Created by Mr. Barnard People have asked themselves and others this question countless times. We spend an enormous amount of time, energy, and money.

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Presentation transcript:

Created by Mr. Barnard

People have asked themselves and others this question countless times. We spend an enormous amount of time, energy, and money trying to predict: ‘what will happen if…?’

We predict the weather...

We predict the success rate of a new drug:

We predict the success of new herbicides and of new hybrids:

We predict the outcome of an election:

We predict the winner of a sporting event:

How do we predict? LogicLogic Tools in the realms of math and scienceTools in the realms of math and science Past experiences and past eventsPast experiences and past events Common senseCommon sense

But what do we need to be able to predict? DATA!!!

To be able to make an accurate prediction, we need information collected called data. The more data one has, the more accurate of a prediction that can be made.

Calculus is the math of change. We make predictions based on the changes in data over time. Therefore, we are going to predict the...

FUTURE POPULATIONS OF COMMUNITIES IN NEBRASKA

Data helps us create models which can be used to predict what will happen next. We try to find mathematical models (equations) that best fit the data.

How do we know which mathematical model to use? For one, it depends on the shape of the data when it is plotted on a graph.

Mathematical Models (Equations) Linear (x...) Quadratic (x 2...)

Mathematical Models (Equations) Cubic (x 3...) Quartic (x 4...)

Mathematical Models (Equations) Logarithmic (ln(x)...) Exponential (n x )

Mathematical Models (Equations) Power (x n ) (Graph varies depending on the value of n)

Secondly, there are various statistical analysis items that can be done with the data to determine which model is the best predictor.

Correlation Coefficient (‘r’) The closer ‘r’ is to -1 (negative correlation) or to 1 (positive correlation), the stronger the relationship between time and population (thus the better the predictor).

Coefficient of Determination (‘r 2 ’) The closer ‘r 2 ’ is to 1, the stronger the relationship between time and population (thus the better the predictor).

Our task is to select two Nebraska incorporated communities, predict their future populations based on data using technology, and present our findings.

You will not be using your crystal ball......rather you will use the information presented and some upcoming guidelines for you to follow!!!

Enjoy looking into the future!!!