Alee Lynch-Gunderson, PhD Student Dr. Pete Villarreal III, Faculty University of Florida School of Human Development and Organizational Studies Higher Education Administration Selection Bias in Educational Debt Decisions: Analyzing the Impacts on Enrollment in Master’s Degree Programs

Selected Citations Millett (2003) “How Undergraduate Loan Debt Affects Application and Enrollment in Graduate or First Professional School” Purpose: Effects of debts on students who are most likely prospects for entering graduate and professional school Methodology: Logistic regressions Sample: Recent bachelor’s degree recipients who expect to earn a doctoral degree (1,982 cases) Dataset: Baccalaureate and Beyond: 93/97 Key Limitation: Dataset did not distinguish types of financial support

Selected Citations Malcolm & Dowd (forthcoming) “College Student Debt as Opportunity or Disadvantage? A Reconceptualization and Application to STEM Graduate Enrollment” Purpose: Effect of debt on graduate school attendance of STEM majors Methodology: Propensity Score Matching Sample: STEM Bachelor’s recipients from & (7,700 cases) Dataset: 2003 National Survey of Recent College Graduates, College Board Annual Survey of Colleges and Universities, Institute for College Access and Success, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System, & Barron’s Profiles of American Colleges Key Limitation: Exclusion of other master’s degree programs

Selected Citations Perna (2004) “Understanding the Decision to Enroll in Graduate School: Sex and Racial/Ethnic Group Differences” Purposes: Contribute to understanding of underrepresentation of women, African Americans, and Hispanics among doctoral and professional degree enrollees Test a conceptual model for graduate school enrollment Method: Multinomial logit models Sample: Bachelor’s degree recipients in (9,241 cases) Dataset: Baccalaureate and Beyond: 93/97 Key Limitation: Did not control for self-selection bias

Perna’s Enrollment Decision Conceptual Model Sex Male Female Race/Ethnicity Asian Black Hispanic White other Expected Costs & Benefits Net price Foregone earnings by undergraduate major Time horizon (delayed college) Marital Status Parental Status Financial & Academic Resources Undergraduate Educational Debt Dependency status Time to Bachelor’s Degree Cumulative Undergraduate GPA SAT/ACT quartile Cultural & Social Capital Parental educational attainment Primary language at home is English Values additional education (B&B 11- item) Parental monetary contribution Carnegie classification Tuition Location Attended two-year college

Cultural & Social Capital Parental educational attainment Primary language at home is English Values additional education (B&B 11-item) Parental monetary contribution Carnegie classification Tuition Location Attended two-year college

Perna’s Enrollment Decision Conceptual Model Sex Male Female Race/Ethnicity Asian Black Hispanic White other Expected Costs & Benefits Net price Foregone earnings by undergraduate major Time horizon (delayed college) Marital Status Parental Status Financial & Academic Resources Undergraduate Educational Debt Dependency status Wen bachelor’s received Cumulative Undergraduate GPA SAT/ACT quartile Cultural & Social Capital Parental educational attainment Primary language at home is English Values additional education (B&B 11- item) Parental monetary contribution Carnegie classification Tuition Location Attended two-year college

Expected Costs & Benefits Net price Foregone earnings by undergraduate major Time horizon (delayed college) Marital Status Parental Status

Perna’s Enrollment Decision Conceptual Model Sex Male Female Race/Ethnicity Asian Black Hispanic White other Expected Costs & Benefits Net price Foregone earnings by undergraduate major Time horizon (delayed college) Marital Status Parental Status Financial & Academic Resources Undergraduate Educational Debt Dependency status Wen bachelor’s received Cumulative Undergraduate GPA SAT/ACT quartile Cultural & Social Capital Parental educational attainment Primary language at home is English Values additional education (B&B 11- item) Parental monetary contribution Carnegie classification Tuition Location Attended two-year college

Financial & Academic Resources Undergraduate Educational Debt Dependency status Time to Bachelor’s Degree Cumulative Undergraduate GPA SAT/ACT quartile

Modified Enrollment Decision Conceptual Model Student Characteristics Sex Race/Ethnicity Expected Costs & Benefits Net price Foregone earnings by undergraduate major Time horizon (delayed college) Marital Status Parental Status Financial Resources Undergraduate Educational Debt Dependency status Type of Assistantship Academic Resources Time to Bachelor’s Degree Cumulative Undergraduate GPA SAT/ACT quartile Cultural & Social Capital Parental educational attainment Primary language at home is English Values additional education (B&B 11- item) Parental monetary contribution Carnegie classification Tuition Location Attended two-year college Parent’s have a mortgage Location of employment

Financial Resources Undergraduate Educational Debt Dependency status Type of Assistantship

Academic Resources Time to Bachelor’s Degree Cumulative Undergraduate GPA SAT/ACT quartile

Cultural & Social Capital Parental educational attainment Primary language at home is English Values additional education (B&B 11-item) Parental monetary contribution Carnegie classification Tuition Location Attended two-year college Parent’s have a mortgage Location of employment

Research Study How does the likelihood of master’s program enrollment vary by level of undergraduate educational debt? Contributions to Current Body of Research Utilize propensity score methods to control for self- selection bias Control for differing effects between types of financial support National dataset includes students from all master’s degree program areas Dataset: National Postsecondary Student Aid Study 2008

What’s Next? January – Submission for an AIR Research Grant January to May – Conduct analyses May – Submission for research presentation at ASHE December – Submit to journal for publication