Seminar on Marine Mineral Resources of the South and Equatorial Atlantic Ocean Clayton de Souza Pontes Ministry of Mines and Energy Secretariat of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Renewable Fuels November 28, 2008 Brazilian Potential for Oil and Gas

Ministério de Minas e Energia Summary  Introduction  Methodology  Multivariable Area Relevance Function (FIMA)  Petroliferous Area Relevance (IPA)  Conclusions

Ministério de Minas e Energia Introduction  Objective  To set up an updated database, with mapped zones, containing the relative economical relevance of different regions in Brazil, concerning the oil and gas sector  Importance  Territorial ordination programs  Sedimentary basins relevance for oil industry activities (upstream and downstream)  Planning block offers at bid rounds  Redirect Agency resources to the study of sedimentary basins  Annual revision, based on updated information

Ministério de Minas e Energia Development Team  MME/SPG-EPE Agreement: National Zoning of Oil and Gas Resources  Team MME/SPG  João José de Nora Souto - Secretário-Adjunto de Petróleo, Gás Natural e Combustíveis Renováveis  José Botelho Neto - Diretor de Política de Exploração e Produção de Petróleo e Gás Natural  Clayton de Souza Pontes - Coordenador-Geral  Antônio Henrique Godoy Ramos - Gestor  Team EPE  Ricardo Nascimento e Silva do Valle - Superintendente de Petróleo  Reneu Rodrigues da Silva - coordenação técnica  Claudio Bettini  Norival Brisola  Saulo Pedrinha Guimarães  Jefferson Acioli Machado  Regina Freitas Fernandes  Gildo Gabriel da Costa  Marcos Frederico Souza  Aldeir Dias Bernardo

Ministério de Minas e Energia O&G Industry in Brazil

Ministério de Minas e Energia Methodology  Database  Exploration and production  Prepared to support a first mapping relevance of areas concerning upstream activities  Downstream  Data from the infrastructure of oil & gas downstream industry  Reference date: April, 2007

Ministério de Minas e Energia Data Collection: new E&P resources  Common knowledge  ANP site  Classified information  ANP sheets  Data from oil and gas fields  Recent petroleum discoveries from areas under evaluation

Ministério de Minas e Energia Data Collection: undiscovered E&P resources  Strategy 1: geological approach using plays  Strategy 2: engage university support:  GORCEIX Foundation  Northern basins  COPPETEC Foundation  Eastern basins  FUNDUNESP Foundation  Southern basins  Strategy 3: focus on acquired knowledge about the areas, avoiding new geological interpretation

Ministério de Minas e Energia Data Processing  Attributes definition:  Mappable  Relevant (to the relevance function)  Complementary (with relevance for the O&G sector)  Three data sets for analysis  Areas with undiscovered resourses or potential (1)  Area with discovered resources (2)  Areas with infrastructure (3)

Ministério de Minas e Energia Database Processing  The attributes defined for the database were inserted into a geographical information system, becoming a set of georeferenced tables which can be visualized as a map

Ministério de Minas e Energia E&P Database Tables  Effective basins  Effective Basin Area (sq km): Sedimentary basin subset with real chances for petroleum or natural gas accumulations. Can also be defined as the geographical union of their effective plays  Absolute Prospectivity (sq km): Prospective area with a regional geologic risk, representing the total area of the prospects weighted by the related subplay chances  Relative Prospectivity (%): Ratio between the Absolute Prospectivity and the Effective Area

Ministério de Minas e Energia E&P Database Tables  Sedimentary basins and geographical position

Ministério de Minas e Energia E&P Database Tables  Effective basins (#32):

Ministério de Minas e Energia E&P Database Tables  Effective Plays (#96):  Play chance degree  Main exploratory condition  Established  Immature  New frontier

Ministério de Minas e Energia E&P Database Maps

Ministério de Minas e Energia E&P Database Tables  Reservoir attributes for each effective play table:  Segment depth  Lithostratigraphic unit  Lithology  Chronostratigraphic unit  Reservoir chance degree factor

Ministério de Minas e Energia E&P Database Tables  Charge attributes for each effective play table:  Source rock lithostratigraphic unit  Source rock chronostratigraphic unit  Charge chance degree factor

Ministério de Minas e Energia E&P Database Tables  Trap attributes for each effective play table:  Cap rock lithostratigraphic unit  Cap rock lithology  Cap rock chronostratigraphic unit  Trap types  Trap chance degree factor

Ministério de Minas e Energia E&P Database Tables  Main fluid type attributes for each effective play table:  Natural gas chance factor in case of hydrocarbon discovery  Light to medium petroleum chance factor in case of hydrocarbon discovery  Light petroleum chance factor in case of light to medium petroleum discovery  Expected main fluid type

Ministério de Minas e Energia E&P Database Tables  Effective basins fluid table:

Ministério de Minas e Energia E&P Database Maps

Ministério de Minas e Energia E&P Database Tables  Prospects for each effective play table:  Area (sq km)  Visibility:  Identified  Indicated  Conceptual  Possible localization

Ministério de Minas e Energia E&P Database Tables  Exploratory Blocks: Localization  Wells: Localization and results  Oil and natural gas fields:  Name  Localization  Main fluid Type  Exploration project stage  Evaluation  Development  Production

Ministério de Minas e Energia Multivariable Area Relevance Function ( Função de Importância Multiargumentos de Área - FIMA )

Ministério de Minas e Energia Function Construction (FIMA)  General concept:  It is a function to be applied over each studied element area in order to define its relevance (IPA) for the petroleum and natural gas sector  IPA = FIMA (AREA)

Ministério de Minas e Energia FIMA’s Variable Selection  Six variables were chosen based on E&P information, which were applied over the three types of areas defined for the work with their degree of relevance for the oil and natural gas sector AREA_1: area without any petroleum discoveries 1. Hydrocarbon direct evidence; 2. Relative prospectivity (*); 3. Lack of knowledge; and 4. Exploration activities AREA_2: area with petroleum discoveries 5. Production activities AREA_3: area with downstream infrastructure 6. Downstream infrastructure (*) Higher prospectivity for higher values, classified from 1 to 9

Ministério de Minas e Energia FIMA: Variables Standardization  The relevance of the basin area was classified from 1 to 9 according to the distance from the main information  Where:  xy : size of the application area (pixel of 1 sq km)  A i ( xy ): standard value for the arguments in the xy position  P i : relative weight for the argument, considering  For this work the weight was 17% for all arguments

Ministério de Minas e Energia Hydrocarbon direct evidence - Relative distance to the closest well in the basin which has confirmed the existence of hydrocarbons IPA: Hydrocarbon Direct Evidence

Ministério de Minas e Energia Relative prospectivity -Area of the effective basin with possibility to have any field discoveries IPA: Relative Prospectivity

Ministério de Minas e Energia IPA: Lack of Knowledge  Lack of knowledge  Match between the chance degree and the exploratory stage of each play (from 1 to 9 according to the degree of knowledge)  The result means the uncertainty of the behavior for the regional geological factors related to the O&G accumulations  The higher values for this argument shows the least studied areas in the basins.  Areas out of the effective basin got the value 1

Ministério de Minas e Energia IPA: Lack of Knowledge

Ministério de Minas e Energia Exploration activities - Relative distance to the closest exploration block polygon in the basin IPA: Exploration Activities

Ministério de Minas e Energia Production activities -Relative distance to the closest O&G field polygon in the basin IPA: Production Activities

Ministério de Minas e Energia Downstream infrastruture - Distance to the center of the closest downstream facility. For places outside the sedimentary area the range of 5 km was attributed for existent facilities and 20 km to the planned ones IPA: Downstream Infrastructure

Ministério de Minas e Energia Petroliferous Relevance Areas Importância Petrolífera das Áreas ( IPA )

Ministério de Minas e Energia Total IPA (equally weighted)

Ministério de Minas e Energia Conclusions  In this project a georeferenced database was built, with hundreds of mappable attributes, of which some are original, related to the oil and gas sector relevance of any area in the country  The results are unpublished and specially important for the Ministry of Mines and Energy  It can be improved in other projects with additional information and interpretation  It can be used to support Exploration and Production policies related to the National Energy Plan

Ministério de Minas e Energia Conclusions  The final map (IPA) from this project allows evaluating the relevance of places greater than 1 sq km for the O&G sector up to the range of 200 miles from the shore line  The final map of IPA also shows that most of the country area has some relevance for the O&G sector. Exceptions are some basement areas without infrastructure and sedimentary basins with no potential for oil and gas  The basins with higher degree of E&P activities, like most of the offshore basins, are pointed in the maps with higher relevance, as expected

Ministério de Minas e Energia Conclusions  Maps updating  The dynamics of the O&G sector turns the updating of the database mandatory, in order to keep the maps reliable