State of Play: Economic update for the tourism industry November 2014 Dominick Stephens Chief Economist

Tourism spending index – 2014 has been a good year Page 2

Growth in visitor spending, year to June 2014 Page 3

Westpac’s global growth forecast Page 4

GDP growth in visitor source countries Page 5 Average (forecast) 2015 (forecast) Australia China US UK Euro area Japan

Exchange rate forecasts

Fonterra dairy payout

Last year’s dairy windfall didn’t cause a spending spree

Quake-related construction (in 2012 dollars) Page 9

People per house Page 10

Inflation forecasts

Westpac OCR forecast Page 12

House prices and consumer spending

New Zealand GDP growth

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