An Overview of The National Climate Assessment CLIVAR Washington, DC January 9, 2012 Katharine Jacobs Office of Science and Technology Policy

Global Change Research Act (1990), Section 106 …not less frequently than every 4 years, the Council… shall prepare… an assessment which– integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the Program and discusses the scientific uncertainties associated with such findings; analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and analyzes current trends in global change, both human- induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. 2

What is New About the 2013 National Climate Assessment (NCA) Sustainable process with multiple products over time New topics, cross-sectoral studies Consistent national matrix of indicators Central coordination, multiple partners, distributed process Regional and sectoral networks building assessment capacity Recognizes international context Engagement and communications focus Web-based data and tools for decision support Process workshops to establish methodologies 3

Outline for 2013 Report The scientific basis for climate change Sectors and sectoral cross-cuts Regions and biogeographical cross-cuts Decision support, mitigation and adaptation Agenda for climate change science The NCA long-term process 4

Sectors Water resources Energy supply and use Transportation Agriculture Forestry Ecosystems and biodiversity Human health 5

Sectoral Cross-Cuts Water, energy, and land use Urban/infrastructure/ vulnerability Impacts of climate change on tribal, indigenous, and native lands and resources Land use and land cover change Rural communities and development Impacts on biogeochemical cycles 6

Regions 7 Northeast Southeast and Caribbean Midwest Great Plains Northwest Southwest Alaska and Arctic Hawaii and Pacific Islands + Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands + Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, American Samoa and other minor outlying islands

Biogeographical Cross-Cuts Oceans and marine resources Coastal zone, development, and ecosystems, e.g., – SF Bay Delta – Chesapeake Bay – Gulf Coast Watersheds, e.g., – Great Lakes – Colorado River – Columbia River – Mississippi River 8

9 Assessment Structure 9 CENRS/OSTP US Global Change Research Program (Federal) USGCRP Principals Interagency National Climate Assessment (INCA) Task Force Assessment Staff Technical Support and Coordination units (e.g. NCDC) Network of Partners and Stakeholders Regional Networks Professional Societies Citizen Groups NGOs National Climate Assessment Development and Advisory Committee (NCADAC) a.k.a. Federal Advisory Committee NCADAC Working Groups Regions (SW, NE, etc.) Sectors (water, energy, etc.) Data Management Science Scenarios Indicators Etc.

National Climate Assessment Development and Advisory Committee 60 member federal advisory committee, including 44 non-federal members and 16 federal ex-officio representatives –Chair: Jerry Melillo, Marine Biological Laboratory –Vice Chairs: T.C. Richmond, GordonDerr, LLP and Gary Yohe, Wesleyan University –13 member Executive Secretariat Wide variety of expertise and perspectives Providing advice on both the 2013 Report AND on the ongoing process Responsible for authoring the Assessment report(s) to the USGCRP that will be the basis of the report to the President and Congress 10

NCADAC Working Groups 1.Scenarios and Regional Summaries 2.Request for Information 3.Peer Review, Information Standards, and Access 4.Engagement, Communication, and Evaluation 5.Regional Coordination 6.Sectoral Coordination 7.Science of Climate Change 8.Agenda for Climate Change Science 9.Adaptation and Mitigation 10.Indicators Development and Evaluation 11.International 12.Sustained Process 11

NCAnet: Partners in Assessment A network of organizations that extend the NCA process and products to a broader audience through their stakeholders and members Building long-term capacity to conduct and use assessments Cultivating partnerships with organizations that will participate in the sustained assessment process 12

Guidance to Teams Risk based framing Assessing and communicating confidence levels and uncertainties Information quality and documentation: transparency and “chain of custody” of information is critical Four scenarios provided: –Climate –Sea level change –Land use and land cover –Socioeconomic information Focus on community and capacity building Start with 2009 report, identify the new news Consider international context, adaptation and mitigation options, research needs, next steps for the sustained assessment, etc. 13

14 NCADAC Meeting, November 16-17, Report Production Timeline Expressions of Interest Oct 1, 2011 Development Of technical input Mar 1, 2012 Author teams incorporate Technical Input and other sources, draft chapters and suggest downstream products and processes to the NCADAC O May CLAs and editors synthesize chapters and NCADAC reviews full document Oct SANDOSANDJFMAMJJ NRC, Agency, and Public review CLAs and NCADAC revise draft OSANDJFMAMJJ NRCNRC Jan Feb 1 Mar 1 Jul 1 Agency SIGN OFF Web and summary layout and printing NCADAC to consider revisions (from agencies and EOP) and approve report 2 nd NRC Review: Were comments adequately addressed? Oct Request to NRC and USGCRP agencies to hear preliminary presentations of potential key conclusions to identify potential “show-stoppers” (July, 2012) CLA mtg. (Jan. 2012) Aug Jun1 Rough layout Executive Office of the President comments and adopts Deadline for new information included in draft report (July 31, 2012) Add information only in response to review comments (deadline: April 30, 2013) Draft chapters due (June 1, 2012) Document comments, and review editors to judge adequacy of responses (iterative process)

Outcomes of the NCA Ongoing, relevant analysis of scientific understanding of climate change impacts, risk, and vulnerability Enhanced timely access to Assessment-related data from multiple sources Systematic evaluation of progress towards reducing risk, vulnerability, and impacts A sustained process for informing an integrated research program Evaluation of the implications of alternative adaptation and mitigation options Information that provides the foundation for a science-based national discourse on climate change 15