Imperfect Testing Unit 7 Lesson 1 and 2

Lesson One Part One Vocabulary Sample Representative sample Population Percentage Pie chart

For large groups, surveying makes it easier to find a representative sample of a group. This is a group that would be similar to an entire group been studied. Estimation

Sensitive Questioning Have you ever used an illegal drug? Because this a sensitive question and because students themselves would be interested in each other’s answers, you probably could not guarantee to keep all responses confidential. Instead, ask a less sensitive questions.

Estimation Continued Approximate Probability Estimate Percentage Event Mutually Exclusive Events Complementary Events Scatter Plot

Events and Probability For many experiments, some outcomes are more likely than others. Event: an outcome or collection of outcomes Probability: how likely a particular event is to occur.

TI 83 Simulation Set a seed number, a non-zero number and store in rand. Set the number of draws. Enter the portion of population that has the trait that you are surveying. This works for well when you have a huge number of draws. It would take a long time to simulate 500 draws or surveys by hand.

Mutual or Complementary? 8 th Grader; 6 th Grader You can’t fit into both categories, so this would be a mutually exclusive event. 8 th grader and not an 8 th grader. When two mutually exclusive events combined comprise of an entire population, you get a complementary event

On One Condition Vocabulary Variable Randomizing Device Misleading

The Warner Model The Warner Model of randomized response technique is used to get a more accurate answer to sensitive survey questions. This is a two stage process. 1 st Stage: Select the statement 2 nd Stage: Make sure the response is Yes or No

Probability and Events Vocabulary Conditional Probability Unconditional Probability Dependent Events Independent Events Tree Diagrams Glyph Diagrams Two-way table

Probability in an Event Unconditional Probability- Only fits into or can answer in one way. Example: Student participates in after school activities. Conditional Probability- Only fit into or can answer only one way but there is a condition you have to answer. This will have a Yes/No answer. Example: Student participates in after school activities and is a girl.

Two Way Table Total Event One: Yes Event One: No Event Two: YesEvent Two: No

Tree Diagram Total Population Stage One Stage Two

Summary Probability represents the long- term relative frequency of some event’s occurring. One way to estimate a probability is to count the number of successes in a set of trials. Sometimes different events in an experiment are related in some way. For example, think of some event. This event can either happen or not happen. That means that “not happen” is also an event, and it is clear that these two are related in two ways. First, “happen” and “not happen” cannot both occur on the same observation. These are complementary events. Complementary events represent one possible relationship among events. Events may also be independent or mutually exclusive (which are not the same things). There is a variety of representations prove useful in describing and working with related probabilities. Among these representations are tree diagrams, tables, and glyphs. Remember that every probability shown along a branch segment in a tree diagram is a conditional probability.