A Conditionally Parametric Probit Model of Micro-Data Land Use in Chicago Daniel McMillen Maria Soppelsa

Overview Residential v. Commercial/Industrial Land Use in Chicago, 2010 A conditionally parametric (CPAR) approach produces smooth estimates over space Target points chosen using an adaptive decision tree approach (Loader, 1999) Interpolation from 182 target points to all 583,063 individual parcels in the data set

Estimation Procedures Case (1992). Special From for W McMillen (1992). EM Algorithm Pinkse and Slade (1998). GMM for spatial error model. LeSage (2000). Bayesian approach Klier and McMillen (2007). Linearized version of GMM probit/logit for spatial AR model.

GMM Probit

Linearized GMM Probit

CPAR Probit

Spatial AR v. LWR

Data Individual parcels in Chicago, 2010 Major Classes: 1.Vacant Land (33,139) 2.Residential, 6 units or fewer (728,541, 539,975 after geocoding) 3.Multi-Family Residential (11,529) 4.Non-Profit (316) 5.Commercial and Industrial (50,508, 43,088 after geocoding) 6.“Incentive Classes” (1,487)

Explanatory Variables Distance from parcel centroid to: 1.CBD 2.Lake Michigan 3.EL line 4.EL stop 5.Rail line 6.Major street 7.Park 8.Highway

Rogers Park

Descriptive Statistics VariableMeanStd. Dev.MinMax Residential Lot Distance from CBD Distance from Lake Michigan Distance from EL Line Distance from EL Stop Distance from Rail Line Distance from Major Street Distance from Park Distance from Highway

Probit Models, Probability Residential Standard ProbitCPAR Probit VariableCoef.Std. ErrorMeanStd. Dev. Intercept Distance from CBD Distance from Lake Michigan Distance from EL Line Distance from EL Stop Distance from Rail Line Distance from Major Street Distance from Park Distance from Highway Log-likelihood Pseudo-R

Probability of Residential Land Use: Standard Probit

Probability of Residential Land Use: CPAR Probit, 10% Window Size

Difference, CPAR Probability – Standard Probit Probability

Kernel Density Estimates for CPAR Coefficients

LWR Estimates of CPAR Coefficients

Marginal Probabilities

Rogers Park

Rogers Park, n = 3,193 StandardGMMCPAR CoefStd. Err.CoefStd. Err.MeanStd. dev. Intercept CBD Lake Michigan EL Line EL Stop Rail Line Major Street Park Highway Metra Stop ρ pseudo-R

Correlations, Predicted Probabilities StandardGMMCPAR Standard GMM0.571 CPAR

Standard Probit Probabilities

CPAR Probit Probabilities

Standard Probit: Southwest

CPAR – Standard: Southwest

Standard Probit: Southeast

CPAR – Standard: Southeast

Standard Probit: Northwest

CPAR – Standard: Northwest

Standard Probit: Northeast

CPAR – Standard: Southeast