km/h (dotted) - 210/160 km/h (solid) Two infrastructure layouts. Inter-station distance: - mean 22 km (lower) - mean 17 km (upper)

15 February 2009 Conclusions Combinatorial / deterministic approach  TVEM Infrastructure treated as a variable. Modeled stochastically (replications) Regular passenger timetable  train pattern  combinatorial timetable analysis Evaluation: mean capacity, variance caused by: -Infrastructure -Timetable

16 February 2009 Thank You for the attention! Number of freight trains/h