Strategic Development Plan: Managing for Better Results Presentation by Civil Society Economic Strategic Sector presented by Juvinal Dias Timor-Leste & Development Partners Meeting (TLDPM) Dili Convention Centre, July 2014

TL already exported Timor- Leste TL without Sunrise Aust- ralia Oil and gas reserves per person 510 barrels 800 barrels 310 barrels More than 1,180 barrels Will last for how long at 2012 production rates 14 years5 years More than 58 years

Only South Sudan, Libya (and Equatorial Guinea?) are more dependent on oil and gas exports than Timor-Leste is. Projected state revenues in 2014:…………..……$2,380 million $2,213 million (93%) will be from oil (incl. $770m investment return) $ 166 million ( 7%) will be from non-petroleum sources 2014 State Budget:……………………………………$1,500 million $903 million (60%) will be taken from the Petroleum Fund in $430 million (29%) more is from the Petrol. Fund in the past and future. Non-oil GDP in 2011:..……………………… $1,047 million Petroleum GDP in 2011:…………….……………….$3,478 mill. (77%) Productive (agriculture & manufacturing) GDP ….$ 179 m (4%) and dropping Non-oil balance of goods trade: $535m imports, $16m exports (98% coffee) Petroleum “income” goes to the state, not the people.

Importa Sistema Elétrika Nasionál Import Exports (non-oil) Power plant imports “Imports” of U.S. dollar notes 9 This graph shows legal goods trade only. More than 80% of donor spending and 50% of state spending goes overseas.

The green ‘target’ in the back represents the amount which would have been spent if execution was uniform throughout the year. Million US dollars Transfers Capital & Development Minor Capital Goods & services Salaries & benefits

Total revenue: $1,500 million, of which 89% comes from oil and gas in the past, present and future.

Timor-Leste has problems finding jobs for the 16,000 young people who will achieve working age during In 2024, 28,000 more people will seek work each year, and the oil and gas may be gone. Today’s youth will have children of their own.

What are Oecusse’s competitive advantages? Can ZEESM justify investing $4 billion? Who will benefit: Oecusse residents or political leaders?

IFC is encouraging Timor-Leste to build a port and airport far beyond realistic traffic expectations. How will the country pay for a $6 billion annual trade deficit after the oil is gone? Traffic forecast for Tibar Port

In 2010, TL began the South Coast Petroleum Corridor. During , TL spent $35 million Total project costs could exceed $2 billion (much more if Timor-Leste pays for the refinery, pipeline or LNG plant). The new budget allocates $46m in 2014 and $320m in , but leaves a lot out.

You will find more and updated information at La’o Hamutuk’s website La’o Hamutuk’s blog Timor-Leste Institute for Development Monitoring and Analysis Rua Martires do Patria, Bebora, Dili, Timor-Leste Mailing address: P.O. Box 340, Dili, Timor-Leste Telephone: (mobile) (landline)