Copyright  2005 by Thomson Learning, Inc. Chapter 15 Short-Term Investment Strategy Order Order Sale Payment Sent Cash Placed Received Received Accounts Collection Accounts Collection Time ==> Time ==> Accounts Disbursement Accounts Disbursement Invoice Received Payment Sent Cash Disbursed Invoice Received Payment Sent Cash Disbursed Order Order Sale Payment Sent Cash Placed Received Received Accounts Collection Accounts Collection Time ==> Time ==> Accounts Disbursement Accounts Disbursement Invoice Received Payment Sent Cash Disbursed Invoice Received Payment Sent Cash Disbursed

Copyright  2005 by Thomson Learning, Inc. Objectives v Define an investment policy and indicate what inputs are used to develop the policy. v Describe the cash and securities allocation decision. v Describe the investment decision-making process. v Calculate portfolio return for the purpose of evaluating portfolio performance. v Indicate how a portfolio manager might assess risk and return tradeoffs.

Copyright  2005 by Thomson Learning, Inc. Short-Term Investment Policy v Defines company’s posture toward risk and return and specifies how it is to be implemented v Possible elements include: –minimal acceptable security ratings –allocation percentage constraints –strategy limitations –maturity limits –authorization and approvals –portfolio performance evaluation

Copyright  2005 by Thomson Learning, Inc. Cash and Securities Allocation Decision v Aggregate investment in cash and securities v Cash and securities mix

Copyright  2005 by Thomson Learning, Inc. Investment Decision-Making Process v Outside management –Selecting portfolio manager –Evaluating portfolio performance v Internal portfolio management

Copyright  2005 by Thomson Learning, Inc. Assembling the Portfolio v General risk-return factors –GNP –Industry-specific events –Interest rate trends v Risk factors revisited –Interrelationships among risk types –Uncertainty of risk estimates –Portfolio risk and the risk-return tradeoff –Assessing the risk-return tradeoff v Short-term investment strategies

Copyright  2005 by Thomson Learning, Inc. Short-Term Investment Strategies v Passive strategies –buy-and-hold v Active strategies –historical yield spread analysis –riding the yield curve –dividend capture strategy –maturity extension swap –yield spread swap

Copyright  2005 by Thomson Learning, Inc. Survey Evidence on Strategies v 47% were aggressive v 34% moderate v 17% conservative v 2% passive

Copyright  2005 by Thomson Learning, Inc. Survey Evidence, continued v 74% of aggressive managers had 75% of excess cash invested. v Passive managers only had 50% invested.

Copyright  2005 by Thomson Learning, Inc. Survey Evidence, continued v Aggressive managers ranked rate of return as most important attribute. v Moderate and conservative managers ranked default risk as most important attribute.

Copyright  2005 by Thomson Learning, Inc. Survey Evidence, continued v Aggressive managers used riding the yield curve much more often (30% usage rate) than did moderate (24% usage rate) or conservative (9% usage rate) managers. v Most popular instruments used were Eurodollar certificates first followed by repurchase agreements and commercial paper.

Copyright  2005 by Thomson Learning, Inc. Summary v Begin investment process by considering the cash forecast, the company’s financial position, and the investment policy. v Decide whether or not to use an outside manager. v The chapter concluded with profiles of passive and active investment strategies.

Copyright  2005 by Thomson Learning, Inc. Appendix 15A Cash Management Models

Copyright  2005 by Thomson Learning, Inc. Cash & Securities Mix Decisions v Baumol v Miller-Orr v Stone

Copyright  2005 by Thomson Learning, Inc. Baumol v Company receives funds periodically, but must disburse monies at a continuous steady rate v Cash needs are perfectly anticipated v Cash balances are replenished by a sale of securities v Similar to the EOQ model Time $ Z Z = (2*F*TCN / k) 1/2

Copyright  2005 by Thomson Learning, Inc. Miller-Orr v Assumes cash flow is unpredictable v Permits both upward and downward movements in the cash balance UCL LCL LCL + Z $ Time Z = (3F  2 /4i) 1/3 UCL = 3Z + LCL

Copyright  2005 by Thomson Learning, Inc. Stone v Allows for the cash manager’s knowledge of imminent cash flows to override model directives. v Similar to Miller-Orr in that it has UCL and LCL v...but before a transaction is made, the expected cash balance is compared to the UCL and LCL and a transaction is made ONLY if the EXPECTED cash balance is beyond these trigger points.

Copyright  2005 by Thomson Learning, Inc. Stone, continued U C L L C L T i m e $ I f the daily cash balance hits UCL or LCL then estimate the cash balance in k days. Then, if the expected cash balance in k days is > adjusted UCL buy secs. If < adjusted LCL then sell secs.