1 Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium Friday 16th November 2012 Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield Triple bottom line impacts of community energy initiatives Crossing disciplinary boundaries with Bayesian Networks Philip A Leicester BSc DIS School of Civil and Building Engineering Centre for Renewable Energy and Systems Technology Loughborough University

2 Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium Friday 16th November 2012 Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield Presentation Objectives Introduce the research project. Describe the utility of Bayesian Networks as a methodology for this problem domain. Demonstrate the adoption of Solar PV and impact on fuel poverty as a case study. Highlight the future potential of the methodology Solicit feedback from domain experts!

3 Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium Friday 16th November 2012 Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield Research Aim: To develop and validate a methodology for the evaluation of the triple bottom line impacts of community energy initiatives.

4 Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium Friday 16th November 2012 Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

5 Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium Friday 16th November 2012 Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield Problems are wicked Parameters are characterised by uncertainty All models are wrong Quants and quals

6 Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium Friday 16th November 2012 Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield While fuel prices and low incomes are constituent factors, the real cause of fuel poverty is the energy inefficiency of the home. B. Boardman 2012

7 Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium Friday 16th November 2012 Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield 7....I find myself referring to reports published by CSE going back several years which presented findings that are extremely pertinent to the debates we are having now. So one, some or all of the following must apply: CSE is failing to communicate the things we’ve discovered; ‘the system’ (DECC, Ofgem, BIS, DoH and their former incarnations) isn’t listening to us; ‘the system’ is unable to assimilate evidence and analysis Ian Preston, “Fuel Poverty – reasons for being Seriously unimpressed.” CSE 14 November 2012.

8 Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium Friday 16th November 2012 Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

9 Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium Friday 16th November 2012 Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield Credit to L. Jouffe/Bayesia

10 Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium Friday 16th November 2012 Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

11 Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium Friday 16th November 2012 Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield Thomas Bayes Judae Pearl 1936

12 Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium Friday 16th November 2012 Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

13 Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium Friday 16th November 2012 Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

14 Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium Friday 16th November 2012 Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

15 Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium Friday 16th November 2012 Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

16 Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium Friday 16th November 2012 Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

17 Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium Friday 16th November 2012 Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

18 Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium Friday 16th November 2012 Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield With Grateful thanks to Ben Anderson, CRESEI, Essex University B. Anderson, “ESTIMATING SMALL AREA INCOME DEPRIVATION : AN ITERATIVE PROPORTIONAL FITTING APPROACH.” PAY STATEMENT

19 Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium Friday 16th November 2012 Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield 19

20 Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium Friday 16th November 2012 Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield 20

21 Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium Friday 16th November 2012 Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield 21

22 Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium Friday 16th November 2012 Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield 22

23 Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium Friday 16th November 2012 Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield Can solar PV help alleviate fuel poverty? Walker, G., Decentralised systems and fuel poverty: Are there any links or risks? Energy Policy 36,

24 Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium Friday 16th November 2012 Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield 24 YES 21.6% YES 17.5%

25 Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium Friday 16th November 2012 Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield 25

26 Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium Friday 16th November 2012 Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield Conclusion Bayesian Networks can propagate probabilistic causal relations and facilitate prognostic and diagnostic inference. Can combine expert opinion (subjective probability) with quantitative (frequentist probability) from multiple knowledge domains. Explicate a complex problem with intuitive causal map and systems thinking Facilitate decision making under uncertainty But... Require rich data and conditional probabilities... we need to share data!

27 Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium Friday 16th November 2012 Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield 27 END Thanks for listening

28 Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium Friday 16th November 2012 Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield Questions / Feedback More information Contact

29 Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium Friday 16th November 2012 Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

30 Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium Friday 16th November 2012 Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield 30 Leicester et al 2011