Duke Energy Corp. (DUK) Rating: Buy Patrick Matchell Fall 2005
Company Overview Company is comprised of 6 divisions –Franchise Electric (34%) –Natural Gas Transmission (32%) –Duke Energy North America (DNEA) (13%) –Field Services (50 / 50 JV) (12%) –International Energy (6%) –Crescent Resources (3%) % = percent of total assets
Business Environment Still recovering from Enron collapse and deregulation. Consolidation to increase due to repeal of Public Utility Holding Company Act of Industry wide repair of highly leveraged balance sheets.
Current Events June June Announced merger with Cinergy Announced merger with Cinergy July July Energy Bill passed allowing over $14 billion in tax credits July July Duke power customers set record for use of electricity
Investment Highlights Growth rate for next quarter is at 56.5% –Industry average at 6.8% Increased dividend by 13% in June –Yield currently over 4% Over $1 billion in cash reserves Selling assets with high risk and negative returns (DENA Segment) Continuing to acquire
More Investment Highlights Upward revision of earnings –Revised EPS of $1.65 from $1.60 Increasing liquidity by repaying LTD Leader in low carbon technologies 5 Star S&P Rating
Key Price Drivers Q3 Earnings results Price of DENA asset sales Completion of Cinergy merger Further strategic acquisitions IPO of master limited partnership Impact from Hurricanes
Technical Analysis
Entry / Exit Entry price: between $27.50 – Entry time: next days; before earnings Target Price (12 Month): $35 - $36 (estimated 2006 EPS $1.75 x 20 P/E Multiple) Holding Period Return: Approximately 29.5% (including dividends) (including dividends)