SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND Economic outlook 2011–2013 Euro & talous (Bank of Finland Bulletin) 5/2011 Governor Erkki Liikanen
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND Marked slowdown in Finnish economic growth
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND Economic recovery stalls
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND Supply and demand * At current prices, EUR billion 2010 * f2012f2013f % change in volume on the previous year GDP180,3-8,23,62,80,41,8 June 2011 forecast3,82,62,4 Change-1,0-2,2-0,6 Imports70,3-16,17,4-0,70,05,6 Exports72,6-21,58,6-3,20,46,0 Private consumption98,5-3,12,73,71,21,4 Public consumption44,30,90,60,10,40,7 Private investment29,3-15,93,96,61,84,8 Public investment4,64,7-3,82,9-0,4-1,7
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND Drop in unemployment comes to a halt
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND No improvement in employment in immediate years ahead
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND Youth unemployment high
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND Labour productivity growth slows
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND Slowing productivity development pushes up unit labour costs
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND Demand outlook weakens
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND Household consumption growth becoming subdued
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND Finnish export growth sluggish
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND Current account surplus melting
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND Inflation slowing gradually
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND Energy and food prices have driven inflation
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND Forecast: Inflation will gradually slow
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND Public finances facing challenges
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND Central government deficit sizeable
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND Public debt will continue to grow without new measures
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND General government adjustment need in terms of the tax ratio
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND Finland’s public finances: Expenditures and tax rates have been set according to faster economic growth than currently envisaged. The public finances will already hit the debt ceiling in the next few years. Public finance sustainability problems are increasing the pressure for structural reforms. The threat of a rapid deterioration in the Finnish economy and budgetary position is real
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND Alternative scenario: debt crisis leads to global recession
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND Alternative scenario: debt crisis leads to global recession
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND Finnish economy would enter a deep recession Real GDP, % change 2,5-2,00,7 Change relative to the forecast -0,3-2,4-1,1 Unemployment rate, % 7,99,010,1 Change relative to the forecast 0,11,12,2 Private consumption deflator, % change 2,60,3-0,3 Change relative to the forecast -0,2-2,2-1,9 General government net lending, % of GDP -1,5-2,8-4,5 Change relative to the forecast -0,2-1,6-3,
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND Financial stability
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND Sovereign debt crisis significantly impairs the functioning of the European financial system
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND An increasing number of euro area banks tighten their lending
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND Strengthening of the European banking system necessary for safeguarding banks’ lending capacity European banking system needs more capital –October 2011 summit decisions on bank recapitalisation High borrowing relative to total assets (high ”leverage”) makes banks vulnerable to wholesale bank runs
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND Finnish banks’ profitability and capital adequacy have remained stable
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND Finnish banks dependent on money and capital markets
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND Stable bank loan growth Euro-denominated MFI loans to euro area non-financial corporations (incl. housing corporations), annual growth of stock