National Fuel Infrastructure Plans

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Presentation transcript:

National Fuel Infrastructure Plans 2010 NGA Regional Market Trends Forum Moving the Marcellus: National Fuel Infrastructure Plans Jeffrey Schauger GENERAL MANAGER INTERSTATE MARKETING NATIONAL FUEL GAS SUPPLY CORPORATION

Safe Harbor for Forward Looking Statements This presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements regarding future prospects, plans, performance and capital structure, anticipated capital expenditures and completion of construction projects, as well as statements that are identified by the use of the words “anticipates,” “estimates,” “expects,” “forecasts,” “intends,” “plans,” “predicts,” “projects,” “believes,” “seeks,” “will,” “may,” and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results or outcomes to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. The Company’s expectations, beliefs and projections contained herein are expressed in good faith and are believed to have a reasonable basis, but there can be no assurance that such expectations, beliefs or projections will result or be achieved or accomplished. In addition to other factors, the following are important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from results referred to in the forward-looking statements: changes in economic conditions, including economic disruptions caused by terrorist activities, acts of war or major accidents, and downturns in economic activity including national or regional recessions; changes in demographic patterns and weather conditions, including the occurrence of severe weather such as hurricanes; changes in the availability and/or price of natural gas or oil and the effect of such changes on the accounting treatment of derivative financial instruments or the valuation of the Company’s natural gas and oil reserves; uncertainty of oil and gas reserve estimates; ability to successfully identify, drill for and produce economically viable natural gas and oil reserves, including shortages, delays or unavailability of equipment and services required in drilling operations; significant changes from expectations in the Company’s actual production levels for natural gas or oil; changes in the availability and/or price of derivative financial instruments; changes in the price differentials between various types of oil; inability to obtain new customers or retain existing ones; significant changes in competitive factors affecting the Company; changes in laws and regulations to which the Company is subject, including changes in tax, environmental, safety and employment laws and regulations; governmental/regulatory actions, initiatives and proceedings, including those involving acquisitions, financings, rate cases (which address, among other things, allowed rates of return, rate design and retained gas), affiliate relationships, industry structure, franchise renewal, and environmental/safety requirements; unanticipated impacts of restructuring initiatives in the natural gas and electric industries; significant changes from expectations in actual capital expenditures and operating expenses and unanticipated project delays or changes in project costs or plans; the nature and projected profitability of pending and potential projects and other investments, and the ability to obtain necessary governmental approvals and permits; occurrences affecting the Company’s ability to obtain funds from operations, from borrowings under our credit lines or other credit facilities or from issuances of other short-term notes or debt or equity securities to finance needed capital expenditures and other investments, including any downgrades in the Company’s credit ratings; ability to successfully identify and finance acquisitions or other investments and ability to operate and integrate existing and any subsequently acquired business or properties; impairments under the SEC’s full cost ceiling test for natural gas and oil reserves; changes in the market price of timber and the impact such changes might have on the types and quantity of timber harvested by the Company; significant changes in tax rates or policies or in rates of inflation or interest; significant changes in the Company’s relationship with its employees or contractors and the potential adverse effects if labor disputes, grievances or shortages were to occur; changes in accounting principles or the application of such principles to the Company; the cost and effects of legal and administrative claims against the Company or activist shareholder campaigns to effect changes at the Company; changes in actuarial assumptions and the return on assets with respect to the Company’s retirement plan and post-retirement benefit plans; increasing health care costs and the resulting effect on health insurance premiums and on the obligation to provide post-retirement benefits; or increasing costs of insurance, changes in coverage and the ability to obtain insurance. For a discussion of these risks and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from results referred to in the forward-looking statements, see “Risk Factors” in the Company’s Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2009 and and the Company’s Form 10-Q for the quarter ended December 31, 2009. The Company disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date hereof or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. Basically says any forward-looking statements I might make today are opinions and not guarantees

National Fuel Gas Company Principal Businesses E&P Seneca Resources Corporation National Fuel Gas Company Timber Highland Forest Resources, Inc. and NE Division of Seneca Resources Corp. Energy Mktg National Fuel Resources, Inc. Utility National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation P&S National Fuel Gas Supply Corporation & Empire Pipeline Midstream National Fuel Gas Midstream Corporation

PL&S: ~3,000 Miles of Pipeline, 60,000+ hp LDC: ~725,000 Customers NY and PA PL&S: ~3,000 Miles of Pipeline, 60,000+ hp Own/Operate 27 Fields; Co-Own/Operate 4 Fields Storage Capacity ~78 bcf

~1,000,000 Acres of Development Rights Owned by NE Division of Seneca Resources

Ellisburg Interconnects: Bristoria Interconnect: Niagara CANADA Lake Ontario Lake Erie Ellisburg NY PA OH Chippawa Corning A - 5 Line Independence Millennium Tuscarora Storage TCPL Interconnects: Niagara, Chippawa Leidy Interconnects: Transco, TETCO, DTI National Fuel Gas Company NFGSC System Storages NFGSC System Pipelines Empire State Pipeline Interconnects Empire Pipeline Leidy National Fuel’s Strategic Location Ellisburg Interconnects: TGP, DTI Empire Connector Bristoria Interconnect: TETCO – M2 Corning Interconnects: Empire, Millennium

Shows how our system overlays the Marcellus; good lead-in to the discussion of our projects. Illustrates why we’re doing what we’re doing… Just to answer the ONE question everyone has on their mind. Although our pipeline grid is decades old, we most certainly DID know all along bout the potential of the Marcellus and we’re just now reaping the benefits

Marcellus Shale –What We Know Recoverable portion > 95,000 sq mi Depth 5,000 ft + Thickness 50 ft – 250 ft Potentially the largest natural gas field in the U.S. with recoverable reserves estimated in the 100’s of TCFs BTU – Varies based on location

Marcellus Shale Overview The Key- Advances in directional drilling maximizes surface area for gas to escape formation Close to the Market Low breakeven costs Marcellus Shale play is vast – and it’s still early Estimates on reserves for both up to 25-30 TCF Fayetteville northern AK and adjoining states Hayesville Ark, TX, LA Barnett texas5,000 sq miles Fayetteville also 5,000 sq miles both generated a lot of infrastructure

Marcellus Shale Increasing Production Activity = 2010 estimate based on total YTD requests And I’m sure other pipelines have very similar data trends, as would permitting agencies

Trends & Observations… “Pipeline Geology” key driver in current drilling locations Significant gas supply being added to large long-haul pipes: - TGP, TETCO, TCO, DTI, NFG The Interstate Pipeline System Downstream of Storage (Ellisburg/Leidy and Oakford) is at Capacity Market will grow (subject to many factors), but won’t match increase in gas supply in market area Shift in flows due not only to Marcellus, but effects of REX, LNG, and other shale plays What large players are saying: “…We continue to ramp up our activities in the Marcellus…” “…accelerate sharply our development of the Marcellus.. “ “…able to utilize new drilling techniques that allows (us) to affordably reach gas supplies in the Marcellus…that previously had been too expensive to tap.’ Producers taking on firm capacity positions to ensure production flows: Range, EQT, Chesapeake, Statoil, Cabot, East Resources, Fortuna Majors and investors jumping into the Marcellus fray JV’s Pittsburgh area exploding - experienced labor at a premium Big Players: Range, Anadarko, Cabot, Chesapeake, East, Atlas, Seneca Resources Anadarko Anschutz Atlas Energy, Inc. CNX Cabot Oil & Gas Chesapeake Energy Chief Oil & Gas Dominion Resources EOG Equitable EXCO Resources, Inc. East Resources Linn Energy Range Resources Talisman

National Fuel Gas PL&S Infrastructure Expansion Plans Horsepower Expansions Lamont Line N/Holbrook West to East (“W2E”) Pipeline Phases I and II Storage Expansion Empire’s Tioga County Extension All of these very much driven by the changing gas supply picture – Marcellus Represents over $500 million in infrastructure investment Northern Access Expansion

PIPELINE & STORAGE EXPANSION INITIATIVES WEST TO EAST EXPANSION HORIZONTAL DRILLING ACTIVITY VERTICAL DRILLING ACTIVITY LAMONT COMPRESSOR STATION TIOGA COUNTY EXTENSION EAST BRANCH STORAGE GALBRAITH STORAGE New 1,150 HP Compressor Station in Elk County, PA. Additional bi-directional measurement also. Puts gas into TGP 300 line from producing area in counties: Capacity: 40,000 Dth/d Delivery Point of TGP at Lamont SA’s executed fpr 1st 40,000 construction under way Expandable w/ 2nd Unit to 80,000 Dth/d + - early 2011 Lamont Compressor Station Planned Capacity 40,000 Dth/d Planned Compression 1,150 HP Anticipated In-Service Date June 2010 Estimated CAPEX Investment ~$6 MM Construction under FERC Blanket Certificate WEST TO EAST PHASE 1 & PHASE 2 LINE “N” EXPANSION APPALACHIAN LATERAL 13 Howard Weil Energy Conference – March 23, 2010 13

EXPANSION INITIATIVES Preparing FERC Application for April Filing PIPELINE & STORAGE EXPANSION INITIATIVES WEST TO EAST EXPANSION HORIZONTAL DRILLING ACTIVITY VERTICAL DRILLING ACTIVITY LAMONT COMPRESSOR STATION TIOGA COUNTY EXTENSION EAST BRANCH STORAGE GALBRAITH STORAGE New 4,700 HP Compressor Station in Washington County, PA near I70 2 Miles of 20” Line N Replacement North of I-70 Capacity of 150,000 Dth/d Delivery Point of TETCO at Ryerson (Holbrook) Station (M2) Estimated Cost: $23 Million Involves some pipeline replacement to get away from Mining areas-approx 20 miles of 20” pipe Timeline: FERC NEPA Pre-filing October 20, 2009 Planned FERC 7(c): April 2010 Planned Construction: November 2010 Planned In-Service: November 2011 Precedent Agreements with Range Resources for 150,000 Dth/d for 11 Years Looking and 2nd phase Phase II Increase Capacity to 300,000 Dth/d Facilities: 7,000 HP Expansion of Proposed Buffalo Compressor Station Possible 6-mile Pipeline Replacement Suction Side of Station Estimated Cost: $20-31 Million Service Available: November 2012 or 2013 Open Season Closed on February 26, 2010 Line “N” Expansion Planned Capacity 150,000 Dth/d Planned Compression 4,700 HP Anticipated In-Service Date November 2011 Estimated CAPEX Investment $23 MM Preparing FERC Application for April Filing WEST TO EAST PHASE 1 & PHASE 2 LINE “N” EXPANSION APPALACHIAN LATERAL 14 Howard Weil Energy Conference – March 23, 2010 14

PIPELINE & STORAGE EXPANSION INITIATIVES WEST TO EAST EXPANSION HORIZONTAL DRILLING ACTIVITY VERTICAL DRILLING ACTIVITY LAMONT COMPRESSOR STATION TIOGA COUNTY EXTENSION EAST BRANCH STORAGE GALBRAITH STORAGE Facilities Phase I: 39 Miles of 24” 1,440 psig Pipeline 4,000 to 7,000 HP @ Station in Moshannon State Forest Interconnections at Leidy Facilities Phase II: 43 Miles of 24” 1,440 psig Pipeline 18,000 to 21,000 HP @ Station at Heath Station Minimum Combined Capacity of 425,000 Dth/d Delivery Points of Transco, TETCO, and DTI @ Leidy Estimated Combined Cost of $260 Million 2007 – Primary gas supply was expected to come from REX at Clarington, OH Early 2008 – Interest from local producers shifted focus to Appalachian gas supply July ‘08 - Development of Appalachian Lateral to complement W2E’s plan for facilities east of Overbeck September ’09 – Launched binding Open Season for Phases I and II with transportation to Leidy Provides Transportation Capacity to Leidy Production Access from Elk, Jefferson, Clearfield, Cameron, Clinton, Clarion, Forest, McKean, and Potter Counties Critical Infrastructure for SRC Legacy Acreage Development Project may be Constructed in 2 Phases as Production Ramps-up Utilized Existing Infrastructure and ROW’s to Minimize New Facilities Timeline: FERC NEPA Pre-filing March 2010 Planned FERC 7(c): September 2010 Planned Construction: March 2011 Planned In-Service Phase I: November 2011 Planned In-Service Phase II: November 2012 Precedent Agreements: Seneca Resources 100,000 Dth/d for 15 Years 2 Producers for 75,000 Dth/d for 15 Years (Credit Open) Ongoing Post-open Season Negotiations Annual Revenue of $51 Million at Full Subscription West to East – Phases I & II Planned Combined Capacity 425,000 Dth/d Anticipated In-Service (Phase I) November 2011 Anticipated In-Service (Phase II) November 2012 Estimated CAPEX Investment $260 MM Ongoing post-open season negotiations WEST TO EAST PHASE 1 & PHASE 2 LINE “N” EXPANSION APPALACHIAN LATERAL 15 Howard Weil Energy Conference – March 23, 2010 15

PIPELINE & STORAGE EXPANSION INITIATIVES WEST TO EAST EXPANSION HORIZONTAL DRILLING ACTIVITY VERTICAL DRILLING ACTIVITY LAMONT COMPRESSOR STATION TIOGA COUNTY EXTENSION EAST BRANCH STORAGE GALBRAITH STORAGE Total Expansion: 7,900,000 Dth of 90-day Service Delivered via West to East Phase I & II to Leidy Estimated Cost: $64 Million East Branch & Galbraith Storage Expansion Planned Capacity 7.9 Bcf Planned Compression 11,245 HP Anticipated In-Service Date April 2013 Estimated CAPEX Investment $64 MM 35 New Wells & 12.4 Miles of Pipe WEST TO EAST PHASE 1 & PHASE 2 LINE “N” EXPANSION APPALACHIAN LATERAL 17 Howard Weil Energy Conference – March 23, 2010 17

Basis Differential Shift Dominion South Point - Niagara Basis Differential Avg. 0.254 Estimates Derived from Forward Basis Numbers Avg. 0.122 Avg. 0.119 Avg. 0.092 Avg. (0.07) Drivers of this: Inc supply (Marcellus) Dec supply out of Canada Inc load in Canada Sum10 Feb/Mar10 Sum11 Feb-06 May-06 Aug-06 Nov-06 Feb-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Win10/11

EXPANSION INITIATIVES Tioga County Extension PIPELINE & STORAGE EXPANSION INITIATIVES WEST TO EAST EXPANSION HORIZONTAL DRILLING ACTIVITY VERTICAL DRILLING ACTIVITY LAMONT COMPRESSOR STATION TIOGA COUNTY EXTENSION EAST BRANCH STORAGE GALBRAITH STORAGE All contacted volumes - Transport back to TCPL at Chippawa, w/ access to TGP 200 line Tioga Cty production MENTION PHASE II Key Points Provides critical infrastructure to support developing Appalachian production Enhances market access to areas such as Leidy, Ellisburg, plus other NFGSC interconnects Third party access to TETCO, DTI, Empire, Millennium, Transco, TGP, and TCPL (Niagara) Readily expands as Marcellus shale and other production grows Access to all NFGSC on-system and off-system points creates diverse market access 16 miles of 24” pipe extending from Corning, NY to Tioga County, PA Provides at least 200,000 dth/d of incremental transportation capacity from the Marcellus fairway Deliveries include Millennium (Corning), TCPL (Chippawa), and other “on path points” on Empire, plus proposed new interconnect with TGP Open Season ended October 23, 2009; Negotiating PAs Phase II Project Expansion Further South to TGP 300 Line Facilities: Approximately 20 Miles of 24” Pipeline Compression in Tioga County, PA to TGP Mainline Compression in Ontario County, NY Combined Capacity of 550,000 to 600,000 Dth/d Without Looping Open Season Envisioned for 3Q FY 2010 Potential In-service 2013 WEST TO EAST PHASE 1 & PHASE 2 Tioga County Extension Planned Capacity >300,000 Dth/d Anticipated In-Service Date September 2011 Estimated CAPEX Investment $45 MM 2 Producer Commitments LINE “N” EXPANSION APPALACHIAN LATERAL 19 Howard Weil Energy Conference – March 23, 2010 19

Tioga County Extension Phase II Tioga County Expansion Tioga County Extension Phase II TGP 300 Line

“Northern Access” Expansion Project Compression at Ellisburg and East Aurora Modifications to Niagara Spur Pipeline System South-to-North Transportation Path Creates a South to North path on the existing system Enables Marcellus shale and traditional production gas to reach liquid markets at Niagara and Dawn Niagara Production to TGP 200 Line and TransCanada Niagara Sources: TGP 300 Line, Transco-Leidy, and Potter County Target In-service: 2012 Open Season Closed February 17, 2010 Service Requests for 1.6 Bcf/d Awarding 320,000 Dth/d Evaluating Additional Capacity up to 450,000 Dth/d

Marcellus Shale Key Transportation Challenges Gas Quality/Interchangeability Creditworthiness of Producers to Support New Facilities Matching Project timelines with drilling timelines Shifting Pipeline Grid Dynamics & Valuation Varying producer risk tolerances Keeping up with IC requests Varying producer risk tolerances (ie,willingness to take capacity before they know what their production numbers really are) In many cases very understandable in light of the challenges they face, such as: Drilling techniques Commodity prices Regulatory environment Water permits; disposal permits Taxes & fees Processing; pipeline quality gas Getting gas to market

On the Horizon…. New supply areas will crowd out traditional ones All bets off with regard to traditional flows, basis, and commodity pricing Certain oversupplied producing areas/pipes could see price bloodletting Canadian markets will soon gain access to Marcellus supply Utilities: encouraged by proliferation of Marcellus gas and beginning to adjust portfolios Large need for midstream/gathering infrastructure Eventually downstream expansion projects will be built – expensive - but starting to see some of this A pretty interesting and exciting time for those of us involved in this new play…..and lots more to come

Please visit us at www.nationalfuelgas.com Thank You Please visit us at www.nationalfuelgas.com