Macro Developments of Romania “The Tiger of the East” Mariya Kaneva Stilyana Kandjeva April 1 st, 2009.

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Presentation transcript:

Macro Developments of Romania “The Tiger of the East” Mariya Kaneva Stilyana Kandjeva April 1 st, 2009

Overview Of The Economic Situation 1997 – 2000 recession Domestic consumption and investment fueled GDP growth Rise in inflation ( ) Strong GDP growth in 2008 moderated by the financial crisis

Goods Market

Real GDP growth – 8% (2008) GDP per capita - $12,500 (2008) GDP composition by sector: –Agriculture – 8.1% –Industry – 36% –Services – 55.9% FDI inflows – 6% of GDP (2007)

Goods Market Exports: –$59.75 billion f.o.b. (2008 est.) –Commodities: machinery and equipment, textiles and footwear, metals and metal products, machinery and equipment, minerals and fuels, chemicals, agricultural products –Exporting partners: Italy, Germany, France, Turkey, Hungary, UK Imports: –$92.09 billion f.o.b. (2008 est.) –Commodities: machinery and equipment, fuels and minerals, chemicals, textile and products, metals, agricultural products –Import partners: Germany, Italy, Hungary, Russia, France, Turkey, Austria Current account balance: -$28.03 billion (2008 est.)/ 12.6% of estimated GDP

Key Indicators – Forecast Expected contraction of real GDP Current account deficit to narrow sharply

Investment and Saving

Asset Market Disinflation trend – reversed Inflation targeting Raised interest rates Increased credit growth

Labor Market Labor Force – 9.32 million (2008 est) By occupation: agriculture: 29.7% industry: 23.2% services: 47.1% Unemployment rate 3.6% (2008 est.)

Labor Market (cont’d)

Conclusion Romania to seek funding from the EU in 2009 Contraction in Real GDP Recovery of the economy in 2010 Current account deficit to narrow sharply (in 2008, 12.6% of GDP) Romania has potential One challenge – to continue structural reforms and sound fiscal policies after the recession

List of Sources Economic Data. Economist Intelligence Unit. March 11, Economic%20Data Factsheet: Romania. Economist Intelligence Unit. March 11, FactSheet Romania. The World Factbook. March 19, Country Brief 2008: Romania. World Bank. October MANIAEXTN/0,,contentMDK: ~menuPK:287302~pagePK:141137~pi PK:141127~theSitePK:275154,00.html Romanian Macroeconomic Insight. Macroanalitica.com. May Monetary Policy. Central Bank Romania.

Thank you for your attention!