Use of Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probabilities in Public and Marine Forecasts: An Update Pablo Santos WFO Miami, FL David Sharp WFO Melbourne, FL NOAA.

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Presentation transcript:

Use of Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probabilities in Public and Marine Forecasts: An Update Pablo Santos WFO Miami, FL David Sharp WFO Melbourne, FL NOAA Hurricane Conference 2009 PS/DS “HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.”

2 Where We Are 2009 – All Eastern and SR Offices participated. Public and Marine Point and Click version of the formatter activated for the said regions. Marine made its debut this year.

Season in Review PWS Procedure yielded incremental probability greater than cumulative in TPC’s PWS product for same period – Training/Procedural issue. A couple of minor Point and Click issue with the implementation of the Marine capability and also upgrades by CIO. Compositing of Probabilities result in wording hanging on to event at the end longer than desired. Question asked often: When do I start using it? Boston: Winter Storms triggering Tropical Storm Conditions Possible. Effect of Lowering Probability Thresholds in the Short Range? – Probabilistic wording closely following wind field.

4 Threat-Score Based Optimal 34 kt Probabilities by Region

5 Threat-Score Based Optimal 64 kt Probabilities by Region

6 Future – 2010 Season Conduct Inland Points Verification

7 Future – 2010 Season Considerations/Recommendations We might need to go back to previous years probabilistic thresholds. In review at the current time. Propose staying experimental one more season given limited experience this year. –But bring in Pacific region formally into the experiment. Southernmost Western Region Offices? What about first tier inland offices? CLEAN UP/SHORTEN (I HEARD YOU) formal training. Provision for proper support for point and click in case something goes wrong. Consider expanding capability to tabular products, specifically, the PFM? Change incremental Wind Speed Probability Data Flow from TPC to WFO from 12 hours to 6 hours. This will entail updating the PWS Procedure in AWIPS. Something to keep in mind: Work from Warning Team might impact this project. Does the Wind Team need to reconvene to make final decisions on these?

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