Maximum Sustainable Yield: A Fiscal Road Map for Alaska University of Alaska Budget Committee Fairbanks, Alaska August 8, 2013 Scott Goldsmith Institute.

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Presentation transcript:

Maximum Sustainable Yield: A Fiscal Road Map for Alaska University of Alaska Budget Committee Fairbanks, Alaska August 8, 2013 Scott Goldsmith Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage With Generous Financial Support From

Alaska Petroleum Revenues: $183 Billion since 1977

GF Appropriations Has Grown to Match Higher Revenues

DOR Projected Petroleum Revenues Fall 2012 (before SB21) – 5% Real Decline Rate

Non Petroleum GF Revenues (per capita)

Non-Petroleum Strategies for the Future? Natural Resource Development Value Added Processing Economic Diversification Infrastructure Investments in Power and Transportation Footloose Industry Renewable Energy

Replace $7.5 Billion in Petroleum Revenue with Taxes on Other Resources $5,000 / TOURIST $10,000 / OZ. GOLD $50 / SALMON *Estimate for FY 2011

Alaska: An Island Economy

Petroleum Wealth in the Bank (Billion $) TOTAL$62 Permanent Fund$44 CBR (Constitutional Budget Reserve) SBR (Statutory Budget Reserve) GF (General Fund) $18

10 Year Fiscal Plan: Judicious Use of Reserves ? $3 $400 million in 2013, $700 million in 2014

A Bridge to Nowhere?

Wellhead Values: Oil vs Gas Tax Base $3.8 $17.2 Oil 500k Gas 3.5 bcf

Limited Petroleum Revenue Potential Production Tax RoyaltyCorporate Income Tax Property Tax STATE LAND Conventional YYYY Conventional Marginal ??YY Unconventional ??YY NPRA Y ½ YY ANWR YNYY OCS NNNN

How Can We Sustain a Healthy Level of Public Services in the Future? MAXIMUM SUSTAINABLE YIELD Management of our biggest asset— Petroleum. 1)How Big is Our Nest Egg? 2)How Should We Manage It? 3)How Should We Spend it?

HOW BIG IS THE NEST EGG? $200,000 for each current resident TOTAL$149 Billion In the Bank$62 Billion In the Ground$87 Billion Known Conventional Oil$65 Billion Other Oil and Gas$22 Billion

HOW SHOULD WE MANAGE THE NEST EGG (Asset, Endowment)? For Maximum Long Run Return

DRAW each year at a rate that will conserve the value of the Nest Egg for future generations of Alaskans—the Maximum Sustainable Yield. HOW MUCH OF THE NEST EGG SHOULD WE SPEND?

Maximum Sustainable Yield: Calculation Nest Egg $149 Billion Investment Return (After Inflation) 5% Population Growth 1% MSY Draw Rate 4% = (5%-1%) MSY Draw $6 Billion = ($149*4%)

NEST EGG Nest Egg Cash Flow Total Maximum Sustainable Yield $7.3 $4.5 $6 Oil & Gas Revenue 4% Draw Maximum Sustainable Yield: Mechanics (2013) Saving & Reinvestment $6 Financial Earnings $5.8

GENERAL FUND MAXIMUM SUSTAINABLE YIELD Total Maximum Sustainable Yield GF Non Petroleum Revenues Permanent Fund Dividend $1 Maximum Sustainable Yield: Disposition (2013) $5 $.5 General Fund $5 $6 $5.5

Maximum Sustainable Yield: Nest Egg Growth

Maximum Sustainable Yield: General Fund Growth

FY 13 & 14 General Fund Spending (Billion $) GF Actual Spend$7.6$6.8 * GF Maximum Sustainable Yield Draw $5.5 GF Over Spend Fiscal Burden & Asset Erosion $2.1$1.3 * Sustainable with income and sales taxes.

MSY Sensitivity to Assumptions

Maximum Sustainable Yield: A Fiscal Road Map for Alaska University of Alaska Budget Committee Fairbanks, Alaska August 8, 2013 Scott Goldsmith Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage With Generous Financial Support From