New Directions in Modelling Innovation: applying agent-based methods to socio-technological transitions Jonathan Köhler, Michaela Gigli, Antje Bierwisch, Arne Lüllmann Fraunhofer ISI EU-SPRI Conference 2012 Fraunhofer ISI Karlsruhe th June 2012

Introduction Transition Theory Agent-Based modelling of transitions: the MATISSE pilot model Psychology of behavioural change Niches and regimes: agents, networks, strategies Possible modelling methods What is to be done?

Transition Theory Multi-level perspective on transitions (adapted from Geels, 2002: p. 1263)

Agent-Based modelling of transitions: the MATISSE pilot model:1

Agent-Based modelling of transitions: the MATISSE pilot model:2 Two illustrations of a two-dimensional practices space, with practice axes Px and Py. Left: regime and niches, which can move in the space and interact with each other. Right: the consumer agents showing supporters scattered in the practices space, coloured by the agent they support, red = regime (R), green = niche 1 (N1), blue = niche 2 (N2).

Psychology of behavioural change Heuristic framework model (adapted from Prochnow et al, 2012)

Psychology of behavioural change Levels and theories of behaviour change: electric vehicle adoption. Anable et al. (2011, p.1017)

Niches and regimes: agents, networks, strategies Niches, regimes: Model separately or emergent property from agent interactions? Can they be modelled as networks, using e.g. social network theory? Functioning of niche markets: Firm strategies; strategic managment ideas (as opposed to Strategic Niche Management) Social networks and entrepreneurial activity, network dynamics Integration of product based characteristics and consumer characteristics in Agent Based Models

Possible modelling methods Problems of calibration with large number of parameters: the inverse problem, from overall result in the data, identify plausible ranges of parameters Game theory for agent interactions Neural nets, learning algorithms from Artificial Intelligence

What is to be done? Research question: how to develop an Agent Based Model of sustainability transitions that can investigate how niches arise and grow and under what conditions they lead to a transtion to a new socio-technical regime. current literature on modelling does not address behavioural changes towards sustainability and niche growth processes Possible methods Psychological models for agents (consumers) Social structures of niches and regimes, social network ideas Firms’ behaviours and the dynamics of niche structures on the supply side, Strategic management theory as well as Strategic Niche Management