Economic Aspects of Trichomoniasis: Effects on US Cattle Herd NIAA/USAHA Joint Forum on Trichomoniasis Standards Omaha, Nebraska April 3, 2014 David P. Anderson

Overview Texas Industry Economic Impact Ranch Level Impact Trich

TX Industry Assumptions 20 Percent of Herds –Herd vs cattle –Last data about 150,000 operations Weighted Average of Weaning Rates –85% on 80% of cattle –73% on 20% of cattle Estimated Number of Calves Not Produced

TX Industry Assumptions 90 Day Calving Interval Other Scenarios Are Reasonable Tradeoff –Chose to go with 90 interval –Impact of disease on number of calves rather than weights –Can assume longer calving interval, more calves but lighter weights

Impact Lose Approximately 96,000 Calves –Lost potential About 2.5 Percent Fewer Calves At 2013 Average Prices $95 Million in Revenue –Cow/Calf Value –Revenue that was not realized

Impact If evaluated at Feedlot, Finished Level –96,000 more fed cattle Total Revenue Lost –$156 million

Couple Other Comments Given Infrastructure Losses of Late –96,000 more fed cattle is a pretty good size feedlot –96,000 more head for a packing plant

Representative Ranch Analysis AFPC Representative Ranches Representative Ranches Guthrie –335 cows –Used to be 500 before the drought Base and 1 Scenario –Base 85 percent weaning –Trich scenario 73 percent weaning

Change in Revenue, NCFI, 2016

Ranch Level Impacts Decline in Revenue and NCFI –9%, 81%, respectively Significant Impact on Ranch Economics Annual Effects –Cumulative over time is large

Remaining Work Formalize Alternative Scenarios –Alternative calving intervals –Impacts on number of calves and calf weights Extend Analysis to Representative Ranches in Other States Write the Analysis Up and Publish –Get analysis out to wider audience