1 Climate change and the cryosphere

2 Outline Background, climatology & variability Role of snow in the global climate system Contemporary observations of climate change Cryospheric indicators of climate change Future global & regional projections & implications of climate change

3 Background, climatology & variability

4 20 th Century Climatology Observed GFDL Ref: Masuda

5 Current snow coverage 1 April 2013

6 Departure from average 1 April 2013

7 Seasonal climatology

8 Observed & GFDL Northern Hemisphere Snow Extent (x10 6 km 2 ), SeasonOBSGFDLMAERMSE Winter Spring Summer Fall Annual

9 Mean annual maximum monthly snow water equivalent (mm) in Canada, (Brown et al. 2003)

10 Current SWE in the Prairies

11 Monthly Eurasian standardized snow cover extent anomalies

12 Interannual variability Source: Karl et al. (1993).

13 Role of snow in the global climate system

14 Annual cycle of daily discharge in Skeena River ( ) freshet

15 Contribution of snow to river runoff Source: Barnett et al. (2005).

16 Teleconnections Definition: Atmospheric interactions between widely separated regions that have been identified through statistical correlations (in space and time). For example, the El Niño teleconnection with the Southwest United States involves large-scale changes in climatic conditions that are linked to increased winter rainfall.

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18 Correlation coefficient between annual Eurasian snow extent anomalies & discharge anomalies the following year in 64 rivers of northern Canada Source: Déry et al. (2005), JGR.

19 Observed 20 th century climate change

20 Warming air temperatures Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia,

21 20 th century climate & trends Reference: Déry and Wood (2005)

22 Trends in global surface air temperature

23 Trends in global surface precipitation

24 Cryospheric indicators of global change Snow depth, swe, density, albedo & temperature (heat content) Duration of snow cover & growing season Snowmelt/spring freshet date Soil moisture

25 Snow depth Source: Curtis et al. (1998), Int. J. Climatology

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27 Annual cycle of daily snow accumulation (SWE) at Barkerville

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29 Trend (%) in April 1 st swe, Source: Mote et al. (2005), BAMS

30 Albedo Source: Stone et al. (2002), JGR.

31 Trend (days/year) in snow cover duration,

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33 Snowmelt Date Source: Stone et al. (2002), JGR.

34 Reference: Déry and Brown (2007)

35 Annual cycle of daily runoff for the Little Swift River near Barkerville

36 Trend in centre of volume in river discharge across western N. America Source: Stewart et al. (2005), J. Climate.

37 Future projections & implications of global change

38 Components of the climate system

39 IPCC 4th Assessment

40 IPCC 4th Assessment

41 Expected indicators of climate change IPCC 3 rd Assessment

42 IPCC 4th Assessment

43 IPCC 4th Assessment

44 IPCC 4 th Assessment Runs

45 Trends in Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent Source: Déry et al. (2006), JGR.

46 Projected change in seasonal snow cover frequency based on GFDL CM2 simulations (21 st - 20 th century) Projected change in frequency -0

47 Trends in Northern Hemisphere snow mass

48 Projected change in seasonal snow water equivalent (swe) based on GFDL CM2 simulations (21 st - 20 th century) Projected change in swe (mm)

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50 Regional climate (baseline) Source: PCIC (

51 Temperature Projections

52 Precipitation projections

53 Regional Projections for snow

54 Implications of global change Increase in planetary albedo (positive feedback on global warming) Decreasing water resources, including soil moisture Longer growing season Impacts on recreational activities Ecological implications

55 Further reading:

56 Points of Discussion: Which component of the cryosphere is most vulnerable to climate change? What are the possible environmental impacts of climate change in Prince George, B.C., Canada? Will there be any jobs for cryospheric scientists in the 21 st century?