Technology Forecasting Technology Winners
Technology Forecasting The question that faces the long-range planner is not what we should do tomorrow, it is: What do we have to do today to be ready for an uncertain tomorrow.
Technology Forecasting: Why Do It ? Surveillance of Total Environment Estimate Time Scale for Important Events Threats and Opportunities Continued Monitoring of Trends Reorientation of Company Policy Improve Operational Decision Making
Technology Forecasting Definition Foreseeable Specific Scientific Refinement Promises to Serve Some Function Quantitative Conclusions; Levels of Confidence; Given Time Frame Specific Level of Support Logical Analysis...Consistent Results
Technology Forecasting Business Environment Political, Technological, Industrial.. Needs Technology Forecasting Financial support New Product
Technological Forecasting Technique Classifications Exploratory (From past-present-future) Normative (From future) Paths of Technological Progress The “S” Curve (with an selected attribute) Human intellect Physical limit
Possible paths of Progress Physical limit Parameter of performance A B C Time
Effect of Emergent New Technology A B C Parameter of performance New Technology Time
Technological Forecasting Desired Information Likely Performance Levels with No New Stimuli Approach of Natural or Physical Limit Stimuli which May Change Support or Progress New Technologies/Crossover Points Performance Milestones
Technological Winners Radical Innovations Technological Potency or Importance Market Opportunity or Business Advantage
The R&D Effort Portfolio Technical Opportunity Selective Emphasis Heavy Emphasis Heavy Emphasis Limited Support Selective Emphasis Heavy Emphasis Limited Support Selective Emphasis Limited Support Market Opportunity
Technological Winners Determinants of Success Inventive Merit Technical Potency Embodiment Merit Operational Merit Market Opportunity Market Merit
Technological Winners Retrospective Examples Transistor in Commercial Electronics Inventive Merit - Size, Weight, reliability Embodiment Merit - Portable radio Operational Merit - Low shipping costs Market Merit - New growth market
Technological Winners “Prospective” Examples Computerized Automobile Engine Inventive Merit Embodiment Merit Operational Merit Market Merit
Technological Winners “Prospective” Examples Computerized Automobile Engine Inventive Merit - Reduced pollution Embodiment Merit - Stable performance Operational Merit - Expansion of operation Market Merit - Via substitution
Technological Winners Issues Radical Vs. Evolutionary Innovation Embodiment/Operational (e.g., VCR) Forecasting
Technology Forecasting Forecasting Techniques Trend Extrapolation Precursor Trends - Curve Matching Technological Substitution Delphi Scenarios Relevance Trees Technology Monitoring