Effects of Global Warming on Agriculture Production in the Midwest Created By: Joshua Roland Schuh Benjamin Seffel Moore Stuart Augustine Olson.

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Presentation transcript:

Effects of Global Warming on Agriculture Production in the Midwest Created By: Joshua Roland Schuh Benjamin Seffel Moore Stuart Augustine Olson

Introduction Goal –Understand the effects of climate change for future corn production Runs –3 different runs Business as usual Increased CO2 Steady CO2 Characteristics of Corn –Planting season –Late vegetation stage –Reproductive phase

Output Data Time Range for Output –March/April/May –June/July/August Variables –March/April/May Snow/ice coverage Minimum air temperature in April –June/July/August Surface air temperatures Precipitation P-E Soil moisture

Results Enhanced Global Warming

Business as usual Global Warming

Global Warming with CO2 stabilized at 450ppm

Economical Impacts Intensified “global warming” and “Business as Usual” runs –Decrease in ground moisture primarily during summer months –Decrease of precipitation minus evaporation –Increase in surface air temperature During spring months: growing season much longer and activity more fruitful (Intensified global warming showed these to a greater extent)‏ –Effects on corn production: Most likely inhibit proper germination in early reproductive stages, due to the plants sensitivity to atmospheric stresses (above)‏ Stabilized “global warming at 450ppm” run –Increase in precipitation minus evaporation increase in soil moisture most importantly during summer months –Surface air temperature increases; but to a lesser degree during spring months As compared to above –Effects on corn production: Increased productivity: –Less extreme forcings during important stages of growth: Temperature Moisture

Economical Impacts –Increased demand for corn in U.S. Most importantly today: ethanol –Government push to decrease foreign fossil fuel dependence –Ethanol plant number 7/07: 124 plants in U.S. Currently: 82 plants being built or under construction Ethanol “pressures” Midwestern livestock farmers U.S. exports “Land wars” –All of these effects will be enhanced due to the decrease in corn yields as shown previously in our run synopsis

Conclusions If fossil fuel use remains at the current rate or increases we would expect a general decrease in corn yield throughout the Midwest due primarily to moisture stress. The economic forcings could be disastrous for Midwestern corn producers; and would enhance the issues surrounding ethanol production and importation of corn, further hurting corn producers throughout the Midwest.