Seasonal Climate Predictability over NAME Region Jae-Kyung E. Schemm CPC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA NAME Science Working Group Meeting 5 Puerto Vallarta, Mexico Nov.

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Presentation transcript:

Seasonal Climate Predictability over NAME Region Jae-Kyung E. Schemm CPC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA NAME Science Working Group Meeting 5 Puerto Vallarta, Mexico Nov. 6-7, 2003

PREDICTABILITY AND FORECAST SKILL IN GLOBAL MODELS Objectives: 1) To examine the predictability of warm season precipitation over the NAM region; 2) To quantify error growth due to model errors versus that due to uncertainties in analyses and boundary conditions; 3) To assess the value of NAME observations for prediction; 4)To help define field campaigns to follow NAME Key Questions (ultimately critical for climate prediction): 1)How is the life cycle of the monsoon related to the evolution of oceanic and continental boundary conditions? 2) Can models reproduce the observed summertime precipitation in average years and years with ENSO influence? Models On board: NSIPP, NCEP/GFS Possible: GFDL, NCAR

Issues in seasonal climate prediction over NAME region with GCM’s Climatology - Are the current GCM’s capable of capturing climatological features of warm season precipitation? Interannual variability - Impact of boundary conditions; SST and soil moisture. Spatial resolution -Topography, SST and land surface conditions

Circulation Climatology

Precipitation Climatology

Histograms of Climatological Daily Precipitation along 107.5W

Area Mean of Climatological Precipitation

Anomaly Correlation Scores of Precipitation over US Monsoon Region

Anomaly Correlation Scores of 2m Temperature over US Region; RNL2

Initial Soil Moisture Anomaly

Impact of SST and Initial Soil Moisture on Warm Season Precipitation Prediction Obs. Anom JJA2003

Summary Assessment of warm season predictability over NAME area with operational NCEP SFM hindcast-forecast suite. Deficiency in GCM climatology in capturing the main circulation characteristics in NAME area. Impact of initial soil moisture on the warm season precipitation prediction over NAME area small but positive, temperature prediction much improved. Hint of improvement in warm season precipitation forecast with higher spatial resolution (T126), Impact of local and remote SST needs to be investigated.