After the storm: The influence of Hurricane Ike on visitors’ decisions to visit Galveston, Texas Kyle M. Woosnam, Ph.D. March 23, 2010

Prevalence of Natural Disasters Occurring at unprecedented rates 2010 Haiti Earthquake (200,000 deaths) 2008 Earthquake in Southwest China (75,000 deaths) 2005 Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (2,000 deaths) 2004 Tsunami in Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India, and Thailand (230,000 deaths) Media coverage allows us access to view devastation In addition to loss of life and property, profound economic, social, and environmental ramifications for tourism industry Especially those areas dependent on tourism Destination image associated with disasters can have influence on individuals’ decision to visit (especially through media)

Galveston County and Tourism Situated 30 minutes southeast of Houston in Gulf Coast Region of Texas Rich history of tourism with 32 miles of beaches, the Strand, historic homes district, theme parks, etc. In 2007, Galveston Co. ranked 10 th among counties in state in: Visitor spending at US$737 million (top coastal co. in TX) with 5.4 million visiting Jobs directly created from tourism (9,500) In 2008, GC remained 10 th in state in: Visitor spending at US$764 million Jobs directly created from tourism (9,370)

Hurricane Ike September 13, 2008 Strong Category 2 (with Category 5 equivalent storm surge) landed on Galveston County Third costliest hurricane to hit US (US$27 billion) 195 deaths Largest search and rescue operation in U.S. history Largest evacuation of Texans in state history

Purpose of Study Galveston CVB and local media have speculated spending is down for 2009, but reports will not be out for Co. until summer 2010, which will be best economic measure of impact Currently verdict is still out on Ike’s influence Twofold purpose: 1)to gain better sense of how Ike influenced visitors’ decisions to visit GC first peak tourist season after storm 2)to determine if the degree of influence (positive or negative) can significantly predict the likelihood that visitors will return to GC in the future

Methods Sample and data collection Visitors to GC during first peak tourism season after Ike hit Intercepted at five key locations (i.e., Seawall, Stewart Beach, Moody Gardens, the Strand, and Kemah Boardwalk) Five weekends in July/August 2009 using systematic sampling procedure (every 5 th ) with a random starting point Self-administered survey instrument Effective response rate was 74.6% (N = 447)

Methods Measures and analysis First purpose Measure: “In your own words, how did Hurricane Ike influence your decision to visit Galveston County?” Analysis: Summative content analysis procedure where codes were derived from existing words (raw data), frequencies of codes tabulated, and overarching themes presented from codes Two researchers coded qualitative data yielding 256 common codes (IRR = 96.1) Second purpose Measures: (IV) “To what extent did Ike influence your decision to travel to Galveston County?” (on 7-pt scale; 1 = totally negative to 7 = totally positive) (DV) “If I were to take another vacation, the probability that the vacation would be to Galveston Co. is…” (on 5-pt scale; 1 = very low and 5 = very high) Ran correlation with comparable item for reliability purposes (r = 0.668, p < 0.001) Analysis: Simple linear regression

Findings—1 st Purpose Majority of visitors (n = 221) responded to: “How did Hurricane Ike influence your decision to visit Galveston County?” Five major themes resulted Influential Themes# corresponding codes No influence—visit regardless because place and history126 Curiosity—wanted to see how area recovered and witness community rebuilding 53 Civic responsibility—visiting to boost local economy37 Delayed—wanted to insure infrastructure stable and attractions functioning 31 Continued reluctance9

Findings—1 st Purpose (Positive influential themes) No influence—visit regardless because of place and history “We had grandkids who wanted to come to the beach. This is where we always come so the hurricane didn’t affect our decision. This is our place.” “We felt sorry for the residents. However [Ike] did not impede my enjoyment of Galveston. We plan many day trips year- round here—love the Strand and beach area.” “Been traveling to Galveston for years and will continue to do so. Hurricane Ike will not influence my decision. I couldn’t think of a place I’d rather visit—no matter what the circumstance.”

Findings—1 st Purpose (Positive influential themes) Curiosity—wanted to see how area recovered and witness community rebuilding “We were curious to see the damage.” “I wanted to see the progress Galveston and its residents have made since Ike and the pride the people have in their community.” “I was happy to see the rebuilding and uniting…seeing people work without the absolute need for help from the government.”

Findings—1 st Purpose (Positive influential themes) Civic responsibility—visiting to help boost local economy “We come often during the summer and after Ike hit, we wanted to come back soon to help how we could.” “It is important to rebuild Galveston County. We should support by visiting and spending money to help the economy of Galveston County rebuild.”

Findings—1 st Purpose (Negative influential themes) Delayed—wanted to insure infrastructure stable and attractions functioning “We did not wish to return until the area was stabilized, including roadways, restaurants, and beach services.” “I lived in New Orleans when Rita came through, so mainly I asked, ‘are the hotels and attractions still there?’ before we decided to come.” Still reluctant “Little worried about how the beach would be.” “Made me cautious not wanting to be around broken beach or wreckage.” “I was a bit reluctant to come since the cost of things had not decreased.”

Findings—2 nd Purpose On average, visitors (n = 441) felt Ike had a slightly positive influence (M = 4.66) on their decision to visit. Overall, visitors (n = 446) claimed there was a high likelihood (M = 4.24) they would return. The influence Hurricane Ike had on tourists visiting was a significant predictor (F = 34.02, p < 0.001, R 2 = 0.07) of individuals’ likelihood of revisiting in the future. Only 7% of the variance in likelihood of revisiting was explained by degree of influence Ike had on individuals’ decision to visit.

Limitations Only included those who visited GC after Ike hit, excluding those who did not visit (some of who may have been influenced by Ike not to visit at all) Did not assess how visitors felt about current trip (e.g., satisfaction with amenities, location), which could also contribute to intentions to revisit Especially since only 7% of variance explained by degree of Ike’s influence

Conclusion and Implications It is obvious travelers have a real connection to Galveston Co.—so much so that Ike only seemed to propel tourists to visit Altruistic nature of tourists to visit seen in those who: Took it upon themselves to visit to improve local economy Wanted to witness the rebuilding and sense of community Returned given their strong history with the area Chambers and CVBs should focus on promotion campaigns throughout Texas and Southeast that convey area is: ‘Open for business’ A place residents take pride in rebuilding A destination visitors grow attached to

Galveston County Today Only 1 hotel of over 125 remains closed Almost all restaurants are fully functioning and back in business Even though local media has claimed visitation and spending are currently down for 2009—beaches, stores, and restaurants appear to contradict such claims Caveat—If visitation and spending are down for 2009, state of the economy and current travel patterns may be confounding such figures.

Thank you! Questions? Or Comments?