National and State Trends for Natural Gas and Electricity Prices Talina R. Mathews Department for Energy Development and Independence.

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Presentation transcript:

National and State Trends for Natural Gas and Electricity Prices Talina R. Mathews Department for Energy Development and Independence

Electricity EIA forecasts that the average retail price of electricity across the US (adjusted for inflation) will remain nearly constant through 2035 There are key uncertainties when extrapolating this forecast to KY average retail electricity rates Age of plants Portfolio mix Environmental regulations (even without GHG discussion)

US Electric Power Industry Net Generation, 2009

8 8 EPA actions will dramatically impact the future viability of coal generation Ozone PM 2.5 '08'09'10 '11'12'13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Beginning CAIR Phase I Seasonal NOx Cap HAPs MACT proposed rule Beginning CAIR Phase II Seasonal NOx Cap Revised Ozone NAAQS Begin CAIR Phase I Annual SO 2 Cap Beginning CAIR Phase II Annual SO 2 & NOx Caps Next PM- 2.5 NAAQS Revision Next Ozone NAAQS Revision SO 2 Primary NAAQS SO 2 /NO 2 Secondary NAAQS NO 2 Primary NAAQS SO 2 /NO 2 New PM-2.5 NAAQS Designations CAMR & Delisting Rule vacated Hg/HAPS Final EPA Nonattainment Designations PM-2.5 SIPs due (‘06) Proposed Transport Rule HAPS MACT final rule expected CAIR Vacated HAPS MACT Compliance 3 yrs after final rule CAIR Remanded CAIR Begin CAIR Phase I Annual NOx Cap PM-2.5 SIPs due (‘97) 316(b) proposed rule expected 316(b) final rule expected 316(b) Compliance 3-4 yrs after final rule Effluent Guidelines proposed rule expected Water Effluent Guidelines Final rule expected Effluent Guidelines Compliance 3-5 yrs after final rule Begin Compliance Requirements under Final CCR Rule (ground water monitoring, double monitors, closure, dry ash conversion) Ash Proposed Rule for CCRs Management Final Rule for CCRs Mgmt Final Transport Rule Expected Compliance with Transport Rule CO 2 CO 2 Regulation Reconsidered Ozone NAAQS Source: EPA/EEI/AEP

Natural Gas EIA estimates are decrease in price then slow rise in natural gas price in residential sector through 2035 Key uncertainties – How much will there be an increase in demand for natural gas generation of electricity because of increased environmental regulation of coal fired power plants? – Will the shale gas resource development be reduced by increased regulations?

SHALE GAS RESOURCES

Conclusion Price trends at the state level for electricity and natural gas are not easily predicted due to massive uncertainties.