Capital Market Presentation September 2011: Limits to growth Hans-Jörg Naumer, Dennis Nacken, Stefan Scheurer Not for circulation to private investors

2 Limits to growth OECD-Leading Indicators: Almost every economic indicator is weakening. Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis

3 CDS premia are close to their peak levels. iTraxx Senior Financials & iTraxx Europe Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis

4 Emerging Markets: Economic strength Share of global economic growth and market capitalisation. (MSCI World AC, in US-Dollar). Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis

5 Economic leading indicators: Affected by capital market sentiment. ifo-busines climate index and purchasing manager indices of the US and China. Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis

6 Most regional „surprise“ indices are at their historical turning points. “Surprise”-Indicators are calculated as the deviation between actual economic data and the consensus estimates. Indicators concerning surprise events in global macro data (“Surprise Indicators”) Source: Datastream; RCM

7 P/E ratios 12 months forward. Valuations continue to suggest equity investments Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis

8 Investment theme: Dividends The Standard & Poor’s 500 also shows that dividends made up most of the losses caused by price fluctuations. Capital gains/losses Dividend income Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis

9 Investment theme: High Yields Solid liquidity reserves and the ongoing trend in the coming year of conservative corporate financial policy should continue to provide a positive environment for corporate bonds. Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis

10 Decisive Insights: It is advisable to retain a neutral weighting between equities and bonds  In terms of price/earnings ratios, the equity markets are already anticipating an economic decline and a drop in earnings. Equities now look distinctly cheap relative to government bonds, although there are regional variations here, too.  Concerns about the economy and the (EU) debt crisis dominate the picture and are apparently also beginning to have an effect on real economic sentiment indicators. This widespread pessimism provides room for positive surprises.  The medium- to longer-term outlook for equities is positive. However, given the current uncertainties, not least about progress in resolving the debt crisis, it is advisable to retain a neutral weighting between equities and bonds.

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