Status and Changes to the US National Emissions Inventory (NEI) Thompson G. Pace, PE U.S. EPA Research Triangle Park, NC

2 Overview of this Presentation Brief Perspective on The US’s PM Problems The US’s National Emissions Inventory  Current Practices  Changes being considered / implemented Specific source categories (and process- based model development)  Wildland Fires  Fugitive Dust  Mobile Sources  Ammonia

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4 PM2.5 Ambient Composition

5 Total Carbon – Directly Emitted PM2.5 ( National Emissions ~ 2M TPY)

6 SO2 – Precursor to Ammonium Sulfate Formation (National Emissions ~ 17.6 M TPY)

7 NH3 – Precursor to Ammonium Sulfate & Nitrate (National Emissions ~ 4.8 M TPY)

8 Crustal Materials (Mainly Fugitive Dust) PM2.5 is usually < 1 ug/m3 annual average  Exception: Most of Southwest, California Main Sources:  Unpaved roads  Agricultural tilling  Construction  Windblown dust  Fly ash Large emissions – low transportable fraction

NEI Development ~ Cooperative, Iterative

10 Changes to NEI Preparation Process 12 month Schedule is being considered  (now 36 months) Improving the Technical Infrastructure  Develop Improved Tools Data Acquisition, Estimation & Distribution New technologies must be used  GIS  Process Models  Remote Sensing  PM2.5 Program Priorities Wildland Fires, Fugitive Dust, Mobile Sources & Ammonia

11 Fuel Type and Loading Fuel Consumption Emissions Production Dispersion / AQ Modeling / Monitoring Fire Occurrence Fire Emissions Process Modeling

12 Tools to Support Fire Emissions Estimation Fire Occurrence Databases  Ground-based data systems  Remote Sensing

Comparison of Ground Reported and Remote Sensed Fires August 1, 2001

14 Potential Role(s) for Remote Sensing in Fire Emissions Estimation and Smoke Transport Fire Identification & Characterization  Time & date, location, size Fuel Characterization (Fuel Type & Loading)  Default maps (resolution, specificity)  Natural alterations to “default” conditions  Fuel treatments to reduce fire hazard  Fuel moisture Emissions Production  Heat release & emissions  Plume initial conditions Transport & transformation  Terrain  Impacted populations Ground-truthing  Actual vs modeled plume path  fixed networks & portable monitoring * Re

15 Tools to Support Fire Emissions Estimation Fire Occurrence Databases  Ground-based data systems  Remote Sensing Fire Emissions Modeling  AP-42 and past National Emissions Inventories Methods simplistic, migrating to newer tools for 2002 (v2)  Current: NFDRS, Consume, FOFEM, EPM  New: Fire Emissions Production Simulator (FEPS) replaces EPM  New: FCC national fuels mapping replacement for NFDRS

16 Tools to Support Fire Emissions Estimation Fire Occurrence Databases  Ground-based data systems  Remote Sensing Fire Emissions Modeling  AP-42 and past National Emissions Inventories Methods simplistic, migrating to newer tools for 2002 (v2)  Current: NFDRS, Consume, FOFEM, EPM  New: Fire Emissions Production Simulator (FEPS) replaces EPM  New: FCC national fuels mapping replacement for NFDRS BlueSky system  BlueSky-EM (emissions)  RAINS  Grid-model Linkage

17 BlueSkyRAINS ~ Output Products

18 Example Fire Trajectories for August 1, 2004 [BlueSkyRAINS (BSR) and Hazard Mapping System (HMS) Disagree] Legend BSR Fire HMS Fire Trajectories by BSR Modeling (Every 3 Hr) Trajectories by Remote Sensing (AM & PM)

19 Fugitive Dust Technical Issues  Emissions very high (wrt) crustal matter in samples  PM2.5 to PM10 Ratio  Removal of dust near the source (< 100m)

20 Fugitive Dust Technical Issues  Emissions very high (wrt) crustal matter in samples  PM2.5 to PM10 Ratio  Removal of dust near the source (< 100m) Process-based Emissions Model (future)  Soil / road surface silt content  Soil moisture  Rainfall  Crop cover  Ground cover  Wind speed

21 Other PM Priority Source Categories Mobile Sources  Mobile 6 & NONROAD (2004 version)  NMIM, consolidated model w/ county database Temperature, barometric pressure Fuel properties Vehicle Kilometers Traveled  Complete rework of models forthcoming Multi-scale mOtor Vehicle & equipment Emissions System Ammonia  Process-based model under development by RPO’s Condensibles  Including condensibles increased PM2.5 significantly

22 In Summary NEI Development Schedule  We believe the US can shorten its NEI development schedule by factor of 2 or 3 Better utilization of emerging technologies  GIS,  Remote Sensing,  Process-based emissions models Priority categories for PM  Wildland Fires  Fugitive Dust  Mobile Sources  Ammonia  Condensibles