CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Benjamin Schlesinger, Ph.D. Benjamin Schlesinger and Associates, Inc. (BSA) Black Sea Energy Conference Bucharest – April 3-4, 2006

Conference Theme  Promote an approach for the Black Sea region similar to that of the EU internal energy market, which is established in the Green Paper of the Energy Policy for Europe.  Enhance the coordination and role of energy regulators.  Move toward specific project recommendations to help achieve common energy goals of the Black Sea Countries

World Oil Reserves Source: Energy and Environmental Analysis 2006, from Oil & Gas Journal.

World Gas Reserves Source: Energy and Environmental Analysis 2006, from Oil & Gas Journal.

Priorities, Strategies for Regional Cooperation States of the Black Sea region have presented national energy strategies and most important projects they intend to carry out. Romania, Azerbaijan, Georgia and other countries in the region have identified priority projects: –Romania has specific interest in Nabuco for natural gas and PEOP for oil transport. –The Minister of Energy of Azerbaijan declared his country’s intention to participate in Black Sea Investment projects and become a trusted partner for western participants. He underlined interest in Nabuco project. –Georgia and Armenia both expressed that they welcome regional infrastructure that allows them to act as transit countries for Caspian and Central Asian energy resources. –RAO EES Russia summarized their study of interconnecting the UCTE system with the IPS/UPS system.

Priorities, Strategies for Regional Cooperation Convergence of regulatory regimes is a prerequisite of: Proper conditions for improving the business environment and attracting regional investment Enforcing security and stability; Black Sea is essential to development of EU energy market Improving customer service through enhancing market and corporate governance transparency, energy access and affordability, and security and reliability of energy supply.

Priorities, Strategies for Regional Cooperation EU and US both support launching of dialogue among energy regulatory institutions while building on the existing EU – Black Sea region structures. The Black Sea energy regulatory and market framework can be brought into full compliance with the European acquis, much like SEE Energy Community, starting with a BS Energy Regulatory Roundtable. USAID is designing a program to support the goal of achieving a single regulatory space for EU, SEE and BS region. Multilateral regional solutions are necessary to address all interconnection issues, to harmonize trade rules, stabilize transaction and investment procedures and customs legislation. Transparent, predictable, and market-based tariffs for transportation of electricity and natural gas are of crucial importance for the development of regional energy trade, including energy transit.

Priorities, Strategies for Regional Cooperation ENEL of Italy outlined principles to promote capital investment – firm schedule for reform and alignment with EU standards. Romania’s experience can be a model for reform that creates conditions for private investment. Countries in the Black Sea region need to achieve a balanced fuel mix, and keep the focus on affordability. Special priority should be given to cost effective energy efficiency, particularly for thermal rehabilitation of buildings and gas-based cogeneration technologies. Finding a way to finance demand- reduction technologies is critical. For Romania, these two options should be considered the top priorities for the energy sector. Romania, in cooperation with the CAEC is developing new nuclear power units as a means of reducing imported oil, and controlling carbon emissions.

Priorities, Strategies for Regional Cooperation Sweden is an example of diversification of primary energy sources. Provides vibrant case study for countries in the region, on incorporating range of technologies, demand and supply side options. –Reduced dependence on oil from 80% in mid-70s to about 30% now, primarily in transport sector –Increased use of bio energy, now 17% of total energy supply –Increased energy efficiency, particularly in buildings and industrial sector –Drastic reduction in sulfur and NOx emissions to reduce acid rain –In diversifying, setting targets for renewables’ share helps to keep focus on sustainable energy and environmental solutions.

Discussion