Mary M. Glackin Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere AMS Summer Community Meeting August 12, 2008

Outline 2 Understanding National Needs Weather and Climate Addressing National Challenges NOAA Products and Services The Future Developing a National Climate Service Fostering Partnerships Developing National Climate Services and Partnerships

The World Has Warmed Developing National Climate Services and Partnerships 4 IMPACTS Drought Receding Barnes Ice Cap

Developing National Climate Services and Partnerships 5 Focus: Changes in weather and climate extremes as related to their intensity or frequency, and their likely future evolution Published June 2008 CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3

Summary of Changes in Weather and Climate Extremes in North America Developing National Climate Services and Partnerships 6 Phenomenon and direction of change Where and when these changes occurred in past 50 years Linkage of human activity to observed changes Likelihood of continued future changes in this century Warmer and fewer cold days and nights Over most land areas, the last 10 years had lower numbers of severe cold waves than any other 10-year period Yes, linked to fewer frosts, lengthening of freeze-free period Very likely Hotter and more frequent hot days and nights Over most of North America Likely linked to warmer nights Very Likely More frequent heat waves and warm spells Over most land areas, most pronounced over northwestern two thirds of North America Likely for certain aspects, e.g., night-time temperatures; & linkage to record high annual temps Very Likely More frequent and intense heavy downpours and higher proportion of total rainfall in heavy precipitation events Over many areas Linkage to increased water vapor, which leads to heavy precipitation events Very likely Increases in area affected by drought No overall trend for U.S., but regional trends are evident Inadequate evidence. Noteworthy linkage between natural patterns of sea surface temperature variability and the 1930’s & 1950’s droughts Likely in Southwest North America More intense hurricanes and other tropical storm activity Substantial increase in Atlantic since 1970; Likely increase in Atlantic since 1950s; Likely decrease in E. Pacific (Mexico West Coast) since 1980 Linkage to increasing sea surface temperature; confident assessment requires further study Likely

User and stakeholder information needs do not distinguish between the weather and climate or differentiate between research and operational Time Scale Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Product Source NOAA Service Requirement Discover CLIMATE WEATHER Proof of Concept ExperimentalOperationalDevelopment RESEARCHOPERATIONS Seamless Suite of User and Stakeholder Information Needs KNOWLEDGE 8

NOAA Products and Services Developing National Climate Services and Partnerships 9 Need to develop further: Assessments Issue-Focused services Decision- Support Tools

Developing National Climate Services and Partnerships 11 Public demand for climate information exceeds current capacity Sources of information are distributed and usually not coordinated Commitment to establish a National Climate Service is needed to integrate provision of NOAA’s climate products and services NOAA needs to engage other agencies and organizations in defining their roles in a National Climate Service partnership Improved capabilities are needed to enable: User and issue focused approach Better monitoring Improve national to local predictions and projections Assessments of impacts and vulnerabilities in support of adaptation and mitigation National Climate Service CarbonTracker

Developing National Climate Services and Partnerships 12 Pending Legislation S – Global Change Research Improvement Act of 2007 Establishes a National Climate Service within NOAA that “shall produce and deliver authoritative, timely and usable information about climate change, climate variability, trends, and impacts on local, State, regional, national, and global scales.” NOAA’s Role is Essential Administration’s views on S “The purpose and functions of a National Climate Service described in this bill are desirable and the Administration supports the designation of NOAA as the lead federal agency for operational climate monitoring and prediction. Most of the infrastructure and institutional capabilities required to fulfill the work of a National Climate Service currently exist, primarily within NOAA.” Congress Has Recognized National Needs EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY WASHINGTON, D.C January 22, 2008 The Honorable Daniel K. Inouye Chairman Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation United States Senate Washington, D.C Dear Mr. Chairman: I write to express the Administration’s views on S. 2307, “The Global Change Research Improvement Act of 2007.” …

Developing National Climate Services and Partnerships 13 Proposed vision : An informed society anticipating and responding to climate and its impacts Proposed mission : develop and deliver research, information and services to enhance society's ability to understand, anticipate, mitigate, and adapt to climate variability and change A National Climate Service

Proposed Strategic Goals 1. Promote a National Climate Services Partnership 2. Build and Sustain Comprehensive Observations and Monitoring Systems 3. Provide State-of-the-Art Research, Modeling, Predictions, and Projections 4. Develop, Deliver, and Communicate Valued Climate Services in Collaboration with Users. A National Climate Service Developing National Climate Services and Partnerships 14

National Climate Service Products and Services Monitoring Research Model development Predictions and projections Archive and access to data Assessments (e.g. IPCC, Unified Synthesis Product) Public outreach and communication Issue-focused services (drought, LMR, coasts) Risk analyses, hazard and early warnings Regional applications, management tools, operational capability Capacity building Coordination and oversight 15 Developing National Climate Services and Partnerships Products and services would include: However, our expectation is that this list will evolve as the climate service partnership grows. BLUE = Indicates services NOAA’s is already providing in some capacity

16 Developing National Climate Services and Partnerships 16 Overarching message from workshop participants The potential of a Climate Service is enormous The scope of a truly successful Climate Service exceeds that of the draft Strategic Plan No clear implementation plan Concluding thoughts from CWG Review team Deliberate pro and con analysis of more than one model for the service Evaluate options with respect to a series of principles and objectives based on this workshop through tiger teams (5-8 people - diverse representation) and a coordinating committee SAB Climate Working Group

Developing National Climate Services and Partnerships 17 NOAA will follow up on recommendations by convening teams and developing a report derived from extended community assessment of four options recommended at the Vail Summer Workshop 1. Create a national climate service federation that would determine how to deliver climate services to the nation 2. Create a non-profit corporation with federal sponsorship 3. Create a national climate service with NOAA as the lead agency with specifically defined partners, and 4. Expand and improve weather services into weather and climate services within NOAA Next Steps

Meeting the Nation’s Challenges Through Partnerships Developing National Climate Services and Partnerships 19