E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A Watching, Photographing, and Listening: Monitoring Phenology to Detect the Effects of Climate Change Brian R. Mitchell, NETN Program Manager River Monitoring and Climate Change in Massachusetts Leominster, MA May 18, 2011 National Park Service U.S. Department of the Interior Northeast Temperate Network

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A Outline Background Background Goals & Objectives Goals & Objectives Timeline Timeline Collaboration Collaboration Habitats, species, and phenophases Habitats, species, and phenophases Methods Methods Observation Observation Photographic Photographic Acoustic Acoustic Integration Integration Conclusions Conclusions Photo by Kendal Brown Red-eyed Vireo

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A Background NPS Natural Resource Challenge NPS Natural Resource Challenge Inventory and Monitoring Networks Inventory and Monitoring Networks Vital Signs Vital Signs Northeast Temperate Network Northeast Temperate Network 13 park units 13 park units 24 vital signs including: 24 vital signs including: Phenology Phenology Climate Climate Water quantity & quality Water quantity & quality Stream macroinvertebrates Stream macroinvertebrates Estuarine water quality Estuarine water quality Wetland vegetation Wetland vegetation

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A Background What is phenology? What is phenology? Recurring plant and animal life cycle stages, like flowering, leaf fall, migration, and hibernation Recurring plant and animal life cycle stages, like flowering, leaf fall, migration, and hibernation Ice-out and other physical processes are NOT phenology Ice-out and other physical processes are NOT phenology

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A Background Why are most people unfamiliar with phenology? Why are most people unfamiliar with phenology? Long tradition of use for agriculture Long tradition of use for agriculture Viewed as static over most of recorded history Viewed as static over most of recorded history

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A Background Why does phenology matter? Why does phenology matter? Local expression of global change Local expression of global change Phenological mismatch Phenological mismatch Migration feeding Migration feeding Breeding resources Breeding resources Invasion dynamics of pest species Invasion dynamics of pest species Affects long-term data sets Affects long-term data sets Miller-Rushing et al American Journal of Botany “Phenology… is perhaps the simplest process in which to track changes in the ecology of species in response to climate change.” - IPCC 2007

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A Background Monitoring phenology Monitoring phenology Helps us understand effects of climate change Helps us understand effects of climate change Provides data needed for climate change adaptation Provides data needed for climate change adaptation Educates and involves the public Educates and involves the public

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A Goals Determine trend in phenology of key species, to assist resource managers with the detection and mitigation of the effects of climate change on natural resources Determine trend in phenology of key species, to assist resource managers with the detection and mitigation of the effects of climate change on natural resources Interest and educate visitors and volunteers Interest and educate visitors and volunteers

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A Objectives Maintain list of key species of science or management interest Maintain list of key species of science or management interest Foundation species Foundation species Invasive species Invasive species Vulnerable to mismatch Vulnerable to mismatch Early spring phenophases Early spring phenophases Special interest Special interest Detect change in pheno- phase timing or abundance Detect change in pheno- phase timing or abundance Correlate phenology with climate data Correlate phenology with climate data

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A Timeline – 2007 and 2008 Appalachian Trail Phenology Appalachian Trail Phenology Initiated 2007 Initiated 2007 Elevation and latitudinal transects Elevation and latitudinal transects Monitor focal taxa and habitats, especially at edges of ranges Monitor focal taxa and habitats, especially at edges of ranges Track trends in invasive species Track trends in invasive species Compare to historical record Compare to historical record Strong volunteer component Strong volunteer component Draw on methods from European phenology networks, GLOBE, and Long-Term Ecological Research programs Draw on methods from European phenology networks, GLOBE, and Long-Term Ecological Research programs

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A Timeline – 2009 Then a funny thing happened… Then a funny thing happened… Abe Miller-Rushing and USA- NPN Abe Miller-Rushing and USA- NPN Discussions about wildlife phenology Discussions about wildlife phenology Multi-method approach takes shape Multi-method approach takes shape Agreed to work together to develop plant and animal monitoring methods Agreed to work together to develop plant and animal monitoring methods Outreach to Appalachian Mountain Club and others Outreach to Appalachian Mountain Club and others

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A Timeline – 2009 Pilot observational monitoring Pilot observational monitoring Acadia NP Acadia NP Appalachian NST Appalachian NST Boston Harbor Islands NRA Boston Harbor Islands NRA USGS Status and Trends proposal USGS Status and Trends proposal PhenoCam (Richardson) PhenoCam (Richardson) University of Vermont (Donovan) University of Vermont (Donovan) Paperwork Reduction Act rabbit hole Paperwork Reduction Act rabbit hole Affects casual observers Affects casual observers

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A Timeline – 2010 Additional funding arrives Additional funding arrives USGS S&T funding USGS S&T funding NPS Northeast Region NPS Northeast Region Extra NETN support Extra NETN support Field work and protocol development Field work and protocol development Acoustic monitoring Acoustic monitoring Observational monitoring Observational monitoring Northeast Regional Phenology Network meeting Northeast Regional Phenology Network meeting Regional goals and objectives Regional goals and objectives Habitat-based working groups Habitat-based working groups

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A Timeline – 2011 and 2012 Continue collaborations Continue collaborations USA-NPN USA-NPN NE-RPN NE-RPN California Phenology Project California Phenology Project Continue field work Continue field work Observational monitoring Observational monitoring Integration with automated methods Integration with automated methods Complete monitoring protocol Complete monitoring protocol Observational procedures linked to USA-NPN Observational procedures linked to USA-NPN Acoustic and photo methods in progress Acoustic and photo methods in progress

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A Collaboration – NE-RPN Collaborate on long-term phenology monitoring and education in the Northeast Collaborate on long-term phenology monitoring and education in the Northeast Understand the local and regional effects of climate change Understand the local and regional effects of climate change Motivate citizens to make a positive impact Motivate citizens to make a positive impact Protect natural resources Protect natural resources

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A Collaboration – NE-RPN Promote collaboration Promote collaboration Regionally and nationally Regionally and nationally Share methods and results Share methods and results Encourage citizen science Encourage citizen science Cooperate to train observers Cooperate to train observers Secure funding Secure funding Evaluate efficacy Evaluate efficacy

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A Habitats Core Habitats Core Habitats Hardwood Forest Hardwood Forest Vernal Pool Vernal Pool Additional Habitats (1 – 3 parks each) Additional Habitats (1 – 3 parks each) Freshwater Wetland Freshwater Wetland Grassland Grassland Rocky Coast Rocky Coast Salt Marsh Salt Marsh Alpine and Subalpine Alpine and Subalpine Spruce / Fir Forest Spruce / Fir Forest

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A Species Hardwood Forest Hardwood Forest Red Maple Red Maple Sugar Maple Sugar Maple White Wood Aster White Wood Aster Garlic Mustard Garlic Mustard Eastern Tent Caterpillar Eastern Tent Caterpillar Ovenbird Ovenbird Vernal Pool Vernal Pool Spotted Salamander Spotted Salamander Spring Peeper Spring Peeper Wood Frog Wood Frog Photo by Jack Dermid

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A Species Freshwater Wetland Freshwater Wetland Red Maple Red Maple Purple Loosestrife Purple Loosestrife Marsh Marigold Marsh Marigold Wood Frog Wood Frog Great Blue Heron Great Blue Heron Grassland Grassland Rough-stemmed Goldenrod Rough-stemmed Goldenrod Common Milkweed Common Milkweed Monarch Butterfly Monarch Butterfly Red-winged Blackbird Red-winged Blackbird Bobolink Bobolink Rocky Coast Rocky Coast Beach Rose Beach Rose Rockweed Rockweed Green Crab Green Crab Common Loon Common Loon Common Eider Common Eider Salt Marsh Salt Marsh Sea Lavender Sea Lavender Seaside Goldenrod Seaside Goldenrod Black Rush Black Rush Great Blue Heron Great Blue Heron American Black Duck American Black Duck

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A Species Lakes Lakes Spatterdock Spatterdock Mayfly Mayfly Common Loon Common Loon Great Blue Heron Great Blue Heron Tree Swallow Tree Swallow Beach/Dune Beach/Dune Beach Pea Beach Pea Beach Rose Beach Rose Horseshoe Crab Horseshoe Crab Common Tern Common Tern Willet Willet Urban/Suburban Urban/Suburban Common Dandelion Common Dandelion Common Lilac Common Lilac Red Maple Red Maple Spring Peeper Spring Peeper American Robin American Robin Rivers/Streams? Rivers/Streams? Macroalgae? Macroalgae? Brook Trout? Brook Trout? Dragonfly? Dragonfly? Common Merganser? Common Merganser?

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A Phenophases Subset from USA-NPN Subset from USA-NPN Base on questions Base on questions Supplement with species- specific photographic guides Supplement with species- specific photographic guides Currently developing NETN phenophase lists Currently developing NETN phenophase lists Casual observers Casual observers Staff and volunteers Staff and volunteers Automated recorders Automated recorders 1 All

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A Phenophases Animal phenophases vary by species Animal phenophases vary by species Spotted Salamander Spotted Salamander Egg masses Egg masses Spring peeper Spring peeper Vocalizations Vocalizations Wood frog Wood frog Adults, vocalizations, and egg masses Adults, vocalizations, and egg masses Wood frog egg mass

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A Methods – Observation Vision Vision Casual visitors fill out log forms Casual visitors fill out log forms Status Status Methods drafted and ready for testing Methods drafted and ready for testing Awaiting Interior and OMB approval Awaiting Interior and OMB approval Challenges Challenges Recruiting participants Recruiting participants Maintaining sites and entering data Maintaining sites and entering data Data quality Data quality

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A Methods – Observation Vision Vision Staff or volunteers collect data throughout season Staff or volunteers collect data throughout season Status Status Methods drafted and piloted Methods drafted and piloted Currently used in 5 parks Currently used in 5 parks Challenges Challenges Recruiting participants Recruiting participants Getting sufficient site visits to be useful Getting sufficient site visits to be useful Data quality Data quality

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A Methods – Photographic Vision Vision Casual visitors use picture posts and submit photos online Casual visitors use picture posts and submit photos online Status Status Program is up and running ( Program is up and running ( No posts in parks yet No posts in parks yet Challenges Challenges Approval for installation Approval for installation Management and interpretation of photos Management and interpretation of photos

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A Methods – Photographic Vision Vision Time lapse PlantCam systems to monitor plants and trees Time lapse PlantCam systems to monitor plants and trees Status Status AMC tested in 2010 AMC tested in 2010 NPS beginning to evaluate NPS beginning to evaluate Challenges Challenges Capturing all phenophases Capturing all phenophases Changing camera specs Changing camera specs Management and interpretation of photos Management and interpretation of photos

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A Methods – Photographic Vision Vision Webcam-based Phenocam system for forest stands and indivdual trees Webcam-based Phenocam system for forest stands and indivdual trees Status Status Program is up and running ( Program is up and running ( NPS site at Acadia NPS site at Acadia Challenges Challenges Equipment costs Equipment costs Needs infrastructure Needs infrastructure Management and interpretation of photos Management and interpretation of photos

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A Methods – Acoustic Vision Vision Schools build and deploy automated recorders and then analyze data Schools build and deploy automated recorders and then analyze data Status Status Evaluating Olympus ARU against Song Meter Evaluating Olympus ARU against Song Meter Challenges Challenges $250 per unit still out of reach of schools $250 per unit still out of reach of schools Calibration of mics Calibration of mics Automated data analysis Automated data analysis Data archiving Data archiving

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A Methods – Acoustic Vision Vision Staff deploy Song Meters and analyze data Staff deploy Song Meters and analyze data Status Status Deployed at 12 sites in four parks Deployed at 12 sites in four parks Similar (larger) project in Southeast Coast parks Similar (larger) project in Southeast Coast parks Challenges Challenges Equipment costs Equipment costs Staff time for deployment Staff time for deployment Automated data analysis Automated data analysis Data archiving Data archiving

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A Methods – Integration Vision Vision At least one site per park uses multiple methods At least one site per park uses multiple methods Purpose Purpose Estimate reliability of observer data Estimate reliability of observer data Evaluate effects of changes in observer methods Evaluate effects of changes in observer methods Automated methods will be gold standard… but gold is expensive! Automated methods will be gold standard… but gold is expensive! Status Status Analyzing 2010 observer and acoustic data Analyzing 2010 observer and acoustic data Will collocate observers and automated methods in 2011 Will collocate observers and automated methods in 2011

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A Conclusions Phenology is the local expression of climate change Phenology is the local expression of climate change Phenology monitoring Phenology monitoring Educates the public Educates the public Involves the public in stewardship Involves the public in stewardship Provides information needed for adaptation Provides information needed for adaptation

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A Conclusions Collaboration is essential Collaboration is essential Nationally consistent methods make data comparable Nationally consistent methods make data comparable No single organization can collect enough data No single organization can collect enough data Work together to solve challenges Work together to solve challenges Automated tools allow for evaluation of observer- based methods Automated tools allow for evaluation of observer- based methods Full protocol expected 2012 Full protocol expected 2012

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A Northeast Temperate Network 54 Elm Street, Woodstock, VT National Park Service U.S. Department of the Interior