Congress and Fundraising

Opportunities to discuss course content No office hours today or Wednesday Thursday 10-2

Learning Objectives Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election. Evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of how presidential and congressional elections are financed. There is an L in Public, but no L in FECA

THE SENATE

The Dynamics The More Incumbents you have, the more you have to Defend – 23 Democratic Seats – 10 Republican Seats Democrats have a lead

Where Were They?

The Results

What Explains the Results Incumbency Partisanship Candidate Factors – Indiana – Missouri

A Banner Year for Political Money 1 Billion is Spent Outside Money is important, but not crucial

Money isn’t Everything Self Financed candidates still lose Poor David Dewhurst

The Vanishing Center Moderates from Both Parties lost or Retired – Brown & Snow – Lieberman and Nelson Replaced by more extreme candidates from both parties

Looking ahead to 2014 The Republicans expected to gain…they didn’t Democrats have More exposure 7 seats are from states where Obama won

Can the Democrats Expand Only 1 GOP Seat from a State where Obama Won Will the Republicans be “the stupid party”

STATEHOUSE POLITICS

Governor’s Races Footnotes in Presidential Years 11 Elections 5 Open Seats

The Results Incumbents went 6 for 6 North Carolina was the Only Flip GOP has a net gain of +1

The Breakdown Lincoln Chafee (RI) is the independent 2 races in 2013 – Chris Christie (NJ) – Virginia

STATE LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS

Going into 2012 Republicans Held 26 Democrats Held 15 Only 8 legislatures were split

The Results Dems have a pick up of +3, GOP +1 Where Each party Did Well

The Impact of the Election Obama coattails did not reach the states Battles over the Affordable Care Act emerged

Campaign Finance

The First Amendment protects things we might like

And things we might not

Money is a form of Political Speech Buckley v. Valeo At the federal level, fundraising is not capped Neither are expenditures

Money Rules the Day in Politics A History of Campaign Finance

Buying the Presidency You had to have personal wealth or You needed a patron Early laws

FECA 1971 Contribution and Spending Limits Public Financing The Checkoff Box (then and now)

The 1972 election Nixon’s separate fund Exchanging donations for positions

FECA 1974 Goals Enforcement Buckley vs Valeo The Law did restrain Presidential Spending!

The Need for More Legislation BCRA Soft Money The Role of PACS Modernize the contribution amounts

Current Contribution Limits

The Rise and Fall of 527’s 527’s in Why the Decline in 2008 – The rise of 501(c)’s – Recession – Wisconsin Right to Life vs FEC Money always finds a better outlet

HOW TO PAY FOR IT: LESSONS LEARNED FROM 2008 From Uncle Sugar or on your own?

The Most Expensive in History

Campaign Finance in 2008 The First Billion Dollar Presidential Election – The Demise of Public Funding in the General Election – The Rise of the Internet as a fundraising tool These produced a president who would spend ¾ of a billion for a job that pays 400,000.

Overall Spending in 2008 Estimates are at $2.4 billion for the presidency $5.3 billion overall on 2008 Elections

Mc Cain and Public Financing Runs as a reformer, with BCRA as his primary reform achievement McCain’s Decision to accept $84 million hindered his campaign He has 60% less money

We Used to have public financing of Presidential Elections This gave each candidate an equal amount to spend President Obama breaks the trend Obama raised more money than all other candidates combined Obama raised more than the RNC and DNC combined.

Obama has a huge Financial Advantage McCainObama Individuals$195,927,301$656,610,810 PACS$1,412,559$1,280 Federal Funds$84,103,800$0 Other$78,724,163$83,450,000 Total$360,167,823$764,843,332

PUBLIC FINANCING IN 2012

The History of Taking the Money John Connolly and Steve Forbes Bush in 2000 Bush and Kerry in 2004 John Edwards in 2008

Government Money in the Primary Federal Money is available in primary and general election There are Eligibility Requirements, caps on spending, and caps on raising. 22 million from the G, and 55 million cap on spending

Federal Money in the 2012 Primaries In 2012, no one accepts it Candidate strategy helped end this

Public Funding for General Election Each candidate could receive 91 million in public money It doesn’t kick in until you are officially nominated This money served to reduce campaign costs and remove any potential for corruption

At the Presidential Level

This is Hard Money

The Future of Public Financing There is no strategic reason to favor it The Internet The low federal limit The Taboo was broken