JSW World Bank1 Trade Facilitation And Economic Development Development Research Group The World Bank John S. Wilson

JSW World Bank2 Bank Trade Logistics Agenda Policy relevant research and diagnostics –New analysis and data Bank operations –Review and support Strengthen partnerships – GFP

JSW World Bank3 Overview Trade Facilitation – More than Transport Security and Trade - Potential Win-Win Framework for Capacity Building Needed

JSW World Bank4 Trade Facilitation: What Impact? Bank research – Wilson, Mann, Otsuki 2003 New dataset – 19 APEC members Econometric approach – gravity model

JSW World Bank5 Four Indicators of Trade Facilitation 1. Port Efficiency 2. Customs Environment 3.Domestic Regulatory Environment 4. E-business usage Survey Data: World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Report (GCR) IMD Lausanne, World Competitiveness Yearbook (WCY) Micco, Ximena and Dollar (2001), Maritime Transport Costs and Port Efficiency, World Bank Group (MXD). Transparency International

JSW World Bank6 Raising Capacity Half-Way to APEC Average

JSW World Bank7 Policy Relevance and Next Steps Inform capacity building priorities – Collective action and unilateral New research – World Bank GEP 2004 –Analysis expanded to 75 countries –Revised data input

JSW World Bank8 Terrorism and Trade: Economic Impact? Doubling of terrorist incidents led to a 6% decrease in bilateral trade between targeted economies (Nitsch and Schumacher, 2002). Security promotes investment and growth in developing economies Poirson (1998). Private investment rose 0.5 to 1 percent of GDP in countries that adopted security measures in ‘best practice’ regions. Economic growth rose by 0.5 to 1.25 percent per year. World welfare declines by $75 billion – 1% increase in trade costs (Walkenhorst and Dihel 2002).

JSW World Bank9 Security Considerations…. Necessary to ensure that less developed countries are not excluded from benefits of new security programs. Potential win-win situation - higher costs can be recovered through greater efficiencies in the supply chain and increased exports. Need coordinated multilateral plan.

JSW World Bank10 Impact of WTO Rules? New analysis in Wilson, Otsuki, Mann to include estimates of potential gains. Trade system limited impact. Main engine of economic growth – long- term development strategy.

JSW World Bank11 Conclusions….. Trade facilitation. –More than transport. –Development context central role. Policy decisions demand new data and indicators to ensure sound policy decisions.

JSW World Bank12 Thank You John S. Wilson Lead Economist Development Research Group International Trade The World Bank