Competitive Analysis “Let The Market Speak” Presented by: Robert M. Lefenfeld Principal, Real Property Research Group, Inc.

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Presentation transcript:

Competitive Analysis “Let The Market Speak” Presented by: Robert M. Lefenfeld Principal, Real Property Research Group, Inc.

I.Define Market Area Be realistic. Not too expansive. Senior will have broader geographic draw. Be suspicious of radii and county markets.

II.Demographic Analysis 1.Family Communities Past and Current Household Growth. Housing Quality make up for lack of HH Growth. 2.Senior Communities. Senior HH 62+, 70+. Income Qualified Households.

Maryland Population Pyramid Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from Census

Change in Households by Age of Household Head for Maryland, Source: The Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services

Maryland Population Pyramid Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from Census Bob Lefenfeld:

Change in Households by Age of Household Head for Maryland, Source: The Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services

Maryland Population Pyramid Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from Census

Change in Households by Age of Household Head for Maryland, Source: The Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services

III.Rental Analysis 1.Look at Entire Market. Weakness in other segments can effect affordable housing. What products are offering concessions. Will concessions burn off in short term?

Net Price Position in Market

Occupancy Levels/ Concessions Reason for concessions. Market overbuilt overall. Too much product at one position. Adjustment for overreaching in rents.

IV. Pipeline Check with Planning Department. Check with Housing Finance Agency. Talk with developers to quantify delivery and price position. Need to understand how market will evolve.

V. Family Communities Rarely oversupply for 50% units. Issue is getting family project approved by community. Bond deals offering significant amenity package. Mixed Income are doable if products compatible.

VI. Senior Communities Evolution of Senior Product Efficiencies to one bedroom to two bedroom. One bedroom units in urban markets where affordability overriding criteria. Seniors generally command premium over family units.

Senior Communities Senior Communities In small markets, careful about introduction of 2 nd or 3 rd senior deal. In dense urban markets, demand is deeper than seen in affordability. More developed product in Northeast than Southeast.

VII. Preservation / Infill Projects Exciting opportunity to reinvest in existing neighborhoods. Is proposed scope of work enough to extend life of project? Are underwritten rents realistic without housing subsidy? HOPE VI can work to turn an area.

VIII.Current Markets Mid Atlantic continues to be strong. Southeast cities somewhat overbuilt. Downtown investment strong. Second tier markets ignored in 1990’s getting attention.