“Problems are defined in politics to accomplish political goals—to mobilize support for one side in a conflict. “Problems are defined in politics to accomplish political goals—to mobilize support for one side in a conflict. “To define an issue is to make an assertion about what is at stake and who is affected and, therefore, to define interests and reconfigure alliances. “To define an issue is to make an assertion about what is at stake and who is affected and, therefore, to define interests and reconfigure alliances. “There is no such thing as an apolitical problem definition… “There is no such thing as an apolitical problem definition…

“…the astute analyst needs to ask how that definition defines interested parties and stakes, how it allocates the roles of bully and underdog, and how a different definition would change power relations.” “…the astute analyst needs to ask how that definition defines interested parties and stakes, how it allocates the roles of bully and underdog, and how a different definition would change power relations.”

Numbers How do numbers function as metaphors? How do numbers function as metaphors? Unemployment Unemployment What is “wrongful exclusion?” What is “wrongful exclusion?” Counting homeless people Counting homeless people “What is “wrongful inclusion?” “What is “wrongful inclusion?” New jobs? Hospital beds? New jobs? Hospital beds?

Numbers How do numbers function normatively? How do numbers function normatively? The number implies something is wrong or something is right The number implies something is wrong or something is right “Full employment” “Full employment” “Middle class’ “Middle class’

Numbers Impart an aura of expertise Impart an aura of expertise Occurs enough to bother counting Occurs enough to bother counting Establish clear boundaries Establish clear boundaries Race/ethnicity Race/ethnicity Create groups Create groups Political mobilization Political mobilization Weighing and balancing becomes possible Weighing and balancing becomes possible Roe v. Wade Roe v. Wade

Reactions to Numbers People know they are being counted or measured, and act accordingly People know they are being counted or measured, and act accordingly Numbers are reported, so they have inertia Numbers are reported, so they have inertia Can be turned into public demands Can be turned into public demands Measurers have all sorts of discretion Measurers have all sorts of discretion Alliances between measurers and measured Alliances between measurers and measured Attempts to control interpretation Attempts to control interpretation

Causes Causal Reasoning in Physics Try to determine what causes Y by examining X1, X2, X3, etc. With the goal of understanding something about the natural world. Even after a cause is discovered, scientists continue to test whether it is indeed the cause. Causal Reasoning in the Polis Each sides pretends they are trying to find the “true” cause, but really… The goal is to assign past blame and future control.

Causes in the Polis Challenge or protect existing set of rules, institutions, and interests. Challenge or protect existing set of rules, institutions, and interests. Assign blame. Assign blame. Create “fixers.” Create “fixers.”

Types of Causes An earthquake occurs in Silicon Valley. Right afterwards, financial terrorists hack NASDAQ. Millions of hi-tech stocks are sold off, causing a stock market crash. An earthquake occurs in Silicon Valley. Right afterwards, financial terrorists hack NASDAQ. Millions of hi-tech stocks are sold off, causing a stock market crash. Accidental Cause Accidental Cause An earthquake in Silicon Valley. An earthquake in Silicon Valley. Intentional Cause Intentional Cause Financial terrorists hacked NASDAQ. Financial terrorists hacked NASDAQ.

Types of Causes Inadvertent Cause Inadvertent Cause Government allowed a hi-tech monopoly to exist, infrastructure could not withstand a strong earthquake, people were not prepared for an emergency, financial industry not secure enough. Government allowed a hi-tech monopoly to exist, infrastructure could not withstand a strong earthquake, people were not prepared for an emergency, financial industry not secure enough. Mechanical Cause Mechanical Cause A computer program meant to make stock trading more efficient allowed terrorists to gain access. A computer program meant to make stock trading more efficient allowed terrorists to gain access.

Causal Strategies - Sandy Caused by an accident of nature. Caused by an accident of nature. Poor infrastructure, poor procedures in place Poor infrastructure, poor procedures in place Caused by a bad bureaucracy. Caused by a bad bureaucracy. Someone intended the effects. Someone intended the effects.

Interests People and organizations who have a stake in an issue. People and organizations who have a stake in an issue. But… But… People don’t always know their interests. People don’t always know their interests. Policymakers try to gather support by explaining to folks what their interests are. Policymakers try to gather support by explaining to folks what their interests are. But we’re a bundle of interests, sometimes competing. But we’re a bundle of interests, sometimes competing.

Rhetorical Characterizations Good Weak Interests Collective Diffused Broad Long-term Social Public “The People” 99% Bad Strong Interests Individualistic Concentrated Narrow Short-term Economic Special Elites 1%

Rational Choice Theory Prisoner’s Dilemma Prisoner’s Dilemma Free-rider Problem Free-rider Problem How does Stone react to these? How does Stone react to these?

Costs and Benefits Diffused and Concentrated Costs Diffused and Concentrated Costs Diffused and Concentrated Benefits Diffused and Concentrated Benefits According to James Q. Wilson, how do these interact in the polity? According to James Q. Wilson, how do these interact in the polity?

Can either of these save us? Utilitarianism Utilitarianism Deontological theories of morality Deontological theories of morality If they can’t… what do we do? If they can’t… what do we do?

Costs and Benefits Diffused and Concentrated Costs Diffused and Concentrated Costs Diffused and Concentrated Benefits Diffused and Concentrated Benefits According to James Q. Wilson, how do these interact in the polity? According to James Q. Wilson, how do these interact in the polity?

But James Q. Wilson is missing something critical (at least according to Stone, but I think she’s right.) What is it? But James Q. Wilson is missing something critical (at least according to Stone, but I think she’s right.) What is it? PERCEPTIONS are what determines what is diffused or concentrated. PERCEPTIONS are what determines what is diffused or concentrated. So we fight over what the PERCEPTIONS should be. So we fight over what the PERCEPTIONS should be.

Rational Decision-Making 1.) Define a goal. 1.) Define a goal. 2.) Imagine several means toward achieving goal. 2.) Imagine several means toward achieving goal. 3.) Evaluate likely consequences of each means. 3.) Evaluate likely consequences of each means. 4.) Choose the best means to achieve goal. 4.) Choose the best means to achieve goal. Seems simple enough, but what are the complications with each in policy decision making?

Rational Decision-Making 1.) Define a goal. 1.) Define a goal. 2.) Imagine several means toward achieving goal. 2.) Imagine several means toward achieving goal. 3.) Evaluate likely consequences of each means. 3.) Evaluate likely consequences of each means. 4.) Choose the best means to achieve goal. 4.) Choose the best means to achieve goal. Seems simple enough, but what are the complications with each in policy decision making?