LAO State Budget Update Jennifer Kuhn Legislative Analyst’s Office Presented to: CCSESA February 24,

LAO Overview of Governor’s January Budget

LAO Major Components of Governor’s Budget Package  Estimates budget problem at $9.2 billion.  Proposes net $10.1 billion in solutions.  Assumes voters approve November 2012 tax measure.  Proposes $5.4 billion in trigger reductions if measure fails.

LAO Budget-Balancing Actions  $7.2 billion in new revenues.  $4.0 billion in expenditures cuts.  $1.4 billion in other savings.  $2.5 billion offsetting increase in Proposition 98 guarantee.

LAO Proposition 98: Governor’s Basic Budget Plan

LAO Proposition 98 Funding

LAO Five Major Proposals  Backfill one-time actions ($3.0 billion).  Pay down deferrals ($1.8 billion).  Create mandate block grant ($200 million).  Hold harmless: weighted student formula ($90 million).  Do not initiate Transitional Kindergarten program ($224 million savings).

LAO Deferrals Over Time

LAO Proposes to Retire $1.8 Billion in Deferrals

LAO Education Mandates Block Grant  Eliminates about half of K-12 mandates.  Provides $178 million in block grant funding for remaining activities.  Sets district funding rate at $30 per pupil.  Allows LEAs to select between block grant and existing reimbursement process.

LAO Weighted Student Formula  Removes strings associated with 7 currently standalone programs.  Creates weighted student formula.  Phases in formula over 6 years.  Directs SBE to develop new accountability system.

LAO Basic Plan Linked With Tax Measure  Governor estimates his tax measure would raise $6.9 billion initially: $2.2 billion accrued to $4.7 billion attributed to  Impact on Proposition 98: About $900 million increase in About $2.4 billion increase in

LAO LAO Recommendations  If new revenues materialize, use for paying down deferrals in  Create mandate block grant.  Adopt either weighted student formula or a few large block grants.  Do not initiate TK program.

LAO Proposition 98: Governor’s Back-Up Budget Plan

LAO Proposed “Trigger” Reductions

LAO Back-Up Plan: Major Components

LAO Two Concerns With Back-Up Plan  Serious policy concerns with debt service proposal.  Treatment of realignment revenues risky.

LAO Two Approaches to Building Back-Up Plan  Assume midyear cuts if measure fails.  Assume midyear augmentations if measure passes.

LAO LAO Recommendations  Reconsider debt service proposal.  Provide more flex options, effective July 1: Remove additional categorical and mandate requirements. Allow for shorter school year. Eliminate or suspend penalties for exceeding statutory class size caps. Authorize special post-election layoff window.

LAO Programmatic Per-Pupil Funding

LAO Proposition 98: Governor’s Multiyear Payment Plan

LAO Proposition 98: Governor’s Multiyear Payment Plan

LAO Use Governor’s Plan As Starting Point  To increase likelihood plan is consistently implemented: Extend payment period. Spread payments more evenly over period. Designate settle-up funds for mandates or deferrals. Redirect QEIA program savings to other obligations.

LAO Other Major Issues  Preschool funding  Child care reductions  Ballot measures