What is Theory?

Theory is NOT: Correlation Description Interpretation Absence of data Ideology

Theory IS: A general, abstract explanation

Theories simplify reality The world is complex Theories tell us what to pay attention to

Theories have empirical implications Assume the existence of a real world Aim to increase understanding, not to accomplish political, moral, or social ends Have empirical implications If X, then Y, where X and Y are observables

Social theories Explain social rather than individual outcomes We are interested in explaining the behavior of social systems rather than of individuals

Social theories Are composed of Causal relations Causal mechanisms

Causal Relations The outcome The thing you are trying to explain Also called Dependent variable Effect

Causal Relations, cont’d The cause A factor such that change in it is associated with change in the outcome Also called Independent variable

Causal Relations, cont’d So, X causes Y if by modifying X, one can affect Y An explanation includes an assertion of such a causal relation

Causal Mechanisms The link between the cause and the outcome In other words, the process through which the cause leads to the outcome We will say more about this later

How do we know which theory is best? Empirical evidence Theories produce empirical predictions about how change in a causal variable will affect an outcome variable These predictions are called hypotheses

Example: Durkheim’s theory of suicide The level of individualism in a group affects the rate of suicide in the group Individualism – a cause The degree to which individual activities are controlled by individuals themselves rather than by others Suicide rate – an outcome Some countries/groups have a low rate; others a relatively high one

Empirical implications If Protestants are more individualistic than Catholics Then Protestants in France will have higher suicide rates than Catholics in France If unmarried men are more individualistic than married men Then unmarried men will have a higher rate of suicide than married men

Empirical implications, cont’d To determine whether the predictions are supported by the data, we must pay attention to three things: Correlation Causal Order Spuriousness

Correlation A change in X is associated with a change in outcome Y

Causal order The cause must occur before the effect It is possible to change the value of the dependent variable by changing the causal variable In other words, if you change X, Y will change Cause Outcome (x) (Y)

Non-spuriousness To infer causality, all possible spurious causes of Y (the dependent variable) must be ruled out That is, the researcher must determine that a third variable is not responsible for the observed relation between X and Y

Example: The Protestant Ethic Max Weber noted that the initial geographic distribution of European industrial capitalism seemed correlated with the % of Protestants in a country Protestantism  industrial capitalism Possible spurious causes Perhaps countries with large coal reserves tended to be Protestant If coal reserves  industrial capitalism, then Protestantism is a spurious relation

Example The Protestant Ethic CapitalismProtestantism Coal Reserves

Assessing theories If the theoretical predictions are consistent with what we observe, then we have more confidence in the theory

Caveats Very few ‘classical theories’ live up to these expectations They do not always explicitly articulate causal relations and causal mechanisms Not many contemporary ones do, either

Theories are imperfect Theories simplify reality Theories must omit much, must overemphasize much Hence, all theories are imperfect

How to choose between rival theories? Ultimate criterion: empirical adequacy The best theory is the one that is most consistent with observable empirical phenomena