To understand base effect, we need to revisit Inflation to understand its implication. The annual Wholesale Price Index-based inflation rate fell in the.

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Presentation transcript:

To understand base effect, we need to revisit Inflation to understand its implication. The annual Wholesale Price Index-based inflation rate fell in the first week of June, the first time in well over three decades, mainly on account of a statistical base effect. So what is this base effect?

Understanding the concept of Base Effect – By Prof. Simply Simple Inflation is the ‘rate of change’ of prices. If for a certain week, the inflation figure is at 12%, it means the price index is 12% higher as compared to the corresponding week in the previous year.

To explain base-effect: Week index was at 100 (100 is just an example). Week index was at 98. Week index is at 112. Thus, inflation is 12% (denoting a 12% increase in prices). Here’s an example…

Week index continues to be at 112. So as compared to the base exactly one year ago ( week ) inflation would be at 14.29% [( )/98 ]*100 Now though the index continued to be the same as what it was in week 30 of 2009, the inflation went up as the corresponding base was lower in the previous year. So even if the prices of the goods that represent the index did not change as compared with the previous week ( i.e. week over week ), the inflation figure changed due to the effect of the previous year. This is the base-effect for inflation. Now

Every reported inflation number is with reference to the inflation number that existed exactly one year back re-based to 100 To make it more simple, if we say inflation is 5%, it means that if the price of goods comprising the inflation basket was 100 exactly a year back, it is 105 today. Which means..

The base effect relates to inflation in the corresponding period of the previous year: Thus if the inflation rate was too low in the corresponding period of the previous year, even a smaller rise in the Price Index will arithmetically give a high rate of inflation now. On the other hand, if the inflation rate was too high in the corresponding period of the previous year a large price rise might land up presenting itself as minor rise in inflation due to the base effect. Thus the term ‘base effect’ has a lot of impact while ascertaining inflation numbers and can sometimes appear to misrepresent ground realities because it is dependant on a number that existed one year back. To sum up

Hope you have now understood the concept of Base Effect Do write to me at