Journalism 614: Relating Media & Opinion

Presentation Overview  Presentations for Weeks 14 and 15: –Four 15-minute presentations each day –Strict time limit  Attendance: –Attendance in required (penalty is 5 points off )  Technology: –Copy of presentation due Sunday 4/24 by 6pm

Basic Presentation Outline  I. Introduction  II. Theoretical Framework  III. Methods  IV. Results  V. Discussion

I. Introduction  Lead-in  Purpose Statement  Why is this study important?  Total time: 2 minutes

II. Theoretical Framework  Introduce concepts (conceptual definitions)  Formulate argument about expected relationships –Theory –Past research –Logic  State prediction/expectation  Total time: 4 minutes

III. Methods  Omit most methodological details  Focus on wording of opinion items –Operational definitions  Method of content analysis –Discuss scope of content analysis and coding system  Total time: 3 minutes

IV. Results  Tables and charts  Statements about support for predictions  Total time: 3 minutes

V. Discussion  What do the results mean for theory?  What do the results mean for public opinion?  What do the results say about media effects?  What do the results say about democracy?  Why should we care?  Total time: 3 minutes

“The Bright Sun and the Bleak Moon”: Untangling News Effects on Opinion about Clinton’s Competency and Integrity Dhavan V. Shah Maier-Bascom Professor

A Puzzle of Public Opinion Divergent trends in Clinton’s job approval and honesty evaluations after Lewinsky Scandal  Early 1993 –72% approve of his job performance –80% think he is honest and trustworthy  Early 1996 –50% approve of his job performance –45% think he is honest and trustworthy  Early 1999 –69% approve of his job performance –21% think he is honest and trustworthy

Press Influence on Mass Opinion  Mass opinion is influenced by press coverage –Elite Cues - Highlighting policy performance –News Frames - Emphasis on certain aspects of an issue  Citizens rely on cues and frames –Form attitudes “on the fly” –Cues and frames activate aspects of memory  A range of content shapes public perceptions –Discrete influences on presidential evaluation

Dimensions of Presidential Evaluation  Evaluate politicians along two dimensions –Competency - Leadership and Intellect –Integrity - Honesty and Morality  Range of topic areas may contain relevant cues –Economic coverage - favorable or unfavorable –Character coverage - moral or immoral –General coverage - negative or positive –Scandal coverage…

Framing Scandal Coverage  Three dominant frames –Conservative Attack Critiques of Clinton and Actions Against Him Starr and House Republicans –Liberal Response Suspicion about Conservatives’ Motives and Tactic Democrats and Clinton Supporters –Clinton Behavior Disclosure of Clinton’s Conduct and Evasions Wide Range of Sponsors

Modified Models of Media Effects  Liberal responses to conservative attacks –A cycle of argument and evidence –Support view of partisan motives  Recoiling, cynical reaction to strategic framing –The combination of conservative attack and liberal response work together to support his job approval –Character coverage will drive honest evaluations

Predicted Effects  Clinton Job Approval and Honesty Evaluations = f [(pro-economic + pro-policy + pro-character + conservative attack + liberal response) - (con- economic + con-policy + con-character + Clinton behavior)]

Data  Computer-aided content analysis of Presidency –Randomly sampled over 26K stories from NEXIS –Drawn from 32 leading broadcast and print outlets –Filtered then coded using computer decision rules –Scored paragraphs for all validated cues and frames  Two different public opinion time series –Surveys from Roper Poll database –Ask if approve of “job handling” – 913 polls –Ask if “honest and trustworthy” – 35 polls

Explaining Opinion Change  Assumes news has some persuasive power –Max value on published date  Four categories influence divergent trends –Econ, Policy, Character, and Scandal –Same content predicts competency and integrity –Differential effects of cues and frames

Discussion  Sustained by conservative attacks and liberal responses –Consistent with some “spiral of cynicism” arguments –Cycle of argument and evidence, one reframing the other  Economic cues matter for job handling but not honesty – public weigh the economy heavily in their sustained support  Character coverage matters selectively: compartmental –“good” character for job approval –“bad” character for honesty ratings  A media-based explanation of divergent trends  Framing and cueing explain media effects on opinion