STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04# 1 STARMAP YEAR 3 N. Scott Urquhart STARMAP Director Department of Statistics Colorado State University Fort Collins, CO

STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04# 2 STARMAP FUNDING Space-Time Aquatic Resources Modeling and Analysis Program The work reported here today was developed under the STAR Research Assistance Agreement CR awarded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to Colorado State University. This presentation has not been formally reviewed by EPA. The views expressed here are solely those of presenters and STARMAP, the Program they represent. EPA does not endorse any products or commercial services mentioned in these presentation. This research is funded by U.S.EPA – Science To Achieve Results (STAR) Program Cooperative Agreement # CR

STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04# 3 TODAY’S COMMENTS ABOUT STARMAP  Background Comments  Research  Outputs Publications/presentations Training – future generations of environmental statisticians  Extension/Outreach/Cooperation Meetings Learning Materials Recruiting  Plans for the year ahead Research Meetings

STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04# 4 PROGRESS SINCE LAST YEAR: STARMAP RESEARCH - A FOCUS  EPA released the report, Response of Surface Water Chemistry to the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (EPA/620/R-02/004) Was submitted to Congress in January, 2003  Statistical techniques available for it were severely limited in several dimensions  Good illustration of tools we need to develop Used as presentation illustration STARMAP investigators are using The context for model assumptions Data on which this report was based

STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04# 5 PROGRESS SINCE LAST YEAR: STARMAP RESEARCH – Project 1  Combining/analyzing environmental data Bayesian methods Extension of contingency table methods » Devin Johnson » Finished PhD, now at University of Alaska; continuing Selection of spatial models – Andrew Merton Megan Dailey is starting work on this project Book on Computational Statistics Spatial statistics Designing to estimate semivariograms – Kerry Ritter & Molly Leecaster How much spatial correlation in aquatic responses? - nsu Alix Gitelman (OSU) & graph methods  Originally under Project 2; work is closer to Project 1  Steve Jensen – short talk Jennifer Hoeting (PI) will comment further

STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04# 6 PROGRESS SINCE LAST YEAR: STARMAP RESEARCH – Project 2  Local Estimation/Survey Methods Jointly funded by STARMAP and DAMARS Methods to improve survey summaries using auxiliary information From design-based to model-based Major collaboration with Jean Opsomer, Iowa State U  Ji-Yeon Kim and Gerda Claeskens Giovanna Ranalli = post doc, not here right now Two from cooperating fellows from Taiwan  Nan-Jung Hsu and Hsin-Cheng Huang Progress on procedures for smoothing data from river networks Jay Breidt will expand on this during his talk  Mark Delorey and Bill Coar

STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04# 7 PROGRESS SINCE LAST YEAR: STARMAP RESEARCH – Project 3 Indicator Development GIS work & support is funded here SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS in GRTS sampling  Will be reported at Monitoring Science and Technology conference week after next (Denver) Good cooperation with Region 8 and Western Ecology Division Erin Poston, who will give a talk tomorrow, is funded here. Dave Theobald (PI) will comment further  Promising GIS tools are under development and testing

STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04# 8 PROGRESS SINCE LAST YEAR: STARMAP RESEARCH – Project 4 Extension/Outreach Urquhart (PI) I’ll return to this as next to the last major topic  Only opportunity to talk about outreach here

STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04# 9 TRAINING - RESULTS  Governing RAF states “… cadre of graduates would be developed who would have the expertise and experience in survey design and analysis needed to fill a gap in the expertise required to successfully monitor the condition of the Nation’s aquatic resources.”  Students & early career professionals Students One PhD + 4 Masters completed 5 PhD, 4 stat + 1 landscape ecology 2 MS; Early-career professionals - 8

STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04# 10 PROGRESS SINCE LAST YEAR: TRAINING: CONTINUED  Field experience Several + ongoing All toured past EMAP sites near OSU last year All had a tour of WED/EMAP last year  Visits to other EPA facilities Theobald & Poston interacted with personnel at Region 8 recently All CSU students attended a meeting a Region 8 in May of this year  Gitelman will comment about her interactions with Ken Reckhow later today.

STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04# 11 OUTPUTS  Relevant statistical research in the form of Publications Worked examples in the “Case studies” part of the learning materials  The Generalized Random Tessellation Stratified sampling process Implemented correctly in ARCView  Prediction of probability of perennialness of stream traces Add to sampling procedure by end of Program

STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04# 12 OUTPUTS in YEAR 3  PUBLICATIONS 9 professional publications – in print or accepted Including a book 12 in various stages of submission and review 26 manuscripts in various stages of development  Presentations 37 completed 5 more by end of year 3 To a variety of audiences, domestic and international

STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04# 13 OUTPUTS in YEAR 3 continued  STUDENT PROGRESS PhDs Four nearing completion  Three Stat  One geoscience Masters Two completed this year  CSU, OSU  Two more in progress

STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04# 14 MEETINGS  Graybill Conference – success Proceedings will be published as an issue of Environmental and Ecological Statistics Friendly outlet for young environmental statisticians  Topic contributed paper session at 2004 Joint Statistics Meetings – with the Chicago Center Success  Monitoring Science and Technology Symposium Two and a half days of sessions on statistical aspects of monitoring Half day tutorial on GRTS sampling

STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04# 15 MEETINGS - WHY?  TRAINING Provide opportunities for students to gain relevant professional experience  DEVELOPMENT OF YOUNG ENVIRONMENTAL STATISTICIANS Early career environmental statisticians Gain stature in our discipline  OUTREACH/EXTENSION to Statistical community – Graybill Conference Users of statistics – Monitoring Science & Technology

STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04# 16 RECRUITING  Post-doctoral fellows Modest success – will continue efforts Giovanna Ranalli was here for four months, and will return in October  Director will continue to be active in recruiting Students for the CSU statistics graduate program In high school advanced placement statistics We need undergraduate majors in relevant areas to recruit for future graduate students Urquhart visited 8 AP classes in four high schools last year  More visits are being arranged for next year Developed some dynamic graphics for power and r 2 Example

STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04# 17 LEARNING MATERIALS  Jointly funded by STARMAP & DAMARS  Browser based (web access NOT needed) To be delivered via CD ROM Substantial opportunities for individualization Perspective  Senior administrator to  Implementer to  Researcher Landscape setting  Evaluation & feedback - OSU test – was positive Evaluators – state, tribal & EPA regional Article in Tribal News

STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04# 18 CONTENT OF LEARNING MATERIALS PROGRESS  Why Monitor? Draft completed and tested  Where to Monitor? (= GRTS-type sampling) Draft completed and tested  What to monitor = Indicators Nothing started on this yet  How to Monitor? (= Field Operations) EPA Field Operations Manuals Training videotaped in May for inclusion in this part We have PowerPoint presentations from training Student is working on this (MS)

STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04# 19 CONTENT OF LEARNING MATERIALS PROGRESS (continued)  …  How to summarize. Student has started on this  Case studies Several current efforts will be turned into these  Distribution of completed materials Preliminary discussions with the Council of State Governments have been very encouraging.

STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04# 20 DYNAMIC ILLUSTRATION OF POINT LOCATION  Strahler order 1, 2 & 3 represented by trace thickness  Relative probability by order First: 0.25 Second: 0.50 Third 1.00  Points appear in sampling order Slowly at first Then faster Loops back to first point

STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04# 21 PLANS FOR THE YEAR AHEAD  Project 1 - continue present work Expand designs for spatial modeling Explore data resulting from San Diego study  Project 2 – continue developments Emphasize small area (local) estimation Potentially valuable for 305(b) => 303(d) reporting  Project 3 - complete GRTS sampling in GIS Apply tools to develop indicators Regional species richness  Outreach – continue development of cooperation Case studies Continue implementation & testing At any suitable venue

STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04# 22 ACCUMULATING AQUATIC SPATIAL DATA  How much spatial correlation really is present in aquatic responses, after accounting for habitat features? Urquhart has been seeking data sets to look at this: Streams in Virginia Ohio River – about 400 points Detroit River – 100 or so over short distance Estuaries – one in northeast Near coastal – San Diego Project  Discussed under Kerry Ritter’s presentation

STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04# 23 FUTURE MEETINGS  Computational Environmetrics, October 21-23, 2004, in Chicago, Illinois Statistics and Environment Section of the American Statistical Association (ASA) and The Center for Integrating the Statistical and the Environmental Science (CISES) at the Department of Statistics, University of Chicago. Three short courses – Jennifer Hoeting will be involved in two Jay Breidt & Devin Johnson are invited speakers  DAMARS/STARMAP in 2005 At Oregon State University Tentative dates: September 9 & 10, 2005 Advice – Content & Audience

STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04# 24 FUTURE MEETING POSSIBILITIES  Special session for next year’s North American Benthological Society Meeting  Symposium on the interface between GIS and statistics Especially relevant as ArcGIS now has spatial statistics components As distinct from its geostatistics modules Code is open and alterable Dave Theobald can say more about this possibility