THE FORECLOSURE CRISIS BAY AREA CASE STUDY

Research Focus  Focus: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP)  Research question: Is NSP funding the cities most in need? Analysis of foreclosure rates Effects on low income and minority populations  Case study: San Francisco-Bay Area  Data sources: 2000 U.S. Census, American Communities Survey, 2010 RealtyTrac, and 2011 HUD data 2

Case Study: Bay Area  One of the areas hardest hit by the foreclosure crisis  Nine Bay Area counties total  Four counties received NSP funds: Alameda, Contra Costa, Santa Clara, and Solano  Five counties were not funded: Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, and Sonoma 3 Source: 2010 U.S. Census Data

Bad News Nationwide 4  2.9 million U.S. home foreclosures in 2010  Nationwide 2% rise in foreclosures  72% increase in foreclosures in large U.S. cities  Predictions of a 20% increase in foreclosures for 2011 Sources: “Foreclosures decline in California in 2010,” Alexander Lazo, The Los Angeles Times, January 13, 2011, “Foreclosure filings could swell 20% this year,” Dan Levy and Prashant Gopal, The Los Angeles Times, January 14, 2011 and “Foreclosures rose in 72% of U.S. cities in 2010,” Dan Levy, The Los Angeles Times, January 28, 2011

Better News for CA? 5  Over 500,000 California homes were in foreclosure in 2010  14% drop in foreclosures in California  19 out of 20 cities with the highest foreclosure rate were in California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona Source: Alexander Lazo, “Foreclosures decline in California in 2010,” The Los Angeles Times, January 13, 2011 and “Foreclosures rose in 72% of U.S. cities in 2010,” Dan Levy, The Los Angeles Times, January 28, 2011

Note: State of California funding excluded. Source: 2010 U.S. Census and 2011 U.S Dept. of Housing and Urban Development Data 6 NPS invested $7 billion of federal funds to mitigate “the impact of foreclosures through the purchase and rehabilitation of foreclosed, vacant properties in order to create more affordable housing and renew neighborhoods devastated by the economic crisis.”

7 Source: 2011 U.S. Dept. of Housing and Urban Development

NSP Summary 8  Created by the Housing and Economic Revitalization Act of 2009 (HERA)  Three rounds of NSP funding; two rounds of funds distributed by a formula and one round was a competitive application process  States, counties, cities, and nonprofits use NSP funds to purchase and/or rehabilitate foreclosed, blighted, or vacant properties  Households assisted must be 120% of area median income (AMI) and 25% of the grant must serve households below 50% AMI

Bay Area Demographics 9  American Community Survey Data:  Total Population  Minority Population  Families Below Poverty Level  Median Household Income  Median House Value  Median Gross Rent  Foreclosures from June RealtyTrac Data

10 Source: American Community Survey and 2011 U.S. Dept. of Housing and Urban Development Data

11 Source: American Community Survey Data and 2011 U.S. Dept. of Housing and Urban Development Data

Bay Area Housing Data The Bay Area is expensive:  Bay Area residents earn 25% more than other Californians  Home values in the Bay Area are nearly 30% higher than other places in California 12 Source: American Community Survey Data

13 Source: American Community Survey Data and 2011 U.S. Dept. of Housing and Urban Development Data

Bay Area Foreclosures  21,000 estimated foreclosures in the Bay Area in 2010  Over 173,000 foreclosures in other CA counties 14 Source: 2011 U.S. Dept. of Housing and Urban Development Data

15 Source: American Community Survey, June RealtyTrac, and 2011 U.S. Dept. of Housing and Urban Development Data

16 Source: American Community Survey, June RealtyTrac, and 2011 U.S. Dept. of Housing and Urban Development Data

Take Aways 17  The Bay Area is an expensive area with high housing costs  NSP funded counties in the Bay Area with high foreclosure rates  Funding is in dense, diverse areas  Funding is not in affluent or poverty areas  Foreclosures disproportionately affected minorities

Next Steps  Research income data for 120% of AMI and 50% AMI which coincides with NSP requirements  Review data on delinquent mortgages, house price change, and unemployment  Further analysis of each county in the Bay Area  Breakdown racial data by specific groups  Compare Bay Area and California data to U.S. data 18

Summary of GIS Skills  Geographic Information System (GIS) Skills Utilized: 1. Inset Map 2. Point Graduated Symbol 3. Aggregating Attribute Data 4. Attribute Sub-sets Selections 5. Boundary Sub-sets Selections 6. Geoprocessing Layers 19

Detailed List of GIS Skills 20 MapGIS SkillsNotes San Francisco-Bay Area CountiesInset Map California and Bay Area counties Boundary Sub-sets Selection Bay Area counties selected as layer Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP) FundingAggregating Attribute Fields NSP funding combines county, city and nonprofit funding for each county. State of California funding excluded from analysis. Point Graduated Symbol Proportional dots for NSP funding amount Boundary Sub-sets Selection Bay Area counties selected as layer Minorities and Total Population in Bay Area CountiesAggregating Attribute Fields Racial minorities combines race categories: Black or African American Alone, American Indian and Alaska Native Alone, Asian Alone, Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander Alone, Some Other Race Alone, and Two or More races. Geoprocessing Layers Dot density layer for Racial Minorities and graduated color layer for Total Population Boundary Sub-sets Selection Bay Area counties Attribute Sub-sets Selection NSP funding by counties Poverty and Median Income in Bay Area CountiesGeoprocessing Layers Dot density for Families Below Poverty Level layer and graduated color layer for Median Household Income Boundary Sub-sets Selection Bay Area counties Attribute Sub-sets Selection NSP funding by counties Median House Value and Rent in Bay Area CountiesGeoprocessing Layers Graduated color layer for Median House Value and Median Gross Rent Boundary Sub-sets Selection Bay Area counties Attribute Sub-sets Selection NSP funding by counties Foreclosures and Population in Bay Area CountiesGeoprocessing Layers Dot density layer for Foreclosures and graduated color layer for Total Population Boundary Sub-sets Selection Bay Area counties Attribute Sub-sets Selection NSP funding by counties Foreclosures and Minorities in Bay Area CountiesAggregating Attribute Fields Racial minorities combined race categories: Black or African American Alone, American Indian and Alaska Native Alone, Asian Alone, Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander Alone, Some Other Race Alone, and Two or More races. Geoprocessing Layers Dot density layer for Foreclosures and graduated color layer for Minorities Boundary Sub-sets Selection Bay Area counties Attribute Sub-sets Selection NSP funding by counties Foreclosures and Median Income in Bay Area CountiesGeoprocessing Layers Dot density layer for Foreclosures and graduated color layer for Median Income Boundary Sub-sets Selection Bay Area counties Attribute Sub-sets Selection NSP funding by counties Foreclosures and Poverty in Bay Area CountiesGeoprocessing Layers Dot density layer for Foreclosures and graduated color layer for Families Below Poverty Level Boundary Sub-sets Selection Bay Area counties Attribute Sub-sets Selection NSP funding by counties

Photo Credits  Slide #1 – The Los Angeles Times, December 18, 2007, Location: Palmdale, CA  Slide #1 - David Butow, The Los Angeles Times, January 6, 2011, Location: Stockton, CA 21